The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:17 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:12 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:03 pm
Eh same as ever..PP gave up all the gains in Gld and LTT’s as soon as stocks caught a bid. At the end of trading, Gld was up .60 and LTT’s up .32 while S&P ended down -.54
Yeah, but forgetting the day-to-day stuff, do you believe gold and long bonds will take care of you when there's a sustained downward trend in stocks. That is the important question.
I don’t know...we are in correction territory already and both gold and LTT’s are down YTD. So to answer your question, I don’t think they will protect in a downturn unless stocks are pummeled. At that point one should be a stock buyer anyway.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:24 pm

Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:34 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:24 pm
Sounds good to me. I mean, if we're able to buy stocks with sales of those other assets.
I admit, that probably won't happen for me anytime soon as my gold has not been above water since 2011, I think.
But, it might.
Yeah that is the dream...good to see gold somewhat steady but the pessimist in me sees a 2-3% decline before end of month.
Did want to highlight that 70/30 AA is now losing more than the PP so I am losing less in taxable but not gaining.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 6:05 pm

Hmm, look at nisiprius’ post in this BH thread on bonds.
4th post from top.
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 1&t=262116
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:22 pm

Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:42 pm

boglerdude wrote:
Tue Oct 23, 2018 9:22 pm
Direct links to posts are near the posters name =)

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 9#p4180094
Good point, thank you.
Nisi’s was the final post at the time, so I’d lazily used the address bar.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am

Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:26 am

a line from the Bogleheads post:

---------

Fair call out that it would be better to say independent vs negatively correlated. I definitely wouldn't seek an asset class that was anywhere near 100% inversely correlated given that would cancel out any gains in an evenly mixed portfolio.

--------

That's probably the best way to look at bonds and gold. Diversification. Sometimes tracks with, sometimes against, hopefully over the years the rebalancing helps capture gains and put money into the current losers.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:41 pm

sophie wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 7:55 am
Budd, gold and bonds will rescue the portfolio from a stock market decline, but only over time scales of months at least - not days. This could simply be a "ohmigodwhat'sgoingtohappenwithchinatariffs" bleep in the market, rather than a true correction. No one knows yet.
Eh, same shit different day.
Everyone keeps waiting for the magical moment one of the other assets takes over.
Here’s how it plays out...
Stocks decline, Gold and LTT’s decline, stocks recover and Gold and LTT’s self off.
Rinse and repeat.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:47 pm

That's why I like dividends & interest.
Everything else, you just have to tear yourself away from. That's why it is so highly recommended, albeit difficult, to check the portfolio once a year.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:49 pm

I don't watch prices like you people do. I can go months without looking. Might be one of the few things I do right.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:01 pm

Let me be the first to tell you it’s not good
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm

Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
Hmm. Just guessing but I would think that HB would expect that eight or so years of ZIRP would push stock prices higher... and that he'd just be recommending that people rebalance back to 4X25 whenever the portfolio gets stock heavy. Gold didn't work too well for a couple of decades but he still included it in his mix. Just my two cents.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm

I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm

Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:59 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
I just watch Gold Rush to get a sense of how the market is doing. :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:44 am

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
Maybe, but I feel like I'd be leaving a lot more money on the table by diverting significant effort from my career to managing investments. My expertise is at a much higher level in my career than in investing, so the returns on effort should be correspondingly greater.

If your investing expertise is beyond the amateur level, e.g. you know as much as the professionals on Wall Street, then I guess the above makes sense.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:10 am

FWIW- A gloomy prediction on precious metals. The author believes they could be heading much lower.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018 ... lapse.html

FTR- I do not subscribe, but who knows. The future is not predictable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:51 am

Radomski is the most negative "bull" out there that I occasionally read. The bullish gold stars never perfectly align for him, but are always just around the corner.

Of course, he's been right for a while though!

And as he points out, many sources remain consistently bullish on gold because they have something to sell you, just like stock analysts.

I'm fine with yet another washout. The final washout, yes, before the multi-decade bull run. Hah. How many times have we heard that.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:32 am

Sold more IAU...
Just not worth the agony and the hopium.
Now, 30/15/15/40 working towards 35/15/15/35
Should have done this a decade ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:34 pm

If that's what makes you comfortable then go for it. Just stick with whatever asset allocation you decide on. Switching portfolios because you are unhappy with how one asset is performing also means locking in losses.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:47 pm

Budd,

Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.

http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/

Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004

Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
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