The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:32 am

Psychologically I prefer to see progress over regression.
That's why the steady grind higher is comforting to me.
Pullbacks introduce anxiety as progress has ceased.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote:Psychologically I prefer to see progress over regression.
That's why the steady grind higher is comforting to me.
Pullbacks introduce anxiety as progress has ceased.
The first rule of investing is that the markets don't care what you want.
The second rule of investing is that the markets will give you exactly what you don't want.
(Yes, I know those rules are logically inconsistent. :P )
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:32 pm

They also say nothing of how often you can talk about the rules.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:58 am

I don't really wring my hands, but I do look pretty much every day.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:00 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:They also say nothing of how often you can talk about the rules.
Yes, I forgot the first rule, which is that you don't talk about the rules.
Thanks for the correction!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:06 am

Since most look every day, any theoretical reason for the pop?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:05 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Since most look every day, any theoretical reason for the pop?
Maybe this?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-2 ... conference
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:23 pm

I seldom look at my PP or its components.

I guess because my buy in of gold was below 800, I see it differently. If the current prices are waffling back and forth between a paper loss and gain, I can see how that would keep you worked up. I am in gold for the long, long run.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:06 pm

I Shrugged wrote:I seldom look at my PP or its components.

I guess because my buy in of gold was below 800, I see it differently. If the current prices are waffling back and forth between a paper loss and gain, I can see how that would keep you worked up. I am in gold for the long, long run.
My average basis is about $400. Maybe that makes a difference.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:13 pm

My average basis on SPY is 92.
Of course it makes a difference.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:18 pm

Libertarian666 wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I seldom look at my PP or its components.

I guess because my buy in of gold was below 800, I see it differently. If the current prices are waffling back and forth between a paper loss and gain, I can see how that would keep you worked up. I am in gold for the long, long run.
My average basis is about $400. Maybe that makes a difference.
Aarghh... ;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:45 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
I Shrugged wrote:I seldom look at my PP or its components.

I guess because my buy in of gold was below 800, I see it differently. If the current prices are waffling back and forth between a paper loss and gain, I can see how that would keep you worked up. I am in gold for the long, long run.
My average basis is about $400. Maybe that makes a difference.
Aarghh... ;)
There were quite a few years when that didn't look so good, while the price was dropping. I.e., from the peak in 1980 to the low around 2000.

I still have some gold from the 1970's that I'm probably going to sell (and rebuy) this year because I have a lot of unused capital gains space due to having virtually no taxable income at present. Why not use the opportunity to reset my basis at $1300 instead of $200 or whatever it currently is?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 27, 2017 7:58 am

Well...that didn't last long...but I'm not looking, right?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:15 am

Same crap Corto...we have to re-balance when gold and treasuries rise in value.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:19 am

When the day/year comes that I am able to rebalance OUT of gold because it has risen to a 140% band is the day I will stop worrying about it as an asset. I don't see that coming very soon, but you never know.

That will be a good day, but also one where the worry will shift to why is the stock market continually going down. Nah, that'll never happen.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:21 am

Seriously, daily moves in gold and treasuries far exceed any volatility that I have witnessed in equities over the last 7-8 years.
I can almost guarantee that when stocks enter their decline, gold and treasuries will follow as well.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 27, 2017 8:37 am

Yeah, if the same volatility existed in the market, that would probably cause major problems.

Both down over 1% right now, the double whammy always hurts.

Today I start removing methods of me accessing quick views on my accounts. Not worth it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:13 am

buddtholomew wrote:Seriously, daily moves in gold and treasuries far exceed any volatility that I have witnessed in equities over the last 7-8 years.
I can almost guarantee that when stocks enter their decline, gold and treasuries will follow as well.
Then you shouldn't have any gold, or treasurys for that matter.
If you don't get any advantage from holding either of those, just go 100% stocks.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:14 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Seriously, daily moves in gold and treasuries far exceed any volatility that I have witnessed in equities over the last 7-8 years.
I can almost guarantee that when stocks enter their decline, gold and treasuries will follow as well.
Then you shouldn't have any gold, or treasurys for that matter.
If you don't get any advantage from holding either of those, just go 100% stocks.
Yeah that's a great idea, I think I'll do that.
There's a rhythm or pattern to the portfolio assets in the short term that is difficult to ignore.
Who amongst us has not witnessed gold and treasuries running up until the event and then declining shortly thereafter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:34 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
buddtholomew wrote:Seriously, daily moves in gold and treasuries far exceed any volatility that I have witnessed in equities over the last 7-8 years.
I can almost guarantee that when stocks enter their decline, gold and treasuries will follow as well.
Then you shouldn't have any gold, or treasurys for that matter.
If you don't get any advantage from holding either of those, just go 100% stocks.
Yeah that's a great idea, I think I'll do that.
There's a rhythm or pattern to the portfolio assets in the short term that is difficult to ignore.
Who amongst us has not witnessed gold and treasuries running up until the event and then declining shortly thereafter.
It's actually very easy to ignore those patterns, or to consider them irrelevant.

The latter is what I do, and it saves me a lot of work in posting here about being upset whenever asset prices go down.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:37 am

By that measure everything is irrelevant.
So you see the pattern too.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Sep 27, 2017 11:51 am

buddtholomew wrote:By that measure everything is irrelevant.
So you see the pattern too.
Sort of irrelevant, yeah. I complain, but there are no better alternatives (for me and my makeup)!

100% in stocks? Great for the past 8 years, but who knew?
100% in gold? Depending on purchase date, you are comfortably ahead, near dead even, or severely under water. Who knew?
Etc, etc.

A slightly tweaked PP is still optimal, for me, so much that I plan on buying Craig's and Harry's books for my daughters at some point and hope they follow some version of it for their assets.

And not be as freaking anal about checking it all the time like I do. ;)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:08 pm

As you know I've been selling gold for SCV as mentioned above. I don't want to have to manage the portfolio this closely but you can see the money coming out of gold and treasuries so visibly its almost foolish to just let it be...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:15 pm

buddtholomew wrote:As you know I've been selling gold for SCV as mentioned above. I don't want to have to manage the portfolio this closely but you can see the money coming out of gold and treasuries so visibly its almost foolish to just let it be...
Then close your eyes and don't let your pattern seeking and emotions rule your finances. It's dangerous.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:21 am

I bought a handful of coins just before the plummet, when spot was ~1299. Whatever.
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