Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Nov 04, 2015 4:34 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
I think we need to see three digits in gold to completely destroy morale.
+1
Can't wait to buy!
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MachineGhost
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by MachineGhost » Wed Nov 04, 2015 5:49 pm
barrett wrote:
I don't think Yellen has any viable moves at this point. She'll keep pushing the date for a "intended" rate hike out as long as she can. She kinda can't just come right out and say that the economy is too crappy to raise. In my opinion the next move is QE4. It won't do much but I think The Fed has to appear to be doing something. We'll see. No bullets left at this point. Everything looks deflationary to me but you never know what moves in China, Europe or elsewhere might set something in motion where all this money sloshing around really does end up being inflationary.
There is no money sloshing around. You need to learn some Monetary Realism. Although we can't rule that out in China the way they are a Red Economy. When they inject, it could be literal.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes
Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet. I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 6:38 pm
dualstow wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:
I think we need to see three digits in gold to completely destroy morale.
+1
Can't wait to buy!
I see three digits right now, 1, 0, and 8. What digits do you see?
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Wed Nov 04, 2015 7:27 pm
Libertarian666 wrote:
I see three digits right now, 1, 0, and 8. What digits do you see?
Wow, is it down to 1108? Last I looked was 1115-1130. Getting there!
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Wed Nov 04, 2015 9:26 pm
Apparently the entire gold drop is due to the dollar going straight up. In CHF, gold is doing fine.
When will this stop? When the currency market figures out that the Fed has no intention of ever letting rates go up.
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mathjak107
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by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 2:58 am
markets can be smarter then we think
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:00 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Apparently the entire gold drop is due to the dollar going straight up. In CHF, gold is doing fine.
Glad the pp includes cash.
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mathjak107
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by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 7:23 am
as any good plan does
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:42 am
mathjak107 wrote:
as any good plan does
But this isn't the "any good plan" forum, is it?
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mathjak107
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by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 8:44 am
actually it is since the comparisons here posted by you all are always the pp vs some other plan or allocation .
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dualstow
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by dualstow » Thu Nov 05, 2015 10:42 am
You're tiresome, mathjak. I think I'll give up on this forum for awhile.
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Reub
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by Reub » Thu Nov 05, 2015 11:09 am
Dualstow, you're contributions here are invaluable. I hope that you stick around.
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Jack Jones
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by Jack Jones » Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
You're tiresome, mathjak. I think I'll give up on this forum for awhile.
The ignore list feature has made my experience here much more pleasant.
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mathjak107
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by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 12:52 pm
dualstow wrote:
You're tiresome, mathjak. I think I'll give up on this forum for awhile.
sounds good
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Thu Nov 05, 2015 5:11 pm
Jack Jones wrote:
dualstow wrote:
You're tiresome, mathjak. I think I'll give up on this forum for awhile.
The ignore list feature has made my experience here much more pleasant.
+1000000 internet points.
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Fri Nov 06, 2015 7:45 am
And here we go. I guess we'll get to see how the good jobs report is interpreted.
I say down $30 at least on gold (getting there) and after a quick drop on stocks, the mantra will change from bad for stocks to good for stocks because the economy is improving.
And then there won't be a rate hike because of "other" conditions.
But the damage will have been done on gold yet again.
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Fri Nov 06, 2015 8:56 am
Cortopassi wrote:
And here we go. I guess we'll get to see how the good jobs report is interpreted.
I say down $30 at least on gold (getting there) and after a quick drop on stocks, the mantra will change from bad for stocks to good for stocks because the economy is improving.
And then there won't be a rate hike because of "other" conditions.
But the damage will have been done on gold yet again.
When the rate hike doesn't happen, the dollar will go down.
And since all of the pounding that gold is taking is due to the dollar's ridiculous spike, that will reverse too.
You heard it here first.
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buddtholomew
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by buddtholomew » Fri Nov 06, 2015 9:45 am
Libertarian666 wrote:
Cortopassi wrote:
And here we go. I guess we'll get to see how the good jobs report is interpreted.
I say down $30 at least on gold (getting there) and after a quick drop on stocks, the mantra will change from bad for stocks to good for stocks because the economy is improving.
And then there won't be a rate hike because of "other" conditions.
But the damage will have been done on gold yet again.
When the rate hike doesn't happen, the dollar will go down.
And since all of the pounding that gold is taking is due to the dollar's ridiculous spike, that will reverse too.
You heard it here first.
Keep dreaming...
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Fri Nov 06, 2015 3:37 pm
Budd, I bought a little bit of physical gold today! A one ounce Canadian Maple Leaf! I can't pick the bottom, so I'll buy in little drips whenever the stochastic oscillator shows oversold.
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lordmetroid
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by lordmetroid » Wed Nov 11, 2015 6:29 pm
I only use IAU, no need for physical gold. It has way to much spread, storage/transportation fees and isn't very liquid in comparison.
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 16, 2015 4:10 pm
The reason for physical is no counterparty risk. Sure, you still need to store it safely, but it is portfolio insurance. Liquidity is relative. If some event closes markets long term, you can't get out of IAU, but I can probably sell my coins to someone or the local coin/jewelry shop.
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ochotona
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by ochotona » Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:46 am
$500 by 2023
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Libertarian666
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by Libertarian666 » Tue Nov 17, 2015 11:48 am
And -$500 by 2030? I can't wait!
More seriously, this is
100% caused by the dollar's absurd strength. As soon as that goes away, gold will take off in the upward direction.
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Cortopassi
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by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 17, 2015 12:00 pm
Agree it is caused by dollar strength, but the key word in there -- Absurd.
Is it absurd? You read certain sites, and yes, it is clearly absurd. You read others, and not so much. The US is still the best place to park money, so while I drank the Koolaid for many years thinking there would be high inflation and the dollar would tank, I am not of that opinion now, at least not short/medium term.
It seems many of the gold sites use COT reports and dollar strength/dollar shorting to their advantage when it works for them and discount it when it doesn't.
I recall reading how the COT reports are all a fabrication on a couple of sites and then a few months later the reports are gospel when they works as they expect it to.
Anyway, I am trying to not be extreme toward any asset class. Gold has completely lost its allure for me -- however, I will keep it at 20-25% (liking the looks of the Golden Butterfly portfolio allocation). It is just another asset and I was wrongly too bullish on it and too bearish on other things for too long.
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