The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 05, 2017 2:25 pm

ochotona wrote:Limit order bought me another ounce at $1264
What flavor?
Krunchy Krugerrand?
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:13 pm

dualstow wrote:
ochotona wrote:Limit order bought me another ounce at $1264
What flavor?
Krunchy Krugerrand?
Canadian Maple?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 05, 2017 4:19 pm

barrett wrote:Canadian Maple?
Sweeeet
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:37 pm

Kangaroo meat
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:38 pm

Are we going to $1200?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:43 pm

ochotona wrote:Are we going to $1200?
Here's my technical analysis impression:

"Before we get to $1200 we will have to go through $1234.56. On the other hand, if we get up to $1299.90, we may break $1300!"
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:21 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
ochotona wrote:Are we going to $1200?
Here's my technical analysis impression:

"Before we get to $1200 we will have to go through $1234.56. On the other hand, if we get up to $1299.90, we may break $1300!"
Funny. Boy will there be gnashing of teeth when the same sort of price action comes to the stock market. What, have we been in the 1100-1300 range for 6 freaking years now? Feels like a lifetime.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:27 pm

You guys should prepare yourselves for gold at $750. Why not? It could happen.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:43 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
ochotona wrote:Are we going to $1200?
Here's my technical analysis impression:

"Before we get to $1200 we will have to go through $1234.56. On the other hand, if we get up to $1299.90, we may break $1300!"
Funny. Boy will there be gnashing of teeth when the same sort of price action comes to the stock market. What, have we been in the 1100-1300 range for 6 freaking years now? Feels like a lifetime.
I'm sure once the stock market stops going straight up and gold starts outperforming, we'll have a lot of new members who will pile in, then pile out again once that reverts.

Just like every other time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:45 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Here's my technical analysis impression:

"Before we get to $1200 we will have to go through $1234.56. On the other hand, if we get up to $1299.90, we may break $1300!"
Funny. Boy will there be gnashing of teeth when the same sort of price action comes to the stock market. What, have we been in the 1100-1300 range for 6 freaking years now? Feels like a lifetime.
I'm sure once the stock market stops going straight up and gold starts outperforming, we'll have a lot of new members who will pile in, then pile out again once that reverts.

Just like every other time.
I’ll believe it when I see it...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:46 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:I'm sure once the stock market stops going straight up and gold starts outperforming, we'll have a lot of new members who will pile in, then pile out again once that reverts.

Just like every other time.
That's kind of what the manager of PRPFX said. People are quick to abandon the pp when stocks are doing well.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:49 pm

dualstow wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:I'm sure once the stock market stops going straight up and gold starts outperforming, we'll have a lot of new members who will pile in, then pile out again once that reverts.

Just like every other time.
That's kind of what the manager of PRPFX said. People are quick to abandon the pp when stocks are doing well.
Here's what Bill Bernstein said in 2010:

"Since the 2008 crisis, investors have piled back into PRPFX with a vengeance, bloating its assets to over $6 billion. As you might expect, you can drive a small pickup truck between the fund's time-weighted returns (10.10% annualized for the 10-year period ending 7/31/10) and dollar-weighted returns (6.41%). Investment discussion boards now fairly bulge with TPP threads. For example, the typical topic runs a few dozen messages on the respected Vanguard Diehards board; one Harry Browne sequence weighed in at nearly 3,500 posts.

"And therein lies the real problem with the TPP: because of its huge tracking error relative to more conventional portfolios, it attracts assets and adherents during crises, then sheds them in better times. There’s nothing wrong with Harry’s portfolio—nothing at all—but there’s everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars.

"Investment success accrues not so much to the brilliant as to the disciplined, and the nature of the chosen strategy contributes mightily to this calculus. The very worst place an investor can find herself is, in the words of Mark Kritzman, "wrong and alone"; this is a near certainty at some point given the TPP’s huge tracking error relative to that of the overall market portfolio, approximated by a 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds. Thus, it will be nigh-impossible for even the most disciplined investors to adhere to the TPP in the long run. (And lord knows, most investors are unable to stick to even a 60/40 portfolio.)

"Diversifying asset classes, as Harry Browne knew well, can benefit a portfolio. The secret is deploying them before those diversifying assets shoot the lights out. Harry certainly did so by moving away from gold and into poorly performing stocks and bonds in the late 1970s. Sadly, this is the opposite of what the legions of new TPP adherents and PRPFX owners have been doing recently—effectively increasing their allocations to red-hot long Treasuries and gold. Consider: over the long sweep of financial history, the annual real return of long bonds and gold have been 2% and 0%, respectively; over the decade ending 2009, they were 5% and 11%.

"Many investors currently have the Harry Browne portfolio. The 1990s stampede of assets out of PRPFX and the more recent stampede back in suggest that few will turn out to have the Harry Browne right stuff."

(from http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 07, 2017 5:13 pm

What can I say after a day like today? Ugh.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:00 pm

eufo wrote:What can I say after a day like today? Ugh.
I look at the long term chart, and I see a shallow bowl forming, the edges are mid-2013 to mid-2018, the middle (bottom) was late 2015. A five year wide bottoming process, in other words. With no guarantees.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:23 pm

ochotona wrote:
eufo wrote:What can I say after a day like today? Ugh.
I look at the long term chart, and I see a shallow bowl forming, the edges are mid-2013 to mid-2018, the middle (bottom) was late 2015. A five year wide bottoming process, in other words. With no guarantees.
I've learned not to trust charts, but I hope you're right. I think we have some more pain in the near future.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Thu Dec 07, 2017 6:47 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
dualstow wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:I'm sure once the stock market stops going straight up and gold starts outperforming, we'll have a lot of new members who will pile in, then pile out again once that reverts.

Just like every other time.
That's kind of what the manager of PRPFX said. People are quick to abandon the pp when stocks are doing well.
Here's what Bill Bernstein said in 2010:


"There’s nothing wrong with Harry’s portfolio—nothing at all—but there’s everything wrong with his followers, who seem, on average, to chase performance the way dogs chase cars.

"Investment success accrues not so much to the brilliant as to the disciplined...

(from http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/0adhoc/harry.htm)
This is very true. Trouble is, you could say this about almost any portfolio. Jumping in and out of different types of stock index funds (small cap value, emerging markets, etc) to chase returns is basically the same thing, just a bit less dramatic because of the lower tracking error compared to the total stock market. You read about it everywhere including on the Bogleheads "we love passive investing" board. I guess most people don't, in fact, love passive investing, and they don't care what the statistics say about performance of active vs. passive strategies over time.

Which is all the better for me, frankly. Too many people getting into passive investing might change the game significantly. The reason stocks go up and down is that people buy and sell them in their endless attempts to beat the market.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:25 am

As much as I complain at times, the PP is still up 10.5% YTD for me, only 1.3% below the highest point about 2 weeks ago.

I did rebalance on Oct 3 after cash hit my upper limit, but with the drubbing in gold and esp. silver, I may do an annual rebalance on Jan 1 to increase those back to the right level, and it will allow me to pull some profit out of the stock side.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:07 am

Cortopassi wrote:As much as I complain at times, the PP is still up 10.5% YTD for me, only 1.3% below the highest point about 2 weeks ago.

I did rebalance on Oct 3 after cash hit my upper limit, but with the drubbing in gold and esp. silver, I may do an annual rebalance on Jan 1 to increase those back to the right level, and it will allow me to pull some profit out of the stock side.
You have silver? I thought I was the only lunatic who still has any of that! :P

(< 2% of my portfolio)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:11 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:As much as I complain at times, the PP is still up 10.5% YTD for me, only 1.3% below the highest point about 2 weeks ago.

I did rebalance on Oct 3 after cash hit my upper limit, but with the drubbing in gold and esp. silver, I may do an annual rebalance on Jan 1 to increase those back to the right level, and it will allow me to pull some profit out of the stock side.
You have silver? I thought I was the only lunatic who still has any of that! :P

(< 2% of my portfolio)
5% level. I don't know why I started buying it in addition to gold many years ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:15 am

Hal posted a good silver history link in this thread.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:23 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:As much as I complain at times, the PP is still up 10.5% YTD for me, only 1.3% below the highest point about 2 weeks ago.

I did rebalance on Oct 3 after cash hit my upper limit, but with the drubbing in gold and esp. silver, I may do an annual rebalance on Jan 1 to increase those back to the right level, and it will allow me to pull some profit out of the stock side.
You have silver? I thought I was the only lunatic who still has any of that! :P

(< 2% of my portfolio)
5% level. I don't know why I started buying it in addition to gold many years ago.
I had about 5% until earlier this year. That's when I dumped CEF after another Sprott takeover attempt (which I guess is going to go through this time).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:09 am

I have to laugh at these PP timing threads...so anti PP. Annual or band rebalancing do what needs to be done just let them do their thing.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Dec 10, 2017 7:26 pm

ochotona wrote:Kangaroo meat
I don’t own any kangaroos, but I have ‘93 nuggets.
I guess those count.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 11, 2017 8:47 am

Gold < 1250

The Salvation Army lady dumped my krugerrand right out of her bucket.
j/k O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:46 pm

dualstow wrote:Gold < 1250

The Salvation Army lady dumped my krugerrand right out of her bucket.
j/k O0
Gold is Poor Man's Bitcoin
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