The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ppnewbie
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:02 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 9:42 am
Well, not anymore... ;)

All Is Well!!!! Buy stocks. Interest rates going up! War? Hah! Gold is useless!

This is so typical of the past 14 years I have owned this yellow crap. O0
Its falling like a stone on the other hand it is a little strange that this non thing can consistently be traded for about 1900 green papers backed by missiles and guns.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:03 am

Against the Pacific Peso (AUD), Gold is the only thing going up ;D
25% VGS, 25% Gold 50% VBND
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Aussie GoldSmithPP - 25% PMGOLD, 75% VDCO
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 15, 2022 11:30 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Feb 17, 2022 10:01 pm
Murph, being a big time gold owner since 2008, I would like nothing better, but gold always digests gains, which it now seems to be doing. It seems exceedingly rare to have multiple up days in a row.

I just read this earlier page of the thread thinking it it was the most recent page, but anyway…
2008, when a dollar bought $1.32 in 2022 dollars?* That’s how I think of gold. I don’t compare it to stocks because I don’t own an all stock portfolio.
Like, my body would not enjoy a pure manganese diet but I still need some manganese.

*source: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/
Desert wrote:
Tue Mar 15, 2022 10:02 am
I bought more gold purely based on dualstow's sig, and I'll be quite disappointed if he lets me down. O0
😂
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 16, 2022 2:41 pm

A little volatile today!

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Mar 16, 2022 3:37 pm

Hey it took me to the first unread post. Yay and Thanks!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 16, 2022 4:36 pm

Even though Cortotholemew/Budpassi is making sense, I’m going to buy gold if it drops below 1900. Physical coins that i’m never going to sell. If it goes down further, not my problem.
I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 3:37 pm
Hey it took me to the first unread post. Yay and Thanks!
I still get taken to p139. Maybe I need to clear my cache or something
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 16, 2022 5:01 pm

Oh, I'm not selling my physical....but I am selling puts on GLD to create income, which so far has been working well.

This has been able to turn gold into a productive asset, finally for me.

And one, when it drops, I actually get a little excited about because drops are perfect times to sell puts.

Crazy volatility due to the Fed and war, I can do with less of.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 16, 2022 5:17 pm

I’m just referring to this post. viewtopic.php?f=5&t=4654&start=3475#p238864
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Mar 16, 2022 8:07 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Wed Mar 16, 2022 3:37 pm

Hey it took me to the first unread post. Yay and Thanks!


Not me. Still two pages back.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:13 pm

I had forgotten that if you log in to APMEX it’ll show you all your holdings and how much your treasure is worth.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:16 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:13 pm
I had forgotten that if you log in to APMEX it’ll show you all your holdings and how much your treasure is worth.
Does the IRS have an APMEX login?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 23, 2022 3:28 pm

I don’t know O0 Not yet?
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:03 pm

Buy gold before the peace talks turn to slush? I'm tempted.
The price will probably sink down again, even lower. I'm probably still going to buy some for the long term. All the physical I buy is for the long term.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:16 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:03 pm
Buy gold before the peace talks turn to slush? I'm tempted.
The price will probably sink down again, even lower. I'm probably still going to buy some for the long term. All the physical I buy is for the long term.
Is your entry price still $1,900? No idea where gold is headed from here but I did add some shares of IAU today. Just investing a bit of what we've been able to add to retirement accounts. Missed the last stock dip but am expecting that there will be plenty more stock turmoil as rates rise.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 29, 2022 1:04 pm

barrett wrote:
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:16 pm
... Is your entry price still $1,900? ...
About $1,900. Once upon a time, Medium Tex wrote about the experience of holding a sovereign. I've never owned any, having stuck to 1oz coins all this time. Now I own a 1/2 oz and a 1/4 oz eagle.

A gold sovereign is a little under a quarter of an ounce in gold. It's inefficient for investing, but damnit I want one. Or two. And the price is just above $500 apiece. If it goes below $500, I'll buy those because it's a nice roundish number.

And, back to 1 oz eagles or krugs for $1,900.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 11, 2022 2:56 pm

Stocks are down. Hooray for gold?
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:18 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 11, 2022 2:56 pm
Stocks are down. Hooray for gold?
Always hooray for gold. The major retail seller of gold coins in BG had deliveries of approximately 1-5 weeks (i.e. not in stock). Haven't seen that since 12 years, just in the recent days they got enough in stock.

By the way, an interesting fact (and another hooray) taken from the new article on Tyler's site

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Apr 16, 2022 4:07 pm

out of curiosity, does Bulgaria still mint gold coins?
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Sun Apr 17, 2022 7:14 am

Yes, of course they do, however only 2 types - common circulation coins and commemorative coins. They do not mint any sort of coins that can be used for precious metal investing. Commemorative are definitely not in that class - as they are normally minted in quite limited series and its very hard to get one - usually in the first day they are being offered by BNB (Bulgarian National Bank, who is the sole owner of the mint, too) all coins are already sold. Anyway, I am philatelist (mainly inheriting stuff from my old man) and do not have any interest in numismatics, so not really aware of how profitable Bulgarian coins can be (but guess it might be quite profitable..)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Apr 17, 2022 5:02 pm

No bullion then. Too bad.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:08 am

US$1996oz
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:55 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:08 am
US$1996oz
Indeed your signature may come true. But I thought you are already in the category Leo refers ... ;D ;D

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:28 am

Oh yes. I am a bit older than him.
If gold hits 3000oz I’ll be impressed. O0 Right now I’m just pleased and wishing I had loaded up in winter.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Thinking of a few pp forum members as I read about the sound of pickleball annoying the neighbors O0 (WSJ)
There’s also an amusing article about buying iBonds in the WSJ
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:53 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:28 am
Oh yes. I am a bit older than him.
If gold hits 3000oz I’ll be impressed. O0 Right now I’m just pleased and wishing I had loaded up in winter.
Yes, $3000 would indeed be impressive!

And thanks for the sig update on Better Call Saul. 8)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Mon Apr 18, 2022 4:39 pm

Vil wrote:
Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:18 pm
Stocks_Gold.jpg
My favorite way to look at gold vs. bonds. All data from Portfoliovisualizer CAGR/MaxDD 50/50 stocks/gold compared to 50/50 stocks/ITTs. Starting year to now.

All nominal returns

1972 10.95/-33.29, 9.13/-22.24
1982 8.40/-26.02, 9.71/-21.63
1992 8.60/-26.02, 8.11/-21.63
2002 10.25/-26.02, 7.18/-21.63
2012 8.89/-10.02, 8.48/-8.05

TSM 10.75/-50.89
GLD 7.68/-61.78
ITT 6.63/-10.71

All we can really conclude is that things are start date dependent. But let's say we all agree that the "best" growth comes from stocks, then what?

50/25/25 = 9.99/-21.38, or equal weight = 9.43/-18.73 or PP = 8.28/-13.07.

That 7% extra drawdown is probably worth it over most investing or withdrawal periods. If you are more interested in the latter phase of life I highly recommend Earlyretirementnow with the spreadsheet you can find in post #28. The "by decade" is my "go to" of the graphics..

Bottom line: This stuff is highly variable.
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