The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:34 am

Up $4. Not complaining.

The snapbacks on the stock market always seem to come and are almost always amazing.

I wonder what happens when that eventually fails.

Almost a given you can buy the market as close of a big down day and be up the next. Until I try.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:45 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:34 am
Up $4. Not complaining.

The snapbacks on the stock market always seem to come and are almost always amazing.

I wonder what happens when that eventually fails.

Almost a given you can buy the market as close of a big down day and be up the next. Until I try.
Agree; any purchase decisions have to be a part of the overall plan else you’re swinging blindly.

I’m not ecstatic over a 0.33% gain following a 10%+ YTD loss. Whatever, I guess the portfolio works if you get the timing right since I don’t want to be at lower end of the range when/if gold goes positive.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:16 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Aug 16, 2018 11:12 am
All metals rallying except...wait for it...

Au
What did you expect?

My PP is at an all time high after introducing SCV...I’ll hold Gold since backtesting proves it’s useful, but I think having international equity exposure is more beneficial.
I suspect that this is just a brief pause in the general bear market that PMs have been in for a number of years now. Silver in particular is in need of a modest upward correction as it has become rather cheap relative to gold from the perspective of the post 1971 avg silver to gold price ratio. Additionally silver is currently trading below its production costs (around $15-16 oz.). So yeah I think silver is flashing a buy signal for long term investors. But no, I am not looking for a big move upwards anytime soon. That said markets in the near term can be wildly irrational and there is a lot of downward pressure on PMs including heavy short selling and the move to the dollar given the latest fiat paper currency crisis. If silver were to resume its decline, I would see it as a buy.

[Edit: I misread a source on the production costs of silver mining and have struck that part of my comment. While I still think silver looks attractive on a speculative basis that part of my comment was factually erroneous. The correct cost of silver extraction for miners is in the $10.50 - $11.00 range. A/O]
Last edited by Ad Orientem on Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
whatchamacallit
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:40 am

Even though I probably bought some at 1800 originally, I had some luck recently and got completely out at 1330 this year. I just got back in a little at 1180.


Biggest comfort for me right now with gold is the fact the central banks own it still. I was otherwise losing the faith.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 17, 2018 2:58 pm

Desert wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 9:56 am
I'm attempting to buy some GLDM today via a limit order. If the order executes, that will likely send the metal's price spiraling downwards.

Sorry dualstow, but I just couldn't wait any longer. :)
Hah. Please don’t be sorry! I’m looking forward to buying a few coins very soon! Whether the price goes up or down.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 17, 2018 3:00 pm

whatchamacallit wrote:
Fri Aug 17, 2018 10:40 am

Biggest comfort for me right now with gold is the fact the central banks own it still. I was otherwise losing the faith.
Didn’t Greg Ip write something yesterday about the Depression being caused by France hoarding gold? Oh well, that was hoarding.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Sun Aug 19, 2018 12:39 am

Yeah, people hoard gold and bitcoin which makes them bad currencies but good assets. Trade shouldnt be restricted just because people dont have paper to write IOUs. Paper is supposed to be worthless.

Central Banks can use gold to settle huge transactions, but for citizens it's antiquated. Unless (until?) there's social chaos leading to monetary chaos.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:31 am

Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:12 pm

Kbg wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:31 am
Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.
I thought it would happen yesterday.
Russia started buying a lot of gold and getting rid of American LTTs.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:33 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:34 am
Kbg wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:31 am
Go gold! :-) Up today 1.86% as of now.
You all missed the bottom! O0
Actually I nailed it.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9655&start=12

O0 >:D 8) ;) ::)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:42 pm

Oh, c'mon. Please don't try to associate any world events to gold anymore. Haven't we learned?

Wake me up when we pass $1400.

The bottom. Hah. We'll see.

:)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:00 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:15 pm
Kbg wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:33 pm
MangoMan wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 11:34 am


You all missed the bottom! O0
Actually I nailed it.

viewtopic.php?f=5&t=9655&start=12

O0 >:D 8) ;) ::)
Bravo. Where can I subscribe to your newsletter? :D
My personal and magnanimous generosity to the board. I do have this bridge for sell if you are interested however. :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Aug 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Fri Aug 24, 2018 12:42 pm
Oh, c'mon. Please don't try to associate any world events to gold anymore. Haven't we learned?
Cortopassi is correct. The only reliable indicator of movement in the price of gold is when I buy some. At that point it is assured of going down. Should have kept you all up to date on my purchases (thankfully they are mostly behind us).

But seriously, Harry Browne once talked about 9/11 in one of his podcasts (which I had printed out and was reading in my easy chair) and he was not at all surprised that the price of gold didn't move much in response to that event. His reasoning was that it had no immediate discernible effect on the strength of the USD.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:34 am

Here we go again
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:56 am

Hah.

I AM FINALLY THERE! I just have realized it over the past couple weeks.

I don't give a shit where gold is at. I don't look much at all anymore.

I'd be happy for that sub $1000 price, right around the beginning of Jan please.

Oh and look, the market still goes up. And TLT still goes down. HAH.

If it is dead money, so be it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Sep 27, 2018 10:31 am

It’s just a rotten investment.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:26 am

For now, absolutely! It sucks!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:55 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:56 am
Hah.

I AM FINALLY THERE! I just have realized it over the past couple weeks.

I don't give a shit where gold is at. I don't look much at all anymore.

I'd be happy for that sub $1000 price, right around the beginning of Jan please.

Oh and look, the market still goes up. And TLT still goes down. HAH.

If it is dead money, so be it.

So glad I set my allocation to only 10% gold. And my bond durations to intermediate. Thank you Jim Rickards and Schwab's Kathy Jones.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Sep 27, 2018 2:04 pm

ochotona wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:55 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:56 am
Hah.

I AM FINALLY THERE! I just have realized it over the past couple weeks.

I don't give a shit where gold is at. I don't look much at all anymore.

I'd be happy for that sub $1000 price, right around the beginning of Jan please.

Oh and look, the market still goes up. And TLT still goes down. HAH.

If it is dead money, so be it.

So glad I set my allocation to only 10% gold. And my bond durations to intermediate. Thank you Jim Rickards and Schwab's Kathy Jones.
Should have been 100% stocks
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:44 pm

If only they would hurry up with those time machines!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:03 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:44 pm
If only they would hurry up with those time machines!
They did. I mean, they invented them a million years ago, for them. They just don’t feel inclined to visit or help us out here in this time-backwater.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:27 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:03 pm
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Sep 27, 2018 4:44 pm
If only they would hurry up with those time machines!
They did. I mean, they invented them a million years ago, for them. They just don’t feel inclined to visit or help us out here in this time-backwater.
Who can blame them?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:59 am

Sure does look like gold is hard tied to the Yuan nowadays, and they just eased:

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economic ... 0TAy4tulA/
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:56 am

There’s always a reason for this fuckin portfolio to suck.
I don’t care what anyone says but this is the WORST portfolio imaginable. Rotten to the core.

This will fall on deaf ears, but PP investors will have the lowest allocation in Gold and LTT’s when they kick in (if ever). Curse the day I ever read about this portfolio. Must unwind positions.

Gold and LTT’s are down > 10% YTD...that’s worse than any stock declines I’m trying to protect myself from. It’s true, more money is lost trying to mitigate declines in stocks. Might as well hold 100% stocks over this junk.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tyler » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:28 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:56 am
Gold and LTT’s are down > 10% YTD...that’s worse than any stock declines I’m trying to protect myself from.
Being frustrated is fine but that statement is factually wrong and will only set you up for even greater disappointment. Stocks have FAR more downside than 10%, so don't let your feelings cloud your judgment. Also, it's a good time to remember that the portfolio as a whole is only down less than 2% YTD. If you really can't handle that, forget 100% stocks -- you shouldn't be investing at all.

As one internet friend to another who has experienced some of your same frustrations at times, I personally think you should seek a new way of approaching life. You're already tremendously wealthy but for some reason are still letting money rule your emotions and upset you on a daily basis. I can guarantee simply changing portfolios isn't going to fix that, so focus on addressing the root cause of your stress rather than putting your investments on a pedestal as the only way out. They're not, and you deserve better!
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