Currently about 4% on Eagles, less on some bars, if you have a wholesale account anyway.
And if you hold for 10 years, you can divide that by 10 per year, obviously.
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Currently about 4% on Eagles, less on some bars, if you have a wholesale account anyway.
In 1999 15% LTT's and gold would have seemed too high as well. Anything less than 100% stock seemed silly. Look at the decade that followed. Gold and LTT's out performed. Not saying a repeat is going to happen, but I think that we have more in common with 1999 at the moment than 2009. In hind site, sure 15% to gold and LTT's was not great over the last decade, but that may be exactly why it may be prudent in the coming years. The moment holding a specific asset class seems the silliest is usually the very best time to be holding it.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 amSame story as last decade, sell Gold and LTT’s...no one wants them. 15% each is still too high...
I’ve heard this countless times...don’t buy into it.pmward wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:01 amIn 1999 15% LTT's and gold would have seemed too high as well. Anything less than 100% stock seemed silly. Look at the decade that followed. Gold and LTT's out performed. Not saying a repeat is going to happen, but I think that we have more in common with 1999 at the moment than 2009. In hind site, sure 15% to gold and LTT's was not great over the last decade, but that may be exactly why it may be prudent in the coming years. The moment holding a specific asset class seems the silliest is usually the very best time to be holding it.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:15 amSame story as last decade, sell Gold and LTT’s...no one wants them. 15% each is still too high...
Yes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I'm not surprised the rally ran out of gas right at that major resistance level, I wouldn't have expected anything less matter of fact. That doesn't mean the war is over, sometimes it takes a few weeks to shake out the weak hands prior to finally conquering a major resistance level. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now. Pretty much every market across the board appears to be losing momentum.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pmYeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.
I don't disagree with you at all. All I want to get across is that gold has been one frustrating asset. Whether that's just how it works, or it is manipulated, it still causes an unnecessary emotional response from me!pmward wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:30 pmYes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pmYeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.
It's nothing specific to gold, it's just the way markets work in the short term. Every volatile asset can be just as frustrating in the right time periods. When someone focuses exclusively on the one asset in a balanced portfolio that's underperformed to the exclusion of all others, it's going to be frustrating and emotional. I made a very large purchase of gold and long term treasuries a few weeks back. I'm under water on both right now. It sucks, but I think that's just kind of how this thing works. My portfolio as a whole is still up in that time frame. If there weren't one or two assets I was frustrated with at any given time it would mean I wasn't truly diversified.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:33 pmI don't disagree with you at all. All I want to get across is that gold has been one frustrating asset. Whether that's just how it works, or it is manipulated, it still causes an unnecessary emotional response from me!pmward wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:30 pmYes, well if you look at the full picture this week the dollar has been falling alongside gold... which is not normal. So you could still be proven right. If the dollar continues to fall, gold will go up. At the very least, technically gold was extended and due for at least a short term pull-back. The pull-back could just be a consolidation to finally push through that big $1350 resistance level. It also could be a short term market top. We will see. I wouldn't place too much emphasis on one single weeks action either way. Gold, equities, bonds, currencies... everything seems to be very technically unsure of what direction it wants to go in right now.Cortopassi wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:04 pmYeah, same old song and dance. Gold back under $1300. Who could have guessed. I really thought this time it was to the moon. Really this time.
If you really feel that way, I don't understand why you don't just sell it all and be done with it? If you really truly believe that the portfolio as a whole can be judged by the behavior of a couple of its assets over a short period of time, then just free yourself from the stress of it all and move on. What keeps you from selling the rest of the gold and LTT's? What allocation do you feel is better and why? What do you define as an acceptable return? What do you define as an acceptable drawdown in worst case scenarios? How would your better asset allocation accomplish your definitions of acceptable returns balanced against risk/drawdowns? How would your better asset allocation fit your specific need and ability to take risk better than something like a PP, GB, all weather portfolio, etc.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:43 pmpmward, none of us here are attending their first rodeo.
I too used to defend this portfolio, but after removing myself by selling Gold and LTT’s to 15% can clearly see that the portfolio “sounds” great, but it’s not. It’s a cowards portfolio and a poor one at that.
I have read your history, as I have read through a good chunk of the topics on this board over the last few months. That being said, I don't think comparing two portfolios returns over a 2 month time frame, or even over a 10 year timeframe, really paints the full picture.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:06 pmRead my history if you care to for an understanding.
My 70/30 is up 1.4 million YTD
My PP is up < 300K YTD
Why the HUGE variance?
Gold and LTT’s that’s why.
Now extrapolate this for the last 10 years and tell me why the PP is not worth the time...
Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:06 pmRead my history if you care to for an understanding.
My 70/30 is up 1.4 million YTD
My PP is up < 300K YTD
Why the HUGE variance?
Gold and LTT’s that’s why.
Now extrapolate this for the last 10 years and tell me why the PP is not worth the time...
The way the PP handled the market crash in gold was one of the things that helped convince me to stay with the PP. I think the overall portfolio was only down around 2% when that happened, at least for me. When I was in a stock heavy portfolio and stocks crashed, it was a lot more devastating.buddtholomew wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:53 pmI’ve sat through a decline in Gold on par with any market crash. I also had about 900K invested in 2008 so I think I qualify as living through a market crash.