The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Vil
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:42 am

On a funny note, today https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html , returns back HTTP response code 504 with the following explanation:

We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error.

;D

Guess those are words of wisdom and actually they meant some more global configuration error .. ;D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am

So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:02 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am
So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.
Is it falling relative to other currencies? The dollar is special, and stuff.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:40 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:33 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:04 pm
dualstow wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:21 pm
Just print the photo in full color and keep it in your pocket. It’s worth about the same.
If your printer uses real gold for that color, that may be right.
Mere hyperbole. O0 I’m just proselytizing for 1oz coins.
Of course I wouldn't recommend that anyone put a lot of their assets into that form, but it is very cool and the premium hasn't been completely outrageous. So buying one or two wouldn't necessarily be a dumb idea.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am
So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.
Not fishy at all. The heavily levered futures contracts that big funds trade have more of an impact on gold price than the unlevered coins that individual investors purchase.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:19 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:16 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Wed Mar 18, 2020 6:22 am
So there's a run on physical bullion, to the extent that gold sellers are running out, but the price is falling? Something smells fishy here.
Not fishy at all. The heavily levered futures contracts that big funds trade have more of an impact on gold price than the unlevered coins that individual investors purchase.
Yes, that makes sense. But it did seem pretty weird in 2008 when the price was dropping like a rock and there was almost nothing to purchase.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:24 am

So much of this sounds exactly like talk that was going around gold bug circles in 2008-2011. Paper price is disconnecting from physical, gold coins are out of stock, yada yada. To think I used to look at the King World News articles all the time back then and all the same voices saying the same stuff now. Bah. Looking for excuses on why gold hasn't performed as expected...yet.

But real helicopter money is coming this time. The numbers everyone is talking about this time always end in "trillions."

If gold can't perform over the next year or two, then I may start cutting down my allocation percentage.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:29 am

Levered players always control every market, not just gold. Right now in the liquidity squeeze institutions are selling... not because they want to, but because they have to. If anything, from a gold perspective it should be comforting that this is brining back memories of 2008. I mean gold went on an epic run just after that. This is why I'm looking to do a 5% overbalance if we hit that 1350-1400 retest area, I think that's the perfect launching pad, and I expect institutional buyers to really step up at that level. Also, look at the steepener in the yield curve going on right now. 10 year yields are back up to 1.1% after being as low as 0.36% last week. That's going to be bad for gold in the short term, but it shows that the market is starting to fear inflation a bit with all the stimulus announced (not to mention the supply side disruptions).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:05 pm

Interestingly enough, Texas Metals just emailed me this, totally on point to the earlier discussion: https://mailchi.mp/texmetals/why-is-the ... uge-demand
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:20 pm

Basically, it just seems like the demand for paper vs. physical gold is different, so their prices are different. Sometimes they're very similar, other times (like now) physical is in much higher demand.

Coin dealers can't keep coins on their shelves because they're not raising the premiums high enough, just like grocers can't keep product on their shelves because they refuse to raise prices (and are crucified by everyone if they do).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:36 pm

For posterity

Image
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Mar 23, 2020 4:28 pm

byoo-tee-full.

Would love to see gold kick in as long as it's out of stock and I am unable to add to my tiny coffers.

First character looks like the ancient form of 子, son, but I'm not sure about the second.

Edit: wife says it's 子鼠, year of the rat. (Tips hat to Vinny).
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:00 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:36 pm
For posterity

Image
That's the biggest gain in $ but not in percentages. The London gold fix was up about 11% from January 15th to January 16th.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:22 pm

All I know is I'm feeling pretty good about that Krugerand I picked up at $1477. In the present circumstances, I will take my wins where I can.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:32 am

Updating my PP spreadsheet this morning, I typed in the gold price off Kitco. When I was done messing with some other stuff, I went back to Kitco to see if it had changed. It was up like $100/oz. Pretty wild.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:41 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 7:32 am
Updating my PP spreadsheet this morning, I typed in the gold price off Kitco. When I was done messing with some other stuff, I went back to Kitco to see if it had changed. It was up like $100/oz. Pretty wild.
Whoa, you’re not kidding! Up $100+
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am

Where the heck is the price at? Different sites are showing anywhere from 1580 something to 1680 something?!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am
Where the heck is the price at? Different sites are showing anywhere from 1580 something to 1680 something?!
According to Kitco, the range today has been from 1556 to 1689, and we're now at 1589, up $38.

I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 am

Holy smokes. Everything is popping (except bonds). Did somebody announce a cure for the bug overnight and I missed it?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:17 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:15 am
Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:32 am
Where the heck is the price at? Different sites are showing anywhere from 1580 something to 1680 something?!
According to Kitco, the range today has been from 1556 to 1689, and we're now at 1589, up $38.

I wouldn't want to be a bullion dealer today.
Apparently Kitco doesn't want to be a bullion dealer today either.
Their gold pool bid is 1504 and ask is 1657!
(Normally there is a $1 spread).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 am
Holy smokes. Everything is popping (except bonds). Did somebody announce a cure for the bug overnight and I missed it?
No, the Fed announcement did it.
My understanding is that they are buying everything in the world with freshly printed money.
I guess we're going to find out if MMT is correct.
(My answer: no).
Simonjester wrote: agreed MMT is not going to prove correct, but my hunch is it will take a fair amount of time and a more than a few MMT actions to be proven so.. MR on the other hand (MMT without the statist wishful utopian fantasy) still seems like a sound explanation of how money works nowadays, and may end up being a useful tool..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:27 am

Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 am
Holy smokes. Everything is popping (except bonds). Did somebody announce a cure for the bug overnight and I missed it?
No, the Fed announcement did it.
My understanding is that they are buying everything in the world with freshly printed money.
Image
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:45 am

Heh.
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You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:16 am

Simonjester wrote:
Libertarian666 wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:18 am
Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue Mar 24, 2020 9:16 am
Holy smokes. Everything is popping (except bonds). Did somebody announce a cure for the bug overnight and I missed it?
No, the Fed announcement did it.
My understanding is that they are buying everything in the world with freshly printed money.
I guess we're going to find out if MMT is correct.
(My answer: no).
agreed MMT is not going to prove correct, but my hunch is it will take a fair amount of time and a more than a few MMT actions to be proven so.. MR on the other hand (MMT without the statist wishful utopian fantasy) still seems like a sound explanation of how money works nowadays, and may end up being a useful tool..
This right here! The theory behind MMT is valid. The problems can come with assumptions of what can be done to implement it in practice (taking the theory and using it to justify particular political agendas that otherwise would be seen as wasteful). People have this tendency to be binary all or nothing. We are not good at finding balance in anything. And l also agree, that for the first few years MMT will feel amazing. Growth will finally return (S&P 500 profits in aggregate peaked in 2012), inflation will pick up a bit (but not too much... at first), wage growth will kick in, us normal people will start to actually make some progress for the first time in over a decade. It will feel amazing. And there is exactly where the danger lies. If some feels amazing, politicians will assume more is better. Eventually they will test and find where that upper boundary is. But it will not be something imminent that happens in the next couple years. These are long term things.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:28 am

Simonjester wrote:agreed MMT is not going to prove correct, but my hunch is it will take a fair amount of time and a more than a few MMT actions to be proven so.. MR on the other hand (MMT without the statist wishful utopian fantasy) still seems like a sound explanation of how money works nowadays, and may end up being a useful tool..
Agreed also.
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