The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm
This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg
Obviously from Dalio's book?
Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm

This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg


Obviously from Dalio's book?


Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?


Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm
vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm
This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg
Obviously from Dalio's book?
Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?
Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?
Yeah, some guy. 😆😆😆
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:40 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:26 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:17 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:15 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Feb 25, 2022 7:52 pm

This part in bold is a big reason why the naysayers, well, nay. They don’t get that currency crises arise from seemingly out of nowhere and transpire extremely quickly. They simply aren’t captured in most traditional return data sets used by the likes of Morningstar etc.


75806B68-B497-4FC6-9BB6-514DD9231AC8.jpeg


Obviously from Dalio's book?


Correct!

I really love the book. It’s honestly so enlightening and insightful. At least, I think it is.

It’s really a blueprint for global macro investing. There are PP vibes throughout the tome, don’t you think?


Didn't some here accuse Dalio of stealing some of Harry's ideas without giving proper attribution?


Yeah, some guy. 😆😆😆


Was it you??!!!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:47 pm

vnatale wrote:
Sat Feb 26, 2022 12:40 pm

Was it you??!!!
Lol yes!
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:40 pm

Just for fun I hollowed out an old digital watch and stuck a maplegram inside in order to create a poor man's version of that gold embedded watch I posted about earlier.

0.jpg
0.jpg (144.14 KiB) Viewed 4240 times
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Feb 28, 2022 6:33 am

😱 That looks suspiciously like your dad’s old watch.
Could you at least line up the gold with that open circle?
RIP Marcello Gandini
whatchamacallit
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 750
Joined: Mon Oct 01, 2012 7:32 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm

As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

:-\
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:53 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm
As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

:-\
I totally agree. If gold goes to $5000 grab your bug out bag and your gold and head for the hills.
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:53 pm

The way the west has been able to freeze Russia’s dollar and euro reserves, I would think many central banks will give more consideration to accumulating gold.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Fri Mar 04, 2022 9:40 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm
As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it

:-\
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0k5aVLi_yhM
(language warning)
ppnewbie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 850
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 6:04 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ppnewbie » Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:29 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 6:53 pm
The way the west has been able to freeze Russia’s dollar and euro reserves, I would think many central banks will give more consideration to accumulating gold.
Geopolitical 3d chess. Russias western assets frozen. US and Europe virtue signals themselves off a cliff by banning Russian oil spiking the cost to 200 dollars a barrel, blowing up their respective economies, Russia and China settle transactions in gold. Russia only takes oil payment in gold - comex (the paper gold market that is alleged 100 to 1 paper to physical (alleged) blows up as contracts are redeemed for physical to pay. Physical gold spikes to 5000. Personal ownership is made illegal in the West. China manufactures a crisis to take back Taiwan. Russia, India, China - decide green paper is dumb. The dollar dies. My grand children or great grand children contemplate moving to the East for a better life.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Sat Mar 05, 2022 6:33 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 11:29 pm
Geopolitical 3d chess. Russias western assets frozen. US and Europe virtue signals themselves off a cliff by banning Russian oil spiking the cost to 200 dollars a barrel, blowing up their respective economies, Russia and China settle transactions in gold. Russia only takes oil payment in gold - comex (the paper gold market that is alleged 100 to 1 paper to physical (alleged) blows up as contracts are redeemed for physical to pay. Physical gold spikes to 5000. Personal ownership is made illegal in the West. China manufactures a crisis to take back Taiwan. Russia, India, China - decide green paper is dumb. The dollar dies. My grand children or great grand children contemplate moving to the East for a better life.
Well that was a happy hypothetical to start my weekend/Saturday morning ???
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:32 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:31 pm
As much as I hated gold price declines, I find that I hate the increases more because of what comes with it
My philosophy is, things are bad. As long as things are bad, I want gold to kick in and do its thing. A sort of silv- uh, a sort of consolation prize.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:20 pm

$2000. Wow.
User avatar
Xan
Administrator
Administrator
Posts: 4392
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 1:51 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:40 pm

Saw an article on WSJ that central banks have just learned from the Russian situation that foreign holdings which they thought were "money" really aren't. They're likely to start stockpiling gold.
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:20 pm
$2000. Wow.
Where is Bud these days? :-)
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14226
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:30 am

Xan wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:40 pm
Saw an article on WSJ that central banks have just learned from the Russian situation that foreign holdings which they thought were "money" really aren't. They're likely to start stockpiling gold.
I liked Matt Levine’s essay, “Russia’s Money is Gone” — link posted in the Ukraine Invasion thread — which made me think really hard about physical gold.
The 2nd paragraph:
But the response to the 2008 global financial crisis, and to its later European aftershocks, made it clear that something else was going on. Who has money and what they can do with it can be adjusted by the actions of central banks and national treasuries; banks can be bailed out; costs can be socialized. The fiscal response to Covid-19 reinforced this point: Money is a tool of social decision-making, not an objective thing that you get through abstract merit.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:57 am

Only the illiterate, the captured, and the Bogleheads still think fiat money is above reproach. It's one of those things that is great, beyond great, on paper. Until it isn't. And I sense that a lot of younger people are seeing it. What Canada did to the donors to the truckers, and now what is being done to Russia, if anyone is paying attention they have to see that their money is nothing more than a government granted privilege that can be restricted in an instant. I think this should be a turning point for gold. It probably won't be as big as it should be, though. Let's see.
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 7:20 pm
$2000. Wow.
My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:30 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am
My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.
I'm in the same boat/been wondering the same thing. I wish I had rebalanced out of bonds right after the COVID market shift as some here did, so hoping to take advantage the volatility here if possible. Then again, I'm happy to have *something* preserving my purchasing power!
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:35 am

Hmm. This is now a good problem to have! Most of my gold is physical. How do I actually take advantage of this? Am I buying puts on GLD as a method of rebalancing?
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:37 am

drumminj wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:30 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:09 am
My 4x25 HBPP gold is about 28%.
Should I rebalance at 30% or wait for possible 35%, as 15/35% my rebalance bands.
I'm in the same boat/been wondering the same thing. I wish I had rebalanced out of bonds right after the COVID market shift as some here did, so hoping to take advantage the volatility here if possible. Then again, I'm happy to have *something* preserving my purchasing power!
I guess that not following the bands is market timing and we do not do that. Right? :-)
User avatar
Ugly_Bird
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 230
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2015 8:06 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:39 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:35 am
Hmm. This is now a good problem to have! Most of my gold is physical. How do I actually take advantage of this? Am I buying puts on GLD as a method of rebalancing?
Mine is all IAU... Good, bad or ugly. But a bit easier to move around than physical. Well, while ETFs are still an option, till SHTF and it is no longer :-/
User avatar
I Shrugged
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2062
Joined: Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:35 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:47 am

I like wide rebalance bands.
Post Reply