The GOLD scream room
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- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
The PP has been sucking bigly for a couple months here. No end in sight. That 14.3% up for the year seems like a very distant memory.
Sorry, I am starting to sound like the old Budd...
TLT now negative for the year, and stocks set to soon pass GLD. I bet mathjak is feeling vindicated about now.
Sorry, I am starting to sound like the old Budd...
TLT now negative for the year, and stocks set to soon pass GLD. I bet mathjak is feeling vindicated about now.
Last edited by Cortopassi on Wed Nov 23, 2016 9:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
To be serious for a moment, fortunately I decided some time ago to liquefy a couple of years' expenses so I don't have to sell anything at present.Cortopassi wrote:The PP has been sucking bigly for a couple months here. No end in sight. That 14.3% up for the year seems like a very distant memory.
Sorry, I am starting to sound like the old Budd...
I expect this correction to end sometime in the next few months and the next leg of the gold bull market to start.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I should have not tinkered and waited for the annual or band rebalance. I fully knew this was going to happen, that when I buy, things drop further. Oh well.Libertarian666 wrote:I expect this correction to end sometime in the next few months and the next leg of the gold bull market to start.
Re: The GOLD scream room
I don't have much extra cash sitting around but when the tone takes a turn for the worse on here, I figure it's time to buy. Just picked up a little IAU and five long bonds. Now I'll try not to check balances for a while. I won't have any money to invest for a few months anyway.Cortopassi wrote:I should have not tinkered and waited for the annual or band rebalance. I fully knew this was going to happen, that when I buy, things drop further. Oh well.Libertarian666 wrote:I expect this correction to end sometime in the next few months and the next leg of the gold bull market to start.
On the other forums (Bogleheads & MMM) people would be all excited about the "buying opportunity". Don't know if this is a good time to buy or not but it's better than a couple of months ago.
Seriously, Cortopassi, buying into corrections actually can be good for long-term returns. I'm like you. I regret when my timing isn't great but I do believe in this whole PP thing works if given enough time. If not, I'll be there to commiserate with you. FWIW.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Corrections are great if you are in accumulation mode.barrett wrote:I don't have much extra cash sitting around but when the tone takes a turn for the worse on here, I figure it's time to buy. Just picked up a little IAU and five long bonds. Now I'll try not to check balances for a while. I won't have any money to invest for a few months anyway.Cortopassi wrote:I should have not tinkered and waited for the annual or band rebalance. I fully knew this was going to happen, that when I buy, things drop further. Oh well.Libertarian666 wrote:I expect this correction to end sometime in the next few months and the next leg of the gold bull market to start.
On the other forums (Bogleheads & MMM) people would be all excited about the "buying opportunity". Don't know if this is a good time to buy or not but it's better than a couple of months ago.
Seriously, Cortopassi, buying into corrections actually can be good for long-term returns. I'm like you. I regret when my timing isn't great but I do believe in this whole PP thing works if given enough time. If not, I'll be there to commiserate with you. FWIW.
I'm not.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Per ETFreplay, the PP is up 7% YTD and is beating a global 60-40 portfolio with no gold by more than 3%. That's a correction I can get on board with.Libertarian666 wrote:
Corrections are great if you are in accumulation mode.
I'm not.
This just another example of why 1) you shouldn't watch the markets, and 2) you need to look at the portfolio as a whole and not the individual components.
Last edited by Tyler on Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Sure, and day by day I improve. But it had been so long since I've had any reasonably good yearlong gain that watching this melt from >14% up has been difficult.Tyler wrote:This just another example of why 1) you shouldn't watch the markets, and 2) you need to look at the portfolio as a whole and not the individual components.
Not that I would have done anything about it. In the past I might have sold, and for sure it would have felt good for a while until I would be forced to mentally make a decision about how/when to get back in. Not worth it.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yeah, I'm not really in accumulation mode either. Just kinda winding down my working years and had a bit of cash in my Roth that could be invested.Libertarian666 wrote:
Corrections are great if you are in accumulation mode.
I'm not.
I believe the best solution is for Cortopassi to pass along his income to me so that I can calmly run his PP for him while he pursues total world domination unhindered by daily price fluctuations.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Barrett, I am way past world domination stage. I just want to calmly finish my career and get my girls through college...
Barrett, I am way past world domination stage. I just want to calmly finish my career and get my girls through college...
Re: The GOLD scream room
Or you can go one step further like my wife and have very little idea how much money you even have. She just focusses on working and putting something aside, and lets me do all the gnashing of teeth. "It's a bad day for long-duration bonds" is an utterance that means nothing to her (probably as it should be!).Tyler wrote: This just another example of why 1) you shouldn't watch the markets, and 2) you need to look at the portfolio as a whole and not the individual components.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Do you have a different allocation in mind for these times? Just curious. I haven't found anything else. Not that I've been looking, but when I did, definitely worse for me.CullyB wrote:Is it possible that this is just a bad portfolio for the times we live in?
Re: The GOLD scream room
Yeah, me too (just one girl for us though). That 14% bump was the PP outperforming for a bit in my view. The thing is that if you try to time markets, you're likely to be on the sidelines when everything is hot, as happened back in June. Not saying anything new here but people who run a PP can benefit from getting a bit of support on here from time to time. When stocks get clobbered there's a whole world of investors ready to commiserate. We are just trying not to get clobbered. Would love to blather further but I have to go check the gold spot price!Cortopassi wrote:Happy Thanksgiving to all!
Barrett, I am way past world domination stage. I just want to calmly finish my career and get my girls through college...
Yes, Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Re: The GOLD scream room
The returns this year are above average historically, so I see no indication that it's a bad time for the PP.CullyB wrote:Is it possible that this is just a bad portfolio for the times we live in?
Natural market timers will never be happy with ANY portfolio that doesn't perpetually change with the times in an attempt to maximize returns. But for people who appreciate doing pretty well in all economic conditions with no effort required, there's a lot to like about the PP.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
If you hadn't looked at the PP all year and you logged on to check balances, how would you feel? Don't fall into the trap of feeling you have lost money when you are actually UP YTD.
I personally sold SC and SCV to Bond index today, purchased more International and Gold.
Small caps have dominated after the election while international, fixed income and gold have declined.
It feels like shit to go counter-trend but it seems like the right thing to do.
I personally sold SC and SCV to Bond index today, purchased more International and Gold.
Small caps have dominated after the election while international, fixed income and gold have declined.
It feels like shit to go counter-trend but it seems like the right thing to do.
- Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room
True enough Budd, and good way to view things.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
The further out your perspective the less the daily swings matter.
You have to mentally retrain yourself to accept declines.
Also, and this is a big one, my mind is preoccupied with work after my boss left a couple of months ago.
His departure brought me more job security (perceived or otherwise) and the ability to lead a team again.
I've swapped one dependency for another and hope that this time I don't switch back to perseverating about the PP.
You have to mentally retrain yourself to accept declines.
Also, and this is a big one, my mind is preoccupied with work after my boss left a couple of months ago.
His departure brought me more job security (perceived or otherwise) and the ability to lead a team again.
I've swapped one dependency for another and hope that this time I don't switch back to perseverating about the PP.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I'm still up about 7% YTD as of this moment.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Yeah, but your portfolio is weirdLibertarian666 wrote:I'm still up about 7% YTD as of this moment.
- Pointedstick
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I haven't looked all year and up 6.3% is still fine by me. My Golden Butterfly portfolio is up almost 10% and I'm downright thrilled with that.
And all of this with zero intervention except for buying some gold every few months. Pretty great if you ask me.
And all of this with zero intervention except for buying some gold every few months. Pretty great if you ask me.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Well, if you were a 100% stock investor you'd be up about the same amount and also with minimal intervention. But yes, the PP needs amazingly little attention for a portfolio that can be so complicated to dissect.Pointedstick wrote:I haven't looked all year and up 6.3% is still fine by me. My Golden Butterfly portfolio is up almost 10% and I'm downright thrilled with that.
And all of this with zero intervention except for buying some gold every few months. Pretty great if you ask me.
I got some gold Eagles (from Colorado Gold) just recently, so I'm back to wondering about storage. Right now the plan is to stick with the safe deposit box method, and add a personal articles policy to my homeowner's insurance. What are you doing about this, if I may ask?
- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
with such a strong dollar i see little need for investing in international funds . the american company's already have enough exposure in my opinion .Tyler wrote:Per ETFreplay, the PP is up 7% YTD and is beating a global 60-40 portfolio with no gold by more than 3%. That's a correction I can get on board with.Libertarian666 wrote:
Corrections are great if you are in accumulation mode.
I'm not.
This just another example of why 1) you shouldn't watch the markets, and 2) you need to look at the portfolio as a whole and not the individual components.
so just to bring you up to date on what a domestic portfolio would be doing now . the fidelity insight growth and income model i follow is up 7.14% that is a 65/35 model
the conservative income model 30/70 is up 5.50%
i use a mix of the two .
but remember how many prior years was the pp down recently ? so even if the 6.32% holds it is still pretty poor over the last few years and not comparable . .
so far my gold- long treasury bond predictions have not been wrong . things seem to be playing out just the way i thought they would , with gold and long term treasury bonds holding back whatever gains equity's can muster once the corner turned on bond rates which they did 3 months ago .
these increases in bond rates are only the beginning of the rise back towards more normal rates . for a low volatility portfolio the pp certainly has been seeing it's share of swings . half the double digit rise it had evaporated in a few months .
just my 2 cents for what it's worth here which is nothing . now back to my non posting status .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Nov 24, 2016 5:54 am, edited 3 times in total.
- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
sophie wrote:Well, if you were a 100% stock investor you'd be up about the same amount and also with minimal intervention. But yes, the PP needs amazingly little attention for a portfolio that can be so complicated to dissect.Pointedstick wrote:I haven't looked all year and up 6.3% is still fine by me. My Golden Butterfly portfolio is up almost 10% and I'm downright thrilled with that.
And all of this with zero intervention except for buying some gold every few months. Pretty great if you ask me.
I got some gold Eagles (from Colorado Gold) just recently, so I'm back to wondering about storage. Right now the plan is to stick with the safe deposit box method, and add a personal articles policy to my homeowner's insurance. What are you doing about this, if I may ask?
up about the same ?
the s&p 500 is up almost 10% , the midcap index up 13% and the small cap index up 19%. that isn't close to being the same as the 6.32% of the pp especially when considering the pp losses the last few years .
if anything the gb has a far better balance than the pp in my opinion . while i am not thrilled with the long term bonds and gold at this point the small cap tilt and increased allocations to equity's is far more to my liking . i could see harry revising the pp today if he was alive to something along those lines .
if we sell off enough i can see the gb performing fine for new comers until the next round of rate increases next year . personally i feel it is a portfolio that i would use dynamically and be ready to make changes if rates were continuing upward .
as far as the gb design , it is easy to back in to data and construct the ideal solution to situations in the past so that they fair better then everything else .
it is a whole lot harder when the course going forward is pretty different from the road it was designed for if the path changes . 35 years of falling rates except for some speed bumps alters that road just enough to possibly make the design going forward not the best choice if rates continue up .
but with a lot of the froth out now the gb may be starting to look attractive as a dynamic portfolio where adjustments to allocations are made based on the big picture .
i don't intend to be a regular poster here again but i did want to throw out some comments .
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
What you fail to take into consideration is that many of us rebalanced following the ~13% increase.
I took the gain as an opportunity to rebuild cash position and am now reinvesting at lower gold and LTT prices.
I took the gain as an opportunity to rebuild cash position and am now reinvesting at lower gold and LTT prices.
- mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room
that just makes your returns worse . lol . if folks rebalanced they took what continued to go up and bought what fell further right up until yesterday .
you had to sell some stocks then and missed some of the equity run up if you converted to cash , yes ?
i doubt that made much of a difference either way . until bonds and gold rebound , if they do , it is basically a non event . .
. .
you had to sell some stocks then and missed some of the equity run up if you converted to cash , yes ?
i doubt that made much of a difference either way . until bonds and gold rebound , if they do , it is basically a non event . .
. .
Last edited by mathjak107 on Thu Nov 24, 2016 9:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
No. Stocks were left untouched.mathjak107 wrote:that just makes your returns worse . lol . if folks rebalanced they took what continued to go up and bought what fell further right up until yesterday .
you had to sell some stocks then and missed some of the equity run up if you converted to cash , yes ?
. .
Sorry, try again.
Actually, I thought you were done posting.
Bye.