The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
Mark Leavy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1950
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm
Location: US Citizen, Permanent Traveler

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:13 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:10 pm

What about gold-plated tungsten? I'm pretty sure most of the tungsten fakes are coated with real gold.
Good point. You could but a diffraction grating on the thinnest of plating.
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:29 am

That 'DNA' is a great idea. If I understand correctly each coin in effect having the equivalent of a serial number that can identify it, but in a manner where its nigh on impossible to replicate (at least cost efficiently). No two coins perfectly the same, no matter how hard you might try, where the micro differences are recorded as a 'code' (serial number) that dealers can use to validate the coin.

The British Britannia had the prior edge and claim of the 'most secure'

https://www.gold.co.uk/gold-news/2020/o ... oins-2021/

but their ante has now been upped :) I'm hoping that if/when the Royal Mint do similar dna profiling that it may be a more general option, a phone app to zoom picture and a open reference database to consult/flag whether that Britannia coin was indeed produced by the Royal Mint ... or not (fake). At least on the newer coins for which each coins dna is recorded.

Potential comfort of assurances from size, weight, visuals (hologram type features), ring test ... and DNA app all OK for Joe Average.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Dec 21, 2022 5:49 am

seajay wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 12:29 am
The British Britannia had the prior edge and claim of the 'most secure'
The Britannia is damn good-looking coin as well.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:50 am

I have one. I think it’s a 2018. Never unwrapped it.
RIP Marcello Gandini
welderwannabe
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 104
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:39 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:31 pm
That Bullion DNA looks pretty cool -- https://www.mint.ca/en/bullion/bullion-dna --
but what about all the old coins?
Fascinating, thanks for sharing. Validating my decision to go with the silver maple leafs for this order. Neat.

Well, that and the fact that Silver Eagles are around 75% over spot right now. its nuts.
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:21 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:39 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:31 pm
That Bullion DNA looks pretty cool -- https://www.mint.ca/en/bullion/bullion-dna --
but what about all the old coins?
Fascinating, thanks for sharing. Validating my decision to go with the silver maple leafs for this order. Neat.

Well, that and the fact that Silver Eagles are around 75% over spot right now. its nuts.
Perhaps just a reflection of there being 460 times more paper silver than actual silver (and 117 times more paper gold than physical gold).
https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
If a silver (and/or gold) run were to occur, like a fiat currency bank run, then the prices of paper and physical would obviously deviate massively and where the recent premium for physical over paper reflects increased fear of such a run.

Most Options on silver/gold expire without physical delivery being taken, are cash settled instead. In 1931 UK the legal convertibility of gold/money had to be ended as too many were exchanging money into gold - that was unsustainable. The US followed that lead in 1933. Nowadays the same/similar could start via Options. A surge in buy Options, hold to maturity and then demand physical delivery. As those writing the Options faltered/failed so the Options/Futures (paper based spot) prices might collapse, induce a follow-through hit into the entire financial system, and where the price of physical gold soared massively.

ETF's that suggest that they're backed by physical gold may simply fold - into a "scandal" of claims not actually having been true, and instead the audited physical gold had been lent out/swapped/whatever and 'disappeared'.
User avatar
Vil
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 423
Joined: Wed Jan 01, 2020 10:16 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:20 am

Yesterday, was contemplating a bit the Yale of Beaufort, from The Queen’s Beasts Collection. However, do not think that my diversification goes that far to get it - in other words, might be slightly hard to sell if I may need to (frankly I do not bet on such unfortunate event). At the end got some Krugs and Cangaroos.. Though, 'the beasts' look so cool, and apparently the minters have added some "chainmail surface animation background texture providing additional security"
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 22, 2022 5:51 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:21 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:39 pm

dualstow wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:31 pm

That Bullion DNA looks pretty cool -- https://www.mint.ca/en/bullion/bullion-dna --
but what about all the old coins?


Fascinating, thanks for sharing. Validating my decision to go with the silver maple leafs for this order. Neat.

Well, that and the fact that Silver Eagles are around 75% over spot right now. its nuts.

Perhaps just a reflection of there being 460 times more paper silver than actual silver (and 117 times more paper gold than physical gold).
https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
If a silver (and/or gold) run were to occur, like a fiat currency bank run, then the prices of paper and physical would obviously deviate massively and where the recent premium for physical over paper reflects increased fear of such a run.

Most Options on silver/gold expire without physical delivery being taken, are cash settled instead. In 1931 UK the legal convertibility of gold/money had to be ended as too many were exchanging money into gold - that was unsustainable. The US followed that lead in 1933. Nowadays the same/similar could start via Options. A surge in buy Options, hold to maturity and then demand physical delivery. As those writing the Options faltered/failed so the Options/Futures (paper based spot) prices might collapse, induce a follow-through hit into the entire financial system, and where the price of physical gold soared massively.

ETF's that suggest that they're backed by physical gold may simply fold - into a "scandal" of claims not actually having been true, and instead the audited physical gold had been lent out/swapped/whatever and 'disappeared'.


You seem to be today majoring in giving us frightening information!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:15 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:21 am
welderwannabe wrote:
Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:39 pm

Well, that and the fact that Silver Eagles are around 75% over spot right now. its nuts.
Perhaps just a reflection of there being 460 times more paper silver than actual silver (and 117 times more paper gold than physical gold)….
Why wouldn’t that affect Maples along with Eagles?
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:18 am

P.S. I’m feeling that terrible feeling when I want to order but I’m not going to be in town to receive :-\
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:23 am

p.p.s. Has anyone looked into the Bullion Visa at Apmex? You use it to buy groceries etc and use points toward gold and silver purchases instead of dividend miles. I don’t know if I’d want to advertise around town that I’m into bullion.
RIP Marcello Gandini
welderwannabe
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 104
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:32 am

seajay wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:21 am
Perhaps just a reflection of there being 460 times more paper silver than actual silver (and 117 times more paper gold than physical gold).
https://usdebtclock.org/gold-precious-metals.html
If a silver (and/or gold) run were to occur, like a fiat currency bank run, then the prices of paper and physical would obviously deviate massively and where the recent premium for physical over paper reflects increased fear of such a run.

Most Options on silver/gold expire without physical delivery being taken, are cash settled instead. In 1931 UK the legal convertibility of gold/money had to be ended as too many were exchanging money into gold - that was unsustainable. The US followed that lead in 1933. Nowadays the same/similar could start via Options. A surge in buy Options, hold to maturity and then demand physical delivery. As those writing the Options faltered/failed so the Options/Futures (paper based spot) prices might collapse, induce a follow-through hit into the entire financial system, and where the price of physical gold soared massively.

ETF's that suggest that they're backed by physical gold may simply fold - into a "scandal" of claims not actually having been true, and instead the audited physical gold had been lent out/swapped/whatever and 'disappeared'.
Glad to see you fighting the good fight on BH, I get exhausted arguing with NotNiceUnparticularWoman.

I think its very unlikely the physical ETFs aren't, in fact, backed by physical gold. The delta between 'paper' and physical is likely explained by call options and synthetic securities. That doesn't mean that someone who owns SGOL (in my case), doesn't actually have hard allocated gold in the vault.

Regardless thats why I hold physical as well, just in case im wrong.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:36 am

welderwannabe wrote:
Thu Dec 22, 2022 7:32 am

Glad to see you fighting the good fight on BH, I get exhausted arguing with NotNiceUnparticularWoman.

It looks like seajay and GRP finally managed to argue that guy into submission and shut him up.

If I recall correctly, he's been trolling gold threads since the original HBPP thread.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 22, 2022 11:51 am

And lmao I'm going to start calling him NotNiceParticularWoman.

If I get banned I'll just start other accounts and keep doing it. >:D
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:13 am

Found on Reddit.

This looks like something Technovelist would hold in his wallet.


1kqmr95dh28a1.jpg
1kqmr95dh28a1.jpg (707.64 KiB) Viewed 18192 times
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Mon Dec 26, 2022 5:51 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:13 am

Found on Reddit.

This looks like something Technovelist would hold in his wallet.



1kqmr95dh28a1.jpg


Maybe he also will pop up here again some day with a new name announcing himself as "the artist formerly known as 'Technovelist'" !!!!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 26, 2022 9:38 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 12:13 am
Found on Reddit.

This looks like something Technovelist would hold in his wallet.

1kqmr95dh28a1.jpg
hah!It does!
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:34 am

I guess he’s not so fond of this forum anymore, but he still posts on the bogleheads forum. At least we can see he’s still alive and well.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:53 am

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Dec 26, 2022 11:34 am

I guess he’s not so fond of this forum anymore, but he still posts on the bogleheads forum. At least we can see he’s still alive and well.


Yes, I did notice that there when you (or someone else) posted a discussion from there.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Thu Dec 29, 2022 3:23 pm

Just arrived... 1/100th ounce Scottsdale gold bar. O0

Let the spreads get even more massive. >:D

gold.png
gold.png (1.52 MiB) Viewed 17993 times
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Thu Dec 29, 2022 5:22 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 12:58 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 11:00 am
welderwannabe wrote:
Tue Dec 20, 2022 7:53 am
I see they suggest not buying 22K gold coins and sticks with 24K for the reason I mentioned above. Is your timbre check what will help me detect a fake if it passes this plastic test?
Yes, the ring test needs to be done in combination with the size and weight test. It may be possible to construct a fake coin that passes the ring test, but then it wouldn’t pass the size and weight tests. As Mark pointed out, the combination of all three is what’s basically impossible to achieve with anything other than gold.

Here’s a short video clip of a ring test comparing a real gold maple leaf to a fake (tungsten) one:

https://youtube.com/shorts/k0kxeyemJBg?feature=share
The fake maple leaf also doesn't have the benefit of the radial lines on the face of the coin ("Bullion DNA").
Take two similar one ounce gold coins, machine out one side of one, machine out the other side of the other, replace the core with tungsten and join the two separate halves ... and the resulting one ounce fake can have just half a ounce of gold, but looks right (actual obverse and reverse sides of valid coins), have the right dimensions and correct weight - but wont ring right.

Image

Testers such as Sigma Metalytics Precious Metal Verifier PMV PRO are pricey, around $2K, but for regular buyers provide a quick and easy test

Image

Less expensive ($1K) alternatives are around, but may not penetrate right through and could miss a tungsten core.

More often a local dealer will have such equipment and most will be happy to test coins for you, provided they're not otherwise too busy or you take in too many coins to be tested.

I suspect that even "dna" testing, zooming in on a specific region on the face of a coin to spot/cross reference unique differences, as with holographics ... shouldn't be trusted as being assurance of being non-fake.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:47 pm

Very interesting.
I trust the new coins I’ve bought from Apmex but I should probably have my random years and local purchases tested.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
vnatale
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 9422
Joined: Fri Apr 12, 2019 8:56 pm
Location: Massachusetts
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:06 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:47 pm

Very interesting.
I trust the new coins I’ve bought from Apmex but I should probably have my random years and local purchases tested.


What is your recourse if any tests reveal anything?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
User avatar
Mark Leavy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1950
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm
Location: US Citizen, Permanent Traveler

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:04 pm

I sold some coins a while back to AJPM (in Portland). They had a special scale that not only weighed the coin, but did an ultrasound check on it. Even though the coins were in the same sealed tubes that they were in when I bought them from AJPM years earlier, they ran each and every coin through the weight and ultrasound check.

I don't know how much that little gizmo costs, but if you were going to do any sort of volume, it seems that it would be a handy item.

For reference, they also had a machine that counted currency and checked for counterfeit. So, whenever I did a trade, fiat for gold or gold for fiat, they made sure that the counter party goods were good.

I have a lot of respect for those guys.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 30, 2022 7:07 am

vnatale wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 7:06 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Dec 29, 2022 6:47 pm
Very interesting.
I trust the new coins I’ve bought from Apmex but I should probably have my random years and local purchases tested.
What is your recourse if any tests reveal anything?
Tears
RIP Marcello Gandini
Post Reply