The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm

Yeah I'm not so sure that situation is going to boost gold for U.S. holders, as gold is always relative to the currency and economy you are in at the moment.

What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:16 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
Yeah I'm not so sure that situation is going to boost gold for U.S. holders, as gold is always relative to the currency and economy you are in at the moment.

What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Agreed on the inevitability of a major crisis.

Timing is another matter. I've been holding gold for over 40 years, and although I can't complain about my investment results, I expected the major crisis long ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:42 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:16 pm

Agreed on the inevitability of a major crisis.

Timing is another matter. I've been holding gold for over 40 years, and although I can't complain about my investment results, I expected the major crisis long ago.
Agreed. I'm still only 37 years old, so I think it's safe to say it's likely to happen in my lifetime at the least. And if it doesn't, then well I just paid an insurance premium that I never used. There are worse things that could happen to my investments, haha. In the meantime, I've been sleeping very well since I transitioned my portfolio over, and that is worth it in and of itself. Now my luxury problem is something I read MediumTex post in the Bogleheads thread, that I need to find new things to do with the time I used to spend worrying about my investments :o
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:06 pm

As long as Central banks print money to cover bad debt and buy gold reserves ....gold will still have its place imo. I've always found that interesting about non-gold believers…how they gloss over the fact that banks print funny money (for the people) and buy gold for their reserves!? If central banks move away from gold for its reserves....then yes....that will be the telltale sign the insurance policy wont pay off.

There is no denying the rest of the world is segueing away from US dollar. (Its reserve status has been constantly eroding for last 10 years or so) I'm starting to the believe a full on "flip the switch" catastrophic monetary collapse will not happen though....I lean toward the slow death spiral philosophy that we've seen for the last ~100years. (this reinforced further by MMT and Socialism as of late)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Feb 27, 2019 4:40 pm

Now my luxury problem is something I read MediumTex post in the Bogleheads thread, that I need to find new things to do with the time I used to spend worrying about my investments :o
History, golf, shooting guns, chess, science, baking, brewing alcohol, exercising... So many interesting things out there. Try picking a couple things to focus on for a few weeks then switching it up.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by gaddyslapper007 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:27 am

sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
Perhaps rehypothecation?.....I heard on podcast a while back where this issue was more prevalent before the 08 crash...some assests were theoretically "owned" / lent out by factor of 7X. The Wall Street "expert" said now days maybe a factor of 3X.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/re ... cation.asp
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:46 am

sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
I think big gold ETF's are the safest form of paper gold, because like you mentioned they do have large stores of gold. They also have the SEC to deal with. While the ones that honor redemption could experience a run, it shouldn't effect the ETF price too much as redeemed gold shares would be taken out of the float. The biggest risk in those is that if gold really goes through the roof, the ETF fund could choose to cash everyone out and hold or sell the gold for themselves, leaving the share holders that were relying on gold for protection out in the cold. If the U.S. did an overnight devaluation like in the 30's or 70's again, and the ETF companies got whisper of this in advance, I could see them cashing people out in money that was going to be less valuable tomorrow to hold gold that would be more valuable. That would be my only real fear in the major gold ETF's.

What worries me more than ETF's however is a lot of banks, gold dealers, etc essentially sell nothing more than promissory notes. These are more of a promise to fulfill on redemption without the full physical backing. They are taking an uncovered short position, taking your money for nothing now and promising to purchase the gold or pay the difference when/if you redeem. This means there is more gold that is owned and traded than actually exists. I know JP Morgan was rumored to at one point to have had uncovered shorts on gold in quantities greater than the entire supply of the U.S. reserves. They have since covered and are now long both gold and silver, but they are not the only large company that issues uncovered shorts on gold. If we really had a massive run up in gold and everyone went to cash those promissory notes in... well one could imagine what that would do to the price of gold. It would essentially be a short squeeze and send the price up through the stratosphere. I'm sure that at a certain point a lot of the paper gold issuers would choose to default instead of covering their shorts, especially if the price doubles or triples as it would lead to greater than 100% losses.
Last edited by pmward on Thu Feb 28, 2019 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:46 am
sophie wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 7:30 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:26 pm
What may benefit gold in the coming years is that debt levels in the U.S. and around the world are just ballooning, and they are only going to get worse as modern monetary theory and socialism inevitably are going to spread. There is no realistic possibility I see of us turning back and not walking off the cliff. Politicians are going to continue to spend globally until they run out of money and people willing to lend to them. I also think that the "trade wars" are a mirage for what is actually a currency war in disguise. Eventually there is going to be a currency crisis. Just like the financial crisis in 2008, I think it's going to be a domino effect that is going to effect the entire world. I don't think it's going to start with us, but likely will start somewhere in Europe then likely spread to Asia. Eventually the dominos will start falling and it will topple us over as well. I just don't see a plausible argument for there not to be a mass global devaluation in the coming years. Even central banks realize this, as they have been quietly building gold reserves like it's going out of style over the last few years. This is not even to mention the issues we have in corporate and personal debt. There's a lot of bills coming due, and we are bound to test the tipping point sooner rather than later. This currency crisis may not happen this year or next, but it's bound to happen sometime in my lifetime. Just knowing that, it's worth holding gold as an insurance policy, because gold will double or even triple damn near overnight in a currency crisis. When this happens, we all will be glad that we got in early and patiently waited, especially if we are holding hard gold as opposed to paper gold.

As an aside on the paper gold topic, I personally believe the paper gold market is what is holding the gold price down right now, as there is more "paper gold" being created and traded than there is gold to actually back it up. I think that when gold does spike next there will be a run on these paper gold holdings and they will fail, further adding to the spike in gold. Those holding physical gold will be the big winners here. Anyway, this is my theory at least. We will see what actually happens.
Interesting analysis!

Can you elaborate more on the comment about gold ETFs having insufficient reserves? I've been wondering for quite a while about the wisdom of trusting them, but they claim to be fully backed up by physical gold.
I think big gold ETF's are the safest form of paper gold, because like you mentioned they do have large stores of gold. They also have the SEC to deal with. While the ones that honor redemption could experience a run, it shouldn't effect the ETF price too much as redeemed gold shares would be taken out of the float. The biggest risk in those is that if gold really goes through the roof, the ETF fund could choose to cash everyone out and hold or sell the gold for themselves, leaving the share holders that were relying on gold for protection out in the cold.

What worries me more than ETF's however is a lot of banks, gold dealers, etc essentially sell nothing more than promissory notes. These are more of a promise to fulfill on redemption without the full physical backing. They are taking an uncovered short position, taking your money for nothing now and promising to purchase the gold or pay the difference when/if you redeem. This means there is more gold that is owned and traded than actually exists. I know JP Morgan was rumored to at one point to have had uncovered shorts on gold in quantities greater than the entire supply of the U.S. reserves. They have since covered and are now long both gold and silver, but they are not the only large company that issues uncovered shorts on gold. If we really had a massive run up in gold and everyone went to cash those promissory notes in... well one could imagine what that would do to the price of gold. It would essentially be a short squeeze and send the price up through the stratosphere. I'm sure that at a certain point a lot of the paper gold issuers would choose to default instead of covering their shorts, especially if the price doubles or triples as it would lead to greater than 100% losses.
This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
What are their prices and fees like?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:18 am

You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:20 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:40 am

This is why I like the Texas Bullion Depository. They send you pictures of your actual holdings as they are checked into the vault, and will provide serial numbers for bars on request if there are too many to show clearly in the pictures.

No paper gold there!
What are their prices and fees like?
Basically 50 basis points a year with a minimum of $25/quarter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:29 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:00 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:20 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:55 am


What are their prices and fees like?
Basically 50 basis points a year with a minimum of $25/quarter.
Plus the ridiculous bid/ask spread on physical gold.
Currently about 4% on Eagles, less on some bars, if you have a wholesale account anyway.

And if you hold for 10 years, you can divide that by 10 per year, obviously.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 am

Same story as last decade, sell Gold and LTT’s...no one wants them. 15% each is still too high...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:01 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 am
Same story as last decade, sell Gold and LTT’s...no one wants them. 15% each is still too high...
In 1999 15% LTT's and gold would have seemed too high as well. Anything less than 100% stock seemed silly. Look at the decade that followed. Gold and LTT's out performed. Not saying a repeat is going to happen, but I think that we have more in common with 1999 at the moment than 2009. In hind site, sure 15% to gold and LTT's was not great over the last decade, but that may be exactly why it may be prudent in the coming years. The moment holding a specific asset class seems the silliest is usually the very best time to be holding it.

In hindsite, if you could go back to 1999 you would be selling completely out of equities and going into treasuries and gold at the time when equities were the hot ticket. In 2009, when nobody wanted equities, you would have been backing up the van. Well we are not blessed with the ability to see the future, but the contrarian bet is as likely to play out as it was in both 1999 and 2009 (as a side note, isn't it ironic that the years ending in 9 have tended to be major turning points in the market the last couple decades?).
Last edited by pmward on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:05 am

pmward wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:01 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 am
Same story as last decade, sell Gold and LTT’s...no one wants them. 15% each is still too high...
In 1999 15% LTT's and gold would have seemed too high as well. Anything less than 100% stock seemed silly. Look at the decade that followed. Gold and LTT's out performed. Not saying a repeat is going to happen, but I think that we have more in common with 1999 at the moment than 2009. In hind site, sure 15% to gold and LTT's was not great over the last decade, but that may be exactly why it may be prudent in the coming years. The moment holding a specific asset class seems the silliest is usually the very best time to be holding it.
I’ve heard this countless times...don’t buy into it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:09 am

Those who won't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:19 am

At the end of the day, I'm feeling more bearish than bullish on equities over the next decade. Even still, I have 42% of my total portfolio in equities (60/40 in my 401k and Golden Butterfly in my larger taxable accounts and IRA's) because I may be wrong. Of course, I do look at the small caps in the GB as a variable portfolio, so if I get proven right, I may re-allocate some of that accordingly. But we will see. While I have a bearish view over the next 10 years, in the short and medium term I don't currently feel very strongly either way. I think the odds of new highs are equal to the odds of December being the beginning a new sustained downtrend. It's kind of a coin flip. I'm kind of just in wait and see mode, and letting the balanced portfolio sort out the rest. At least with this allocation I'm mentally able to stay fully invested come what may, and I have 20% of my portfolio that is currently bullishly aligned that I have the freedom to flex around should I start to feel strong bearish convictions in the short to medium term.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:48 am

stuper1 wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:09 am
Those who won't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Heard that too...
You will only see the light when you remove the PP shackles.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pm

Yeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.

;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:30 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pm
Yeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.

;)
Yes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I'm not surprised the rally ran out of gas right at that major resistance level, I wouldn't have expected anything less matter of fact. That doesn't mean the war is over, sometimes it takes a few weeks to shake out the weak hands prior to finally conquering a major resistance level. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now. Pretty much every market across the board appears to be losing momentum.
Last edited by pmward on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:33 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pm
Yeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.

;)
Yes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now.
I don't disagree with you at all. All I want to get across is that gold has been one frustrating asset. Whether that's just how it works, or it is manipulated, it still causes an unnecessary emotional response from me!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:39 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:33 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:30 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pm
Yeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.

;)
Yes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now.
I don't disagree with you at all. All I want to get across is that gold has been one frustrating asset. Whether that's just how it works, or it is manipulated, it still causes an unnecessary emotional response from me!
It's nothing specific to gold, it's just the way markets work in the short term. Every volatile asset can be just as frustrating in the right time periods. When someone focuses exclusively on the one asset in a balanced portfolio that's underperformed to the exclusion of all others, it's going to be frustrating and emotional. I made a very large purchase of gold and long term treasuries a few weeks back. I'm under water on both right now. It sucks, but I think that's just kind of how this thing works. My portfolio as a whole is still up in that time frame. If there weren't one or two assets I was frustrated with at any given time it would mean I wasn't truly diversified.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:43 pm

pmward, none of us here are attending their first rodeo.
I too used to defend this portfolio, but after removing myself by selling Gold and LTT’s to 15% can clearly see that the portfolio “sounds” great, but it’s not. It’s a cowards portfolio and a poor one at that.
pmward
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:54 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:43 pm
pmward, none of us here are attending their first rodeo.
I too used to defend this portfolio, but after removing myself by selling Gold and LTT’s to 15% can clearly see that the portfolio “sounds” great, but it’s not. It’s a cowards portfolio and a poor one at that.
If you really feel that way, I don't understand why you don't just sell it all and be done with it? If you really truly believe that the portfolio as a whole can be judged by the behavior of a couple of its assets over a short period of time, then just free yourself from the stress of it all and move on. What keeps you from selling the rest of the gold and LTT's? What allocation do you feel is better and why? What do you define as an acceptable return? What do you define as an acceptable drawdown in worst case scenarios? How would your better asset allocation accomplish your definitions of acceptable returns balanced against risk/drawdowns? How would your better asset allocation fit your specific need and ability to take risk better than something like a PP, GB, all weather portfolio, etc.
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