The GOLD scream room
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- Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room
You know, I've been seeing a belt whisker contraindicator for gold the past few weeks, but it hasn't triple nippled yet, I'm hoping the dandruff shakes off the head and shoulders for all us gold investors soon, know what I'm saying?
Re: The GOLD scream room
"A break above the neckline" sounds like a hanging of gold investors... not to be confused with the usual guillotine approach...
- dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Gold's teasing us again today.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Don't worry, it'll lose all those gains at the open tomorrow and then chill all day to hold the loss.dualstow wrote:Gold's teasing us again today.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I certainly hope so. I'm waiting for a sizable cashout to buy more!eufo wrote:Don't worry, it'll lose all those gains at the open tomorrow and then chill all day to hold the loss.dualstow wrote:Gold's teasing us again today.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
First hint of inflation and gold runs like a coward.
I’m even eating on a yellow plate at my favorite buffet.
Gold is leading stocks and bonds YTD, but International investments are the winner with the USD falling.
Gold is up 3+% but that’s not very much.
I’m even eating on a yellow plate at my favorite buffet.
Gold is leading stocks and bonds YTD, but International investments are the winner with the USD falling.
Gold is up 3+% but that’s not very much.
Re: The GOLD scream room
YTD isn't relevant... it's only been a few days. Look at 12 month performance. It's done better than bonds over the last year.buddtholomew wrote:First hint of inflation and gold runs like a coward.
I’m even eating on a yellow plate at my favorite buffet.
Gold is leading stocks and bonds YTD, but International investments are the winner with the USD falling.
Gold is up 3+% but that’s not very much.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so...
First hint of inflation and gold disappears.
Wonderful day for the PP.
Look at her go, thank god I only have 25% in each asset class since they are all going down together...hmm
70/30 down 0.40%
PP down 0.90%
MAGICAL
First hint of inflation and gold disappears.
Wonderful day for the PP.
Look at her go, thank god I only have 25% in each asset class since they are all going down together...hmm
70/30 down 0.40%
PP down 0.90%
MAGICAL
Re: The GOLD scream room
Told who what now? Last I recall you were voicing unrealistic expectations for gold in light of its actual, well understood relationship to stocks and bonds and a few people were gently reminding you of various facts, such as that zero correlation is not the same thing as the negative correlation you seem to expect, that no one ever promised the assets cancel each other out on a daily basis, that gold is up YTD and for the past year, and that gold was the top asset in two out of the past five decades, one as recently as one decade ago.buddtholomew wrote:Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so...
First hint of inflation and gold disappears.
Wonderful day for the PP.
Look at her go, thank god I only have 25% in each asset class since they are all going down together...hmm
By the way, what ever happened to your strategy to buy and sell gold regularly based on its awfulness being so predictable?
Re: The GOLD scream room
That's the idea, right? :-)buddtholomew wrote:Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so...
thank god I only have 25% in each asset class
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
If Gold's relationship to stocks and bonds is so well understood, then that is news to me.Mr Vacuum wrote:Told who what now? Last I recall you were voicing unrealistic expectations for gold in light of its actual, well understood relationship to stocks and bonds and a few people were gently reminding you of various facts, such as that zero correlation is not the same thing as the negative correlation you seem to expect, that no one ever promised the assets cancel each other out on a daily basis, that gold is up YTD and for the past year, and that gold was the top asset in two out of the past five decades, one as recently as one decade ago.buddtholomew wrote:Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so...
First hint of inflation and gold disappears.
Wonderful day for the PP.
Look at her go, thank god I only have 25% in each asset class since they are all going down together...hmm
By the way, what ever happened to your strategy to buy and sell gold regularly based on its awfulness being so predictable?
Being invested in the portfolio since 2011, I can tell you Gold and LTT's are nothing but a drag on performance.
Even on the occasion that Stocks decline >10%, one should expect Gold and LTT's to go lower as well.
I have had blinders on myself hoping that the PP was the answer, but from experience I can tell you it is not.
You may get lucky and the portfolio saves you during the next crisis but I doubt it.
Chances are you would have already lost a significant amount in the assets you hold for that very scenario.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
UB, you cut-off the most relevant point...25% in each asset class doesn't save you if they are all falling together.Ugly_Bird wrote:That's the idea, right? :-)buddtholomew wrote:Well can’t say I didn’t tell you so...
thank god I only have 25% in each asset class
Case in point, my 70/30 BH allocation only fell .40% today whereas my version of the PP fell .90%
Re: The GOLD scream room
Today? Why did you even looked at that today?buddtholomew wrote: my 70/30 BH allocation only fell .40% today whereas my version of the PP fell .90%
If it is not close to any rebalance limits, there is no need to look neither today nor tomorrow. The longer - the better.
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
You might as well hold 100% stocks if you never look, it has the highest expected return.Ugly_Bird wrote:Today? Why did you even looked at that today?buddtholomew wrote: my 70/30 BH allocation only fell .40% today whereas my version of the PP fell .90%
If it is not close to any rebalance limits, there is no need to look neither today nor tomorrow. The longer - the better.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Put everything in AAPL. It's the largest market cap stock out there but has crushed the overall market for years.buddtholomew wrote:You might as well hold 100% stocks if you never look, it has the highest expected return.
Seriously, though, the PP is about as stable an allocation as one could ever hope for. Day to day moves mean zilch. If you look at the 4 prongs from Jan 24th through today, Cash is the leader, with Gold in second. Sorry it fell today, but it's still beating both stocks and bonds during this correction.
You need to chill, dude.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, you frequently tout with confidence statistics and historical perspectives showing the superior long run performance of stocks as justification for their proper use in a portfolio. Have you asked yourself why you have such trouble accepting statistics on gold that form the long term basis for its inclusion in the PP?
It's one thing to come in here and complain about gold: this is the scream room for that. But it's another thing to insist that the portfolio is broken because it goes down some days. Gold is the most volatile asset in the portfolio. It is not correlated with the other assets. It is going to go down at times that are inconvenient.
Perhaps we have no recourse but to convince Fidelity to release a newsletter stating the probability of different assets going down in the same day, month, and year to prove that it’s possible and expected.
It's one thing to come in here and complain about gold: this is the scream room for that. But it's another thing to insist that the portfolio is broken because it goes down some days. Gold is the most volatile asset in the portfolio. It is not correlated with the other assets. It is going to go down at times that are inconvenient.
Perhaps we have no recourse but to convince Fidelity to release a newsletter stating the probability of different assets going down in the same day, month, and year to prove that it’s possible and expected.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, I think you are confusing day to day fluctuations with meaningful trends. There is a reason why momentum investors use histories of 3 or 6 months to determine trend lines. That's the length of time needed to obtain a stable curve.
Please please please, for your sanity (and ours), stop checking prices every day. Check your portfolio every 3 months, and enjoy the rest of your life in the meantime!
Please please please, for your sanity (and ours), stop checking prices every day. Check your portfolio every 3 months, and enjoy the rest of your life in the meantime!
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
I have 200K to add to the portfolio.
I’m having a difficult time deciding between 70/30 and the PP.
All I have witnessed in my investing life which started in 2008 is stocks out-performing all other assets with minimal/short-lived declines.
While psychologically I like the PP, I have yet to witness the portfolio zigging when stocks zag.
It’s stocks up, PP up; stocks down, PP down.
I’m having a difficult time deciding between 70/30 and the PP.
All I have witnessed in my investing life which started in 2008 is stocks out-performing all other assets with minimal/short-lived declines.
While psychologically I like the PP, I have yet to witness the portfolio zigging when stocks zag.
It’s stocks up, PP up; stocks down, PP down.
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Re: The GOLD scream room
Well that explains a lot.buddtholomew wrote:All I have witnessed in my investing life which started in 2008...
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, what is your time horizon for possibly needing to withdraw money from your portfolio?
- buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room
PP in taxable serves primarily as an emergency fund with a short timeframe and if not used is part of my overall retirement portfolio (70/30, tax deferred). Don’t expect to touch those assets for 20 years.stuper1 wrote:Budd, what is your time horizon for possibly needing to withdraw money from your portfolio?
Re: The GOLD scream room
If your PP is your emergency fund, then maybe that is why you are so worried about short-term dips. Historically, the PP as an overall portfolio has had drawdowns as much as 20% or more, so I'm not sure that a PP is meant to be an emergency fund. On the other hand, it should be okay to view the cash in your PP as your emergency fund.
For example, if your monthly expenses are $5k, and you want a 6-month emergency fund of $30k, then you need a PP of at least $120k, so that the cash in your PP can be your $30k emergency fund. As long as you have enough cash in your PP to serve as your emergency fund, don't worry about short-term PP dips. They will come back a lot faster than they would with most other portfolios (if backtesting is to be believed).
And if you don't expect to touch those assets for 20 years, then sure, it makes sense to over-weight stocks a bit, as long as your employment prospects are good (although some of us may tend to be overly optimistic about such things). But make sure you know your risk tolerance, so that you won't panic and sell when stocks go into a downturn. And make sure you have a re-balancing plan in place ahead of time, along with a plan to taper the stocks down as you get closer to retirement. Use robust backtesting to test your plan. Follow the plan. If you try to follow your gut, you will likely end up buying and selling at the wrong times and losing money.
For example, if your monthly expenses are $5k, and you want a 6-month emergency fund of $30k, then you need a PP of at least $120k, so that the cash in your PP can be your $30k emergency fund. As long as you have enough cash in your PP to serve as your emergency fund, don't worry about short-term PP dips. They will come back a lot faster than they would with most other portfolios (if backtesting is to be believed).
And if you don't expect to touch those assets for 20 years, then sure, it makes sense to over-weight stocks a bit, as long as your employment prospects are good (although some of us may tend to be overly optimistic about such things). But make sure you know your risk tolerance, so that you won't panic and sell when stocks go into a downturn. And make sure you have a re-balancing plan in place ahead of time, along with a plan to taper the stocks down as you get closer to retirement. Use robust backtesting to test your plan. Follow the plan. If you try to follow your gut, you will likely end up buying and selling at the wrong times and losing money.
Re: The GOLD scream room
Budd, you've known for years that the PP does not do what you want it to do. You want it to zig while stocks zag on an intraday basis. It does not do that. And it's creating a massive drag on your returns during one of the greatest and longest bull markets in history.
Why would you allocate any of that 200k to gold or long bonds?
Why would you allocate any of that 200k to gold or long bonds?