The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
eufo
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Dec 05, 2016 7:17 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo »

Cortopassi wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:52 pmI'm sure I don't have to tell you, I still hear way too many people talking about it being on sale, backing up the truck, stacking more, etc.
Really? That hasn't been my experience. I hear FAR more calling gold a relic with no dividend or just not talking about gold at all. It is a hated asset right now, which makes me like it all the more.
Cortopassi wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 3:52 pmI still think gold deserves a darn good percentage, but don't get obsessed! It is a harsh mistress.
Indeed, but still worth that dance. ;)
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona »

The hatedness needs to push it under $1000
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

ochotona wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:51 am Look out below! $1231 now. Please touch $950 sometime in the next couple of years.
Ocho, we are notorious for moving the goal posts...
When it hits 950 USD why can’t it go lower?
I suspect when it’s time to come you will wait for lower prices.
Weren’t you just recently waiting for 1280 or 1260?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona »

buddtholomew wrote: Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:59 am
ochotona wrote: Tue Jul 17, 2018 8:51 am Look out below! $1231 now. Please touch $950 sometime in the next couple of years.
Ocho, we are notorious for moving the goal posts...
When it hits 950 USD why can’t it go lower?
I suspect when it’s time to come you will wait for lower prices.
Weren’t you just recently waiting for 1280 or 1260?
I had a little cash, I did indeed buy some GLDM in my HSA account when gold was $1257... but I'm going to hang back and wait to see if the debacle gets worse
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

Loss harvesting. Nice. One day I would like to harvest gains. Doesn't feel like in my lifetime right now.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

A great article discussing the different time periods from 1972 to now and the ying-yang between gold and stocks.

https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-v ... ket-bulls/
User avatar
Tyler
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2066
Joined: Sat Nov 12, 2011 3:23 pm
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tyler »

Cortopassi wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 11:16 am A great article discussing the different time periods from 1972 to now and the ying-yang between gold and stocks.

https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-v ... ket-bulls/
Nice! Thanks for sharing.
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

This guy is a good writer. I suggest anyone having time go through their blog archive. Another great one on diversification and fear of missing out:

https://pensionpartners.com/diversifica ... ssing-out/

Snippets:

Any way you look at it (from a conservative to aggressive allocation), diversified portfolios have failed to keep pace with the juggernaut known as the S&P.

So why doesn’t everyone diversify?

Because diversifying means there will always be an asset class beating you. Today, that asset class is U.S. equities and the fear of missing out (FOMO) on further gains is palpable.

Over the past seven years, each of the following asset classes have all massively trailed U.S. equities: International bonds, U.S. investment grade bonds, U.S. Treasuries, Asia-Pacific stocks, European stocks, and Emerging Market stocks.

Of course, no one can be sure of what will happen over the next seven years and few can handle higher volatility/drawdowns than their risk tolerance suggests.

Which is why we diversify in the first place: to protect ourselves from the unknowable future and the visceral responses we all have to volatility/drawdowns. That protection is nothing to apologize for, even if it means massively underperforming the S&P 500 over a seven-year period. To the contrary, it is to be commended.
Kbg
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2815
Joined: Fri May 23, 2014 4:18 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg »

Kbg wrote: Fri Jul 06, 2018 1:40 pm I'm glad someone flagged the above as deceptive.

Let's try a reputable site (and note starting points make a BIG difference):

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... allocation

100% Gold vs. 100% US Total Stock Mkt (CAGR) through 5/31/18

1/1/72 Start: 7.47/10.37
1/1/82: 3.13/11.24
1/1/92: 4.84/9.55
1/1/02: 9.52/7.98
1/1/12: -3.23/14.92

Same as above, but cherry picking favorable dates for each asset class

1/1/72 - 12/31/80 (Gold Bull): 33.59/8.59
1/1/75 - 12/31/00 (Stock Bull): 1.45/15.73
1/1/81 - 12/31/99 (Gold Bear): -3.65/15.91
1/1/00 - 12/31/11 (Gold Bull): 14.77/1.18
1/1/00 - 12/31/02 (Stock Bear): 5.63/-14.31
1/1/08 - 12/31/08 (Stock Bear): 4.92/-37.04
1/1/11 - 12/31/15 (Gold Bear): -9.16/14.98
1/1/09 - 5/31/18 (Stock Bull): 3.82/14.95

So now that we have some unbiased and deliberately biased data points, what are our conclusions?

Perhaps some data will help...50/50 split between the two assets added to the end of the first table.

1/1/72: 7.47/10.37/10.24
1/1/82: 3.13/11.24/7.89
1/1/92: 4.84/9.55/7.93
1/1/02: 9.52/7.98/9.56
1/1/12: -3.23/14.92/6.34

If one runs the site's Monte Carlo simulation using the default values (the main thing is an annual 4.5% withdrawal rate) and the 10 percentile (bad luck) results you will note the following:

There is a 100% chance of running out of portfolio with a 100% stock or gold portfolio.

Best performance is 50/50 stock gold
Safest is the PP or 1/3rd each to Stk/Gld/LTTs

And for a slight twist...a simple dual momentum approach works quite well and beats a 50/50 port
Looks familiar...https://pensionpartners.com/gold-bugs-v ... -140339045
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

And, he didn't like low rates when the Dems were in power. Hypocrites.

Image
modeljc
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 271
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:52 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc »

I am a fan of PP. OK! So here is something that no one can do. Perdict the price of gold for 17 years out! Let me start with the price of Production: It is about $1100 to produce an ounce of gold. Why pay more!

Jumping to a conclusion gold will not be over $1900 for 17 years if you believe in the 17 years cycle.

Start with 1966 to 1983 it was gold. The top was about $800. Above the cost of production of about $250 or so!
Then 1983 to 2000 it was stocks. The cost of production was about $400.
2000 to 2017 saw a $1900 top in gold.

So gold bugs may need to wait if there is a 17 year cycle.

There is a lot research on the 17 year cycle. I just use it to think about what might work going forward.

So I bet we seen the top for years!
User avatar
sophie
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1960
Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:15 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie »

buddtholomew wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
modeljc
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 271
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:52 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc »

sophie wrote: Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:51 am
buddtholomew wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
I agree but I still take the bet!
modeljc
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 271
Joined: Sat Feb 04, 2012 11:52 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc »

modeljc wrote: Sun Jul 22, 2018 2:50 pm
sophie wrote: Sun Jul 22, 2018 9:51 am
buddtholomew wrote: Thu Jul 19, 2018 9:42 am Is everyone sitting down?
I’ve come full circle, acceptance.
Sticking to rebalancing bands and focusing on loss harvesting.
It’s easier that way for all of us!
Who are you and what have you done with Buddtholomew!

Congrats to you! Your peace of mind will thank you. Put the gold investment out of sight/out of mind, and when you need it, it'll be there for you.

BTW I don't buy that 17 year cycle bit. Gold prices react to whatever's going on in the world, and what's happening now is not the same as what's happened in the past, nor the future. The world changes and its state will never be repeated. Even if the same event happens, say, at two time points 20 years apart, the state of the world at those time points is different so the reaction will be different. I just don't think anyone has enough information to make these sorts of predictions.
I agree but I still take the bet!
I thought about it and there is no way to collect the bet! I am 81 on July 26th. I love your posts!
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona »

Whew almost broke 1213...
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

ochotona wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...

I need a crystal ball to tell me where my portfolio is in 10 years. Higher than now? If yes, I should just pull the plug on all these stupid sites I STILL go to and delete all my bookmarks to this site and any and all investment and business sites.

What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.

Image
hardlawjockey
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Apr 28, 2018 3:30 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by hardlawjockey »

Cortopassi wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.
Try some music.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona »

The decline won't persist forever. It'll bounce eventually
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Here’s the narrative out there as far as I can see.
Trade war = stronger dollar = higher yields = lower gold.
Until one of the variables change Gold will stay lower and lower and lower...
User avatar
Cortopassi
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3338
Joined: Mon Feb 24, 2014 2:28 pm
Location: https://www.jwst.nasa.gov/content/webbL ... sWebb.html

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

hardlawjockey wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:34 pm
Cortopassi wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm What am I going to hear about on the drive home?? Oohhhh, Apple is a TRILLION dollars. And that will be on the regular news, the nightly news the news websites, etc, etc.
Try some music.
I have been. I am on T of my A to Z listening in my collection over the past few weeks!
User avatar
drumminj
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 319
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2015 9:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by drumminj »

Cortopassi wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
ochotona wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...
Are you selling anytime soon? No? Then it doesn't really matter.

As you know (and have said), it's about the portfolio, not the components in isolation. All have draw-downs. Insurance has a cost. Presumably the peace of mind given by the insurance has value -- focus on that!
User avatar
buddtholomew
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2464
Joined: Fri May 21, 2010 4:16 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

drumminj wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 10:08 pm
Cortopassi wrote: Thu Aug 02, 2018 4:11 pm
ochotona wrote: Tue Jul 31, 2018 8:33 am Whew almost broke 1213...
Gold sucks. Figure we break 1200 tomorrow. 1.5 years wiped away, yet again. I am channeling budd here...
Are you selling anytime soon? No? Then it doesn't really matter.

As you know (and have said), it's about the portfolio, not the components in isolation. All have draw-downs. Insurance has a cost. Presumably the peace of mind given by the insurance has value -- focus on that!
Isn’t the PP negative YTD?
How does one focus on the portfolio and ignore Gold when it is down almost 8% with a 15% drawdown this year?
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona »

Was listening to Macro Voices podcast, and an idea I picked up there is if that US Dollar Index could go from 95 to 100 or even higher, gold could retest lows below $1200.
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel »

buddtholomew wrote: Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:14 am How does one focus on the portfolio and ignore Gold when it is down almost 8% with a 15% drawdown this year?
[pocket protector engage]After CAGRing 6.54% in the past couple years, the PP can be expected to regress to the mean.

Using Tyler's rolling returns calculator, the PP has had a 3 year rolling CAGR over 6% in 15/48 years, or about 31%.
4 year rolling drops to 29%
5 year 25%
6 year 16.6%
7 year 12.5%
[/pocket protector]
Post Reply