The GOLD scream room

[mathjak107]

i was going to speculate in gld a few days ago thinking it was due for a brief pop  and i would sell . went with exxon instead for my quick pick and glad i did .  it was the bigger drop in exxon since i sold it that had me buying it instead of gld .

i will look again when it is in the high 900's

[dualstow]

Yawn. Isn't there already an entire thread dedicated to your retroactive market calls?

[mathjak107]

but it ain't about gold .

stop your whinning  (yawn)  that is what ignore is for .

[Cortopassi]

I make 20% daily.  I can show you how too, at my free seminar. 

[mathjak107]

I think that seminar is held on the same day as the LEARN  HOW TO TURN GOOD MONEY IN  TO BAD MONEY seminar.

[dualstow]

Whew, it's not pleasant to watch my gold loss deepen, but I'm getting ever closer to that 15% mark where I can rebalance.
---

stop your whinning  (yawn)  that is what ignore is for .

Right, that is what ignore is for, and you are free to switch it on. As for me, I was tempted to go away, but your "sounds good" response convinced me that if I left, then "the terrorists win." 

I make 20% daily.  I can show you how too, at my free seminar. 

hahaha!

[MachineGhost]

Gold and the dollar can go up at the same time and they will.  Gold is too small of a market to hold capital flows when the foreign sovereign debt starts imploding.  Come to think of it, there is probably no non-financial market on Earth big enough to hold financial money.

Anyway, it looks like the bottom will not be until at least next May, so $680 is looking good at this point if we break $1000.

[ochotona]

Gold and the dollar can go up at the same time and they will.  Gold is too small of a market to hold capital flows when the foreign sovereign debt starts imploding.  Come to think of it, there is probably no non-financial market on Earth big enough to hold financial money.

Anyway, it looks like the bottom will not be until at least next May, so $680 is looking good at this point if we break $1000.

September 2007. I am with you on the $680 figure.

$850-ish is the long-term inflation adjusted "mean" value, if that means anything, and 2x CPI-U is a historic "really good deal", which would be  $500-ish.

[Cortopassi]

Guys,

Can I ask where $680 and $850 and $500 come from?  I know in the past we went back and forth on the $850 number, but I don't recall specifics.

With these same metrics, can you please estimate where S&P and bonds will be at in May of 2016?  Would you use typical PE ratios?  Something else?

I'm serious.  Seems people are really good at predicting gold at various levels of 3 digits.  Not saying we won't get there, there just always seems to be more focus on "how low gold can go" vs. "how low the stock market can go"

[Fred]

Can I ask where $680 and $850 and $500 come from?  I know in the past we went back and forth on the $850 number, but I don't recall specifics.

If someone is really convinced that gold is going to hit these lows then what is the point of continuing to hold it while it's at $1086 (today)?

[dualstow]

I'm wondering the same thing as Cortopassi.
My only magic figure is 0.15.

[MachineGhost]

Can I ask where $680 and $850 and $500 come from?  I know in the past we went back and forth on the $850 number, but I don't recall specifics.

With these same metrics, can you please estimate where S&P and bonds will be at in May of 2016?  Would you use typical PE ratios?  Something else?

I believe $680 is long term trendline support from the 1970's.  I'd have to double check to verify but I'm not too interested at the moment since gold is a dead market.

[ochotona]

Guys,

Can I ask where $680 and $850 and $500 come from?  I know in the past we went back and forth on the $850 number, but I don't recall specifics.

With these same metrics, can you please estimate where S&P and bonds will be at in May of 2016?  Would you use typical PE ratios?  Something else?

I'm serious.  Seems people are really good at predicting gold at various levels of 3 digits.  Not saying we won't get there, there just always seems to be more focus on "how low gold can go" vs. "how low the stock market can go"

In truth, it's all just idle speculation. But I do earnestly believe that the periodicity of the gold price behavior from peak-to-trough that we've seen over the last four decades is much longer than the half-life of human patience. Therefore, I think we do ourselves a disservice if we get in a hurry to transact, one way or the other.

I recently bought a fancy Cuisinart coffeemaker at Macy's for $140, went to pick it up, saw it on sale for $100, argued successfully for a $40 refund, then saw it advertised in a Macy's circular a week later for $70. There you go. I bought too soon. But... maybe there was only one copy at $70, and I would've missed it. Who knows?

What else are we going to discuss here, anyway?

[mathjak107]

futures are still falling and show 1065 as of now.  that is 5 bucks lower on top of the 12.30 it fell today . .  i think we can see it break 1k by next week .

[Cortopassi]

futures are still falling and show 1065 as of now.  that is 5 bucks lower on top of the 12.30 it fell today . .  i think we can see it break 1k by next week .

It is comments like this that almost exclusively fall in the gold and silver camp.  No one anywhere (except maybe gold bugs) would ever come out and tell you that the S&P is probably going to fall 6.5% by next week, yet that is what mathjak just did with gold (without batting an eye), and that would be on top of the drop from near $1200 gold has recently sustained, and on top of the 4 year bear market.

And probably a lot of people will join him.  And it may happen.  And basically no one will care.

Yet say the same thing about the market, and people will call you crazy.  Say 6.5% UP, and people will probably scratch their chin and say, yeah, maybe.

Let me come out and say the S&P will fall 6.5% by the end of next week.  How many of you would think I'm nuts?  No one bats an eye if the same is said about gold.

[Libertarian666]

Guys,

Can I ask where $680 and $850 and $500 come from?  I know in the past we went back and forth on the $850 number, but I don't recall specifics.

With these same metrics, can you please estimate where S&P and bonds will be at in May of 2016?  Would you use typical PE ratios?  Something else?

I'm serious.  Seems people are really good at predicting gold at various levels of 3 digits.  Not saying we won't get there, there just always seems to be more focus on "how low gold can go" vs. "how low the stock market can go"

How do they do it? They make it up. Economics is not a quantitative science, it is a qualitative one, so no economic quantities can be forecast with any reliability.
You might as well use the Magic 8-ball to foretell the future.

[ochotona]

If it's still on sale, take your receipt to the cashier and ask for a refund of the difference. If they refuse [unlikely, if it's within 90 days], simply purchase another one and then return the new, unopened item using the old receipt.

I had already put coffee through it by the time I saw the advert!

[l82start]

If it's still on sale, take your receipt to the cashier and ask for a refund of the difference. If they refuse [unlikely, if it's within 90 days], simply purchase another one and then return the new, unopened item using the old receipt.

I had already put coffee through it by the time I saw the advert!

if its macys you have a good shot of still getting the return on the difference, they have an old school customer service ideal. as long as you have the proof (receipts documentation ) and they know that you are not running a scam, they should give you a return.. they want customer loyalty, if the sales person at the register won't or cant do it. their boss almost certainly will... 

[bedraggled]

Jim Rogers says gold down to $950, a 50% pullback from the high.  Since Jim is worth more than many of us and says there are 50% pullbacks from any bull market high, that may be a reasonable target.  Harry Dent suggested $250 due to deflation.

Wouldn't an overreaction in a big selloff push gold down to the $650 neighborhood?

[l82start]

maybe i am just mis-remembering. but wasn't there a human psychological resistance to jumping over the 1000 dollar mark that kept the price hovering just below for a good long time? if i had to make a prediction it would be that it hovers just above 1000 for a long time till it gets some kind of big push to make the jump to three digits,  (fortunately i am not in a  position where i need to prognosticate and any guesses i make are just speculation for recreation)

[ochotona]

It's interesting gold took a big plunge a few days after the Paris massacre, and the very day a football game was cancelled in Hannover, Germany, and raids took place in St. Denis / Paris due to ISIS. Where is the fear premium?

[Cortopassi]

Just for fun, I took the closing price data for gold, since the peak in Aug 2011 and fit a line to it with 92% correlation (these are GLD prices, so a little off):

y=-.04509x+2009.967 (excel converts dates into numbers)

Y will be zero (i.e. gold will be zero) on 1/15/2022 

[Libertarian666]

It's interesting gold took a big plunge a few days after the Paris massacre, and the very day a football game was cancelled in Hannover, Germany, and raids took place in St. Denis / Paris due to ISIS. Where is the fear premium?

As I've already explained, this is entirely due to the dollar's spike.
Gold is up in every other major currency.
Of course this doesn't make it feel much better to those of us who reckon in dollars, but it is instructive nevertheless.

[Reub]

Just for fun, I took the closing price data for gold, since the peak in Aug 2011 and fit a line to it with 92% correlation (these are GLD prices, so a little off):

y=-.04509x+2009.967 (excel converts dates into numbers)

Y will be zero (i.e. gold will be zero) on 1/15/2022 

mathjak already knew that!

[flyingpylon]

As I've already explained, this is entirely due to the dollar's spike.
Gold is up in every other major currency.
Of course this doesn't make it feel much better to those of us who reckon in dollars, but it is instructive nevertheless.

Anyone noticed that gas prices are down too?  Seems like more than a coincidence, but I really don't know.