The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:51 pm

Newmont plans for success at a $900 gold price.

https://youtu.be/d7wTjo4avCE
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:17 am

Wouldnt gold work better as money if there were no mining? Its supposed to be a stable benchmark against which to price everything else
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Sep 23, 2019 7:19 am

ochotona wrote:
Sun Sep 22, 2019 4:51 pm
Newmont plans for success at a $900 gold price.

https://youtu.be/d7wTjo4avCE
The other day I read
Many companies, including the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont Goldcorp Corp., say they will only approve new projects if they can make money with gold at $1,200, about 20% below where the metal currently trades.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/as-gold-pr ... 1569144601
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Mon Sep 23, 2019 9:04 am

boglerdude wrote:
Mon Sep 23, 2019 2:17 am
Wouldnt gold work better as money if there were no mining? Its supposed to be a stable benchmark against which to price everything else
Maybe, but mining output adds only a few percent of total stocks every year, and that is very hard to increase.
Fiat money, on the other hand, can be increased in amount with almost no effort, which makes it very poor money.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Oct 02, 2019 10:01 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Oct 02, 2019 5:45 am
Firms offering no commissions on trading:

Charles Schwab (announced 10/1/19)
TD Ameritrade (announced 10/2/19, effective 10/3/19)
Interactive Brokers (the IBKR-Lite tier)

Now you can buy whichever gold ETF you want, without concerns about fees. Probably lots of people will start buying AAAU now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 12:47 pm

holy volatility, Batman
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm

Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:10 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm
Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
WSJ says
In Europe, negative yields on some long-term government bonds—which had alarmed investors when they proliferated earlier in the year—faded amid evidence that easier monetary policy and potentially constructive political developments may have helped the world’s biggest economies dodge a major growth slowdown.
...
Hopes of an initial trade deal between the U.S. and China this week help the outlook for Germany’s export-dependant economy—the eurozone’s largest—in particular, investors say.
WSJ paywalled - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wave-o ... 1573140838

So, I guess- trade tensions easing, bond yields surging.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:58 pm

Yup, it looks like there were public announcements today by both Chinese and American officials that the tariffs on each other's goods would be rolled back in phases if a trade deal is made.

My guess is that that news was the main driver of the sharp drop in gold and LTTs today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonm2 » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:37 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 3:10 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 1:15 pm
Anyone read/hear anything that's slamming gold and bonds today? Everyone will be putting 100% of their money in the stock market forever or something like that? No risk 25% a year investing?
WSJ says
In Europe, negative yields on some long-term government bonds—which had alarmed investors when they proliferated earlier in the year—faded amid evidence that easier monetary policy and potentially constructive political developments may have helped the world’s biggest economies dodge a major growth slowdown.
...
Hopes of an initial trade deal between the U.S. and China this week help the outlook for Germany’s export-dependant economy—the eurozone’s largest—in particular, investors say.
WSJ paywalled - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-wave-o ... 1573140838

So, I guess- trade tensions easing, bond yields surging.
Very interesting that I have to visit this website to find out that something is "slamming" gold and bonds today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Nov 07, 2019 4:42 pm

The Wall Street traders are tripping over one another in a mad rush to dump safe assets for stocks because they think the global economy has been saved. I don't trade, but if I did, I would not be rushing back into stocks. I have confidence in Donald Trump. There is not much he can't screw up. Between Trump, Brexit, the ticking debt bomb and our unstable foreign affairs there are enormous opportunities for unpleasant surprises. For now I'm sticking with the HBPP and my smallish VP (VWIAX and silver).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:01 pm

I'm a gold buyer at $1435 with my 2020 Roth IRA money.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm

What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm
What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm
What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?
That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless -- as well, I have my IRA contribution cash going in early January each year so that adds to the cash amount.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:54 pm

Yes, it would absolutely be timing.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Nov 08, 2019 9:02 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 8:52 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:56 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Nov 07, 2019 5:22 pm
What I'd love in Jan on my annual rebalance is the opposite of what happened last year. With the drop in stocks late last year I was not able to lock in gains and sell some stocks in a rebalance.

This year I'd be able to rebalance a bit out of stocks if this uptrend holds.
You could always do it early. What are the odds that optimum gains are going to line up with your preferred date of sale?
That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless -- as well, I have my IRA contribution cash going in early January each year so that adds to the cash amount.
"That would be timing in a way. Blindly doing it in early January makes it mindless and emotionless"

I support you STAYING the course for the reasons you state! Reading what you wrote reaffirms it all for me.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Fri Nov 08, 2019 12:03 pm

Wow, I'm amazed at how little I care about this....

since I decided to only look at my portfolio every 3 months. When I saw this post I thought, hey maybe I should check...then I thought, nah, got better things to do.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am

Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:02 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am
Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.

I think there is a slowly growing sense that the stock market is overpriced.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Dec 13, 2019 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Dec 13, 2019 11:40 am
Nice to see gold at 1479.

Stocks were supposed to get a big boost from the latest trade & tariff talk. Now flat.
buy on the rumor sell on the news
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 18, 2020 5:32 pm

Hey now, gold is over $1,600/oz.

Gotta love the Everything Bubble 8)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Feb 18, 2020 6:11 pm

Indeed.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am

sophie wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am
from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.
On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity. 🤷‍♂️
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Libertarian666 » Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:46 am

dualstow wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 11:03 am
sophie wrote:
Sat Feb 22, 2020 9:56 am
from dualstow's signature: Gold has passed 1645/oz

Thought this was worth recording permanently because...Geez. What is going on with gold? Is this maybe about the coronavirus? Then again...who knows. It's all crowdspeak.
On CNBC, it was noted that even as people continue to pour money into the market (Stock Scream thread has an article about Mom and Pop investors excited by fee-free trading), there is also money going into classic safe havens. Hence the falling yields and rise in the price of gold. Why are they also going into safe havens? Supposedly a lot of it *is* corona. Some think that the market is finally ready to tank because corona is eating into profits: airline companies, internationally sold beverages, lots of things.

Others think that this will be wrapped up by May- that the virus will be contained, things will go back to normal, and in the rear view mirror, this will look like a buying opportunity. 🤷‍♂️
Or a selling opportunity for gold.

I'm going to be selling a modest amount but not for that reason; I'm planning to buy a house this summer and am raising cash.
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