The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:28 am

very little trading in tlt this year ..i did some-in gold but when the trend is down more than up it is hard to do. i am still down in gold from the pp
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:43 am

Looks steady to me.





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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:47 am

i am close to even but not even yet ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:06 am

Just makes me laugh...up 1.4 to down .6 in 20 minutes...don’t care, feels good.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:16 am

everything flipped on a dime ..moderna ceo said vaccines may not work well on the new one.

but the reality is no one knows much yet
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:56 am

End of month bullshit...
We’ll see how we close
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:46 pm

According to Quicken, my gold is down 0.6% for trailing 12 months; down 6.2% YTD

I rebalanced some into Gold in May of this year, which really hurt -- most expensive Gold I've bought to date!

[Edit / Note: my overall retirement allocation to Gold targets ~15%; currently closer to 12%. Yeah, performance has not been near TSM, but, I worry much less now over my retirement portfolio than I used to.]
Last edited by Dieter on Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:49 pm

it wouldnt be so bad except gold cant seem to get any traction …other assets like commodities or bitcoin can make 6% up in an afternoon ….but gold just cant get to first base in this environment which is why i dont want gold as my only hedge going forward.

i want it combined with other inflation oriented assets
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:00 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:49 pm
it wouldnt be so bad except gold cant seem to get any traction …other assets like commodities or bitcoin can make 6% up in an afternoon ….but gold just cant get to first base in this environment which is why i dont want gold as my only hedge going forward.

i want it combined with other inflation oriented assets
Agree 100%
Just sits there doing absolutely nothing like a deer in the headlights or a 5 year old whose lost his mommy at the store.
What a waste of space, both mentally and physically.

You would never hear me say this about bonds, the true equity diversifier. Check on those for some idea of how a volatile asset is supposed to respond.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by flyingpylon » Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:18 am

Here's a different perspective from Paul Belanger:

2021-12-11 Current Gold and Equity Valuation
Fundamentally gold should increase in price by about 7.5% per year over the very long term plus a little extra boost from the fact that it would need to increase in price by 30% currently just to revert back to historic valuations. Fundamentally stocks need to fall by about 50% to revert back to historic norms; however, with currency being printed at a rate of 7.5% per year stocks could merely remain stagnant to revert back to normal (a lost decade similar to the 2000’s). A stock investor could take solace in the fact that he or she would be collecting a 1.25% dividend during the wait. It’s not much, but hey it’s better than banks are paying! In my view a long term investor will be more handsomely rewarded in gold over the next 10-20 years than in the S&P500.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:38 am

flyingpylon wrote:
Mon Dec 13, 2021 10:18 am
Here's a different perspective from Paul Belanger:

2021-12-11 Current Gold and Equity Valuation
Fundamentally gold should increase in price by about 7.5% per year over the very long term plus a little extra boost from the fact that it would need to increase in price by 30% currently just to revert back to historic valuations. Fundamentally stocks need to fall by about 50% to revert back to historic norms; however, with currency being printed at a rate of 7.5% per year stocks could merely remain stagnant to revert back to normal (a lost decade similar to the 2000’s). A stock investor could take solace in the fact that he or she would be collecting a 1.25% dividend during the wait. It’s not much, but hey it’s better than banks are paying! In my view a long term investor will be more handsomely rewarded in gold over the next 10-20 years than in the S&P500.
Sorry this is meaningless to me, just like gold 5000 or 10000. Just not going to happen.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:42 am

Wholesale prices up 9.6%, gold down .7%
I rest my case.
Good luck to you all holding this J U N K

Also, no more excuses that USD is strong, it’s not!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:02 am

It's disappointing, to be sure. Even stranger to me though is seeing the yield on the 30-year treasury hovering around 1.8%. That would seem to indicate that investors still don't see inflation lasting for a prolonged period when pretty much everyone who is talking about it has dropped the term "transitory".
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:07 am

All going to plan!

Selling stocks in Jan to fund more gold and silver buying!

Maybe it's insane, which is exactly what I should be doing. I think I've said in the past if at every opportunity I did the opposite of what my gut what telling me I'd be retired.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:14 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:07 am
All going to plan!

Selling stocks in Jan to fund more gold and silver buying!

Maybe it's insane, which is exactly what I should be doing. I think I've said in the past if at every opportunity I did the opposite of what my gut what telling me I'd be retired.
But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.
Like I’ve also said before, would be nice to rebalance out of Gold to stocks.

Barrett, FED raising to kill inflation before it even starts is bullish for bonds and negative for gold. They will put the brakes on and f it up as usual.

Gold really is useless and I remember saying 10+ years ago that when inflation hits gold will do nothing. Useless as usual.

Stocks down, gold down, bonds down, PP down
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:14 am

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.
But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:34 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:14 am

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.
But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:48 am

Some things will come down as supply’s get better .

One third of the cpi is the price of new and used cars which will fall .

Labor Increases will stay but you can bet that raises going forward will be smaller for those who have had substantial increases already , so over time that will settle down .

Needless to say I don’t keep just gold as my inflation hedge ….I have cut that way down and use gbtc and dbc as well.

To many easy ways to get coverage with all these specialized etfs ..golds day has likely come and gone in that respect …it’s not out totally but it shouldn’t be the only hedge against the dollar and inflation
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:03 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:48 am
Some things will come down as supply’s get better .

One third of the cpi is the price of new and used cars which will fall .

Labor Increases will stay but you can bet that raises going forward will be smaller for those who have had substantial increases already , so over time that will settle down .

Needless to say I don’t keep just gold as my inflation hedge ….I have cut that way down and use gbtc and dbc as well.

To many easy ways to get coverage with all these specialized etfs ..golds day has likely come and gone in that respect …it’s not out totally but it shouldn’t be the only hedge against the dollar and inflation
Amen
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:33 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:34 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:14 am

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.
But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.
I'm not Cortopassi but he's posted on here numerous times that he's had much better returns with broad, PP-inspired asset allocation than he ever did before when trying to figure out what the next hot thing was going to be. Peace of mind is super important. I would argue that it's far better to have peace of mind and lower returns than to be wringing one's hands all the time and trying to optimize returns all the time.

But everyone is different. That's something that Tyler comes back to time and again in his writings.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:46 am

barrett wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:33 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:34 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:27 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 8:14 am

But why? Gold isn’t doing anything for you.
But it is. Peace of mind. I don't have to have the top % return in investing.
Your peace of mind is a false sense of security and built on quicksand. There is nothing special at all about the PP and it has proven once more this year that Gold is a useless diversifier. Anything tied to inflation (eg DBC) is beating the pants off the metal. Nobody cares about gold anymore and it shows.
I'm not Cortopassi but he's posted on here numerous times that he's had much better returns with broad, PP-inspired asset allocation than he ever did before when trying to figure out what the next hot thing was going to be. Peace of mind is super important. I would argue that it's far better to have peace of mind and lower returns than to be wringing one's hands all the time and trying to optimize returns all the time.

But everyone is different. That's something that Tyler comes back to time and again in his writings.
Correct; I too wanted peace of mind with the PP but it has not delivered at all. Maybe once or twice out of 10 years have I actually seen it offset stock losses to any degree. That’s not peace of mind in my books.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:48 am

If you're going to define "success" as tracking the stock market, then why not just be 100% stocks?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:30 am

Xan wrote:
Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:48 am
If you're going to define "success" as tracking the stock market, then why not just be 100% stocks?
Gold has had ample opportunity to do anything besides go down over the last year. We hold it according to HB or Tex or Craig or any of the other so called gurus for times of “unexpected” inflation. We have been talking about inflation for over a year now and all readings have been grossly larger than expectations. Gold still can’t respond and is also 15% lower than it’s all time high.

I would never hold 100% stock and don’t make that recommendation here. I will always hold fixed income as it is the true diversifier. Gold is useless for inflation and with Bitcoin that can now cross borders who needs the stuff anyway.

Gold moved up a couple of bucks and then got slammed. Makes me sick holding this crap. Waste of time and money and I no longer mention the PP to anyone I know. It’s lose/lose with this portfolio.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:33 am

Regards the 30-year bond, I suspect the rate has more to do with purchasing by central banks than what you suggested has to do with. They need to keep the charade going.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:39 am

I think it has to do with investors realizing that the economy is weak, the individual is struggling and any rate hikes will result in a catastrophic outcome. No one believes the FED’s bullshit and continue to buy LTT’s accordingly.
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