The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:52 pm

Haha. Well it is not surprising that the sellers came out today. Shorting gold at $1350 has been the easiest money in the world for damn near a decade now. But we still closed the day even, so they sellers couldn't actually drop the price. If the buyers keep pounding on the ceiling and don't give up, they will break through. The sellers showed a bit of weakness today, they couldn't get the job done and bring it down. I really think a lot rides on the Fed next week, not just in gold but in all markets. With the market expecting a 50bp drop in the next month, I mean just Powell saying the wrong adjunctive once could cause massive commotion. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a volatile week all around. Buckle up those seatbelts!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:44 am

Or just don’t look for 12 months.

(Says the guy who regularly posts prices, I admit. O0 )
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 19, 2019 9:12 pm

Holy crap! Is this a breakout?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm

I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3353
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:23 am

My gold stake has grown all by itself from 10% to 11%. I am well pleased. I'm going let it run.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm
I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:34 am

I was wondering the same thing.
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 7:52 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:26 pm
I think where it goes on the next pullback is quite important. If it never goes below $1250, that's good.
$1250 or $1350? $1250 would be a pretty large pullback at this point
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am

Yes this is a legit breakout from an 8 year base. If we drop much below $1350 then it's a failed breakout and is likely to drop fast. So we don't want to see below $1350 ever. However, it would not be a surprise at all if we pulled back and retested that $1350 in the coming weeks. I think that would be healthy to cement in the support level with a successful retest. It's also possible we could rocket up if we get a short squeeze and never retest. I think about $1400 is when the short squeeze is likely to really pick up steam.

My only concern is that bonds (TLT) and the S&P are both testing breakouts today as well (though it looks like the S&P is rejecting at the moment). Though both of them are a bit more extended and not coming out of as nice of a base as gold, it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day. I suspect 1 or 2 will be false breakouts and prairie dog it. Which will it be? Gold certainly seems to be the most decisive breakout today, so that's a good sign for gold. Though, who knows with this administration, every day there is potential for surprise, haha.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jun 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Gold has gone up a bit since I last checked, solid. But I'm finding it more awesome that 'prairie dogging' is a technical analysis term, since I'm more familiar with it as poop humor.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 20, 2019 1:50 pm

pmward wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:32 am
it is very strange to see all 3 testing breakouts on the same day
+1
I don't like 3 assets going up on the same day even when it's not a breakout. Makes me nervous.

kriegs: ugh. Reabsorption, I bet.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm

Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
jacksonM
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 364
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:59 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonM » Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:01 pm
Almost 6.5 years since gold has been at this level. March 2014. Wow. Hope it holds. About freaking time.
Original ETF gold I bought (IAU) just went from red to green for the first time in a long time.

Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)

Assuming the huge jump today was because of the threat of war with Iran. Despite the gains, I would rather that didn't happen.
Last edited by jacksonM on Fri Jun 21, 2019 6:37 am, edited 2 times in total.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:05 pm

I think it's mostly about the Fed to be honest. I think that's why everything is rallying, expectations of Fed easing. However, I'm not so sure Fed easing is really a good thing for stocks long term, it's just buying a little bit of time is all.
User avatar
Dieter
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 655
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm

Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.

Weird....

:)
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj » Thu Jun 20, 2019 9:04 pm

And now it's up over $1410. Not gonna complain!
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:50 am

O0
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 am

Dieter wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm
Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.
jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm
Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)
Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
jacksonM
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 364
Joined: Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:59 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonM » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:27 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 8:47 am
Dieter wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 8:45 pm
Wow, Quicken doth say my gold ROI is > 0%.
jacksonM wrote:
Thu Jun 20, 2019 4:25 pm
Physical gold, unfortunately, is still a bit underwater as some of the first ones I bought were for $1725/ounce. (Correction: Even my physical gold hit the break even point yesterday)
Same here. Bought some gold back in 2012 for close to $1800, but overall it's at 0% nominal. If you look at Tyler's heat map, 2013-2015 really brutalized gold's returns.
Yes, I remember the brutalization of gold very well but strangely enough it increased my confidence in the PP because it showed me that one sector can endure a complete meltdown without ruining the whole portfolio. I think I was down, at the most, about 2% overall during that period.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm

I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm

Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14232
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 21, 2019 3:31 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol.
I recommend psyllium seed and plenty of water.
Sam Bankman-Fried sentenced to 25 years
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1959
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pm

pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1731
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:47 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Jun 22, 2019 1:26 pm
pmward wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 2:31 pm
Well I think it's safe to say bonds was a false breakout, as they spent one day above resistance and then plunged back down very powerfully today. Stocks also rejected, though not with as much strength as bonds. So Krieg got himself not one, but TWO prairie dogs today, lol. So far gold is the only of the three assets to be holding their breakout. It does seem to be getting some hesitation at $1400 though, I think getting some space above that level is key to trigger the more stubborn shorts to cover.
This sounds like coverage of a horse race!

It's kind of fun to listen to stuff like this even though it's not even slightly doing justice to the market forces that are driving these trends - which are likely far more complex than any one person understands. It's why trying to manipulate prices produces results that even people who spend lifetimes studying it can't predict.

Very few people seem to understand this...Harry Browne did, very well.
Haha, yeah I'm just looking at the short term on this. The only reason for short term moves is pretty much all speculation. There's no real reason or logic behind it, it's all greed and fear. The complexity behind what is causing that speculation is out of my wheelhouse, all I can do is examine and analyze the results of the speculation, not the underlying cause. At any point in time there are large institutional shorts and longs for every asset, and there are certain levels that both will throw in the towel and levels that both will double down. These short term levels are fairly predictable and do follow repeatable patterns. Short term sentiment can also change on a dime though, there is no such thing as a risk free trade. But sometimes that short term sentiment turns into long term sentiment and that is what benefits us here. Mainly the reason I post this stuff now is because I am extremely bullish on gold, and the negativity on gold the last few months here has made no sense to me since from a technical standpoint every signal I use is bullish on gold and has been for months now. While most have been pessimistic on gold, I've been slowly watching the steam build up since back in the winter, just waiting for the moment the top blows off, haha.
User avatar
Dieter
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 655
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Dieter » Tue Jun 25, 2019 9:30 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jun 21, 2019 1:51 pm
I'm still down 5-6% overall and very envious of you breakeven guys.
I did go slow (and am still low gold - GBish for part of retirement savings), but a solid percentage of my Gold still underwater.

Started buying IAU in 2012. To date, purchase price between around 16.5 (2012) and 11 (2016).

Interesting first few years of Gold and LTT ownership. 2013 sucked (switched from Bogleheadish ~65/35 in 2012)

But yes, nice to be overall Gold positive.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jul 02, 2019 2:15 pm

If the last month in gold doesn't have your head spinning, you are a very calm person.

Sunday night, oh yeah, Trump is pulling back on all the China tariff talk, gold is going to get hammered. And it did.

Tuesday morning -- what changed??
Post Reply