buddtholomew wrote:You guys make good points.
Problem for me is I have only been invested in the PP since 2011 so I don’t have any recollection of golds performance from 2000-2010.
All I have to go on is perhaps a small gain after loss harvesting GLD in 2016, offsetting equity gains and reinvesting in IAU.
Corto, check VWILX/VEIEX which is 55% of my portfolio and handily beating gold YTD AND the PP (even after the selloff).
I just don’t think the portfolio is that remarkable.
I want to love it but it continues to let me down.
I guess I always thought a 70/30 is 70% in broad market equities and 30% in long term bonds? Both the funds you list are international.
70/30 stocks/bonds
Usually the bonds are intermediate term.
buddtholomew wrote:You guys make good points.
70/30 stocks/bonds
Usually the bonds are intermediate term.
It is funny to read this argument.
Check out Tyler's charts and compare them for PP and BH in the long term.
After all both are reasonably comparable. PP may help you sleep just a little bit better.
stuper1 wrote:I'm sure those international stock funds do nothing but go up forever, and never go down.
I EXPECT equities (US and International) to rise and fall the magnitude we have seen over the last couple of days.
What is difficult for me to digest is a portfolio that rises significantly less than an equity centric allocation and ALSO decline with the vigor we witnessed on Friday and Monday. Long-term treasuries have already declined > 5% YTD outpacing stocks and Gold is barely positive.
I guess I have to wait 20 years + to see a payoff in my gold investment.
I understand the frustration but I just don’t think anyone ever promised it would work that way on a daily basis. The whole premise is low correlation and in the case of gold, like stuper said, zero correlation, not negative. The benefits unfold slowwwwly, but in return you never have to touch it and if you don’t check for a few years your money will mostly still be there. We know it won’t grow like stocks and we have to expect it to tank hard some days/weeks/months. Don’t forget 1980.
Exactly, don't forget the historical results. We haven't seen anything with the PP that is outside the bounds of historical results. Over the medium- to long-term, however, the results are pretty good. Maybe not as good as a stock-heavy portfolio, but definitely less volatile and more consistent, which can be very important if, say, you happen to lose your job at the same time as the stock market goes into a dive.
I thought you said earlier that you only have 7.5% in gold. That seems like a very modest allocation. I myself feel that 25% gold is too much. I'm aiming for about 15%, with about 2/3 of that in physical as black-swan insurance and 1/3 paper gold for re-balancing.
buddtholomew wrote:Thanks all, definitely frustrated but you are correct nothing outside the PP norm.
Just once make me feel good about holding 25% in Gold. Show me why...
Somehow gold has saved some other people’s asses two decades out of the last five. That’s not bad! Does it feel good even then? I wouldn’t know but I have my doubts.
The rest of the time has to really suck to average out to higher volatility and lower returns than stocks.
Can’t say I’m a big fan of gold and bonds essentially synchronizing since I bought in 2014, but that’s what we have scream rooms for.
"The gold price has risen about 20% since I wrote “It’s Time To Get Greedy In The Gold Market” but it looks to me like it could now get really exciting for gold bulls.
On the weekly chart there is now a clear head and shoulders bottom pattern in play. A break above the neckline would confirm the pattern and project an eventual target near $1,650. There is also a very interesting price analog from 2008-2009 (hat tip, @ECantoni) that suggests this breakout could be imminent."
You know, I've been seeing a belt whisker contraindicator for gold the past few weeks, but it hasn't triple nippled yet, I'm hoping the dandruff shakes off the head and shoulders for all us gold investors soon, know what I'm saying?
