The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow »

barrett wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:18 am
ALSO, and maybe I'm a bit of a weirdo here, it makes me uncomfortable when I feel that all assets are very high because it then looks like there's very little upside juice left.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

PP doing so wonderfully today...
Gold majestic!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:50 am PP doing so wonderfully today...
Gold majestic!
I didn't look today. neither yesterday or day before.
Is it some kind of masochistic experience to keep your hand on the market pulse?
Definitely damaging some nerves in that way.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 10:12 am
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 9:50 am PP doing so wonderfully today...
Gold majestic!
I didn't look today. neither yesterday or day before.
Is it some kind of masochistic experience to keep your hand on the market pulse?
Definitely damaging some nerves in that way.
+1
I try not to look unless I think I'm going to like what I see. And the longer you can hold off looking, the more likely it is that you will like what you see.
Also known as a watched pot never boils.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.

I look at the PP even more simplistically now - I hold Gold and LTT’s in the hope they will outperform the risk free rate over time. That’s about it. Nothing more.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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vincent_c wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.

It just comes down to this question: Are you speculating with the PP or investing in it?

If you're speculating with it, then yes, by all means check your portfolio every day to decide whether to keep going or change course.

But if you're investing in it, checking your portfolio every day is pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. You are tempting fate by doing that.

I think of it like riding through choppy water. If I'm speculating, I'm on a jet ski and need to know at all times if a big wave is approaching so I can maneuver appropriately to avoid getting clobbered by it. But if I'm investing, I'm on a big boat and don't need to worry myself and possibly jump overboard every time the ship bobs up and down from a wave. I just need the boat to be stable enough that I don't get violently seasick from the motion. Even if the boat's size and stability slows my journey down a bit, I can be confident that I'll reach my destination eventually.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

Tortoise wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:07 pm
vincent_c wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.

It just comes down to this question: Are you speculating with the PP or investing in it?

If you're speculating with it, then yes, by all means check your portfolio every day to decide whether to keep going or change course.

But if you're investing in it, checking your portfolio every day is pointless at best and counterproductive at worst. You are tempting fate by doing that.

I think of it like riding through choppy water. If I'm speculating, I'm on a jet ski and need to know at all times if a big wave is approaching so I can maneuver appropriately to avoid getting clobbered by it. But if I'm investing, I'm on a big boat and don't need to worry myself and possibly jump overboard every time the ship bobs up and down from a wave. I just need the boat to be stable enough that I don't get violently seasick from the motion. Even if the boat's size and stability slows my journey down a bit, I can be confident that I'll reach my destination eventually.
That boat analogy should be in a book!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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vincent_c wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 11:59 am If anything, I think you should be monitoring your portfolios as much as you can because if you're invested in the PP you are paying for that reduced volatility. Since you're also buying into the PP every single day you hold it a fresh evaluation of the assumptions of why you invested in it should be done on a constant basis. It may only take a moment's reflection but to ignore it is just to be ignorant and you will suffer the consequences if such risks arise and you're not prepared or cannot react fast enough.
You obviously disagree with those who wrote the books on the PP (HB,MT,and Craig). As for the reacting fast part, I remember HB did recommend paying attention when there was something extraordinary going on in the economy.

I do agree that new PPer's should watch at the beginning when they first start out just to get a feel on how the volatility plays out. I had never done anything like this before I started the PP and was amazed to see how much volatility there can be in a single day. Apparently there a lot of portfolio watchers reacting fast to economic events. Eventually I got bored and put it mostly on auto-pilot.
Last edited by pp4me on Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird »

buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird »

buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
Ok good for you.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird »

buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:33 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:16 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:04 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:55 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:01 pm Notice how gold and LTT’s just go lower even with stocks falling. This is not new to anyone.
Stocks are falling all day, what a crap, -0.88% already. This is dog shit, man. Total joke.
:)
S&P still up 21% YTD
Gold and LTT’s NEGATIVE YTD by a lot.
S&P is -0.94% today and keeps going down! :P
Still up 21%. I’d be more worried about your gold and bonds foo.
OK. So be worried.
I'm not :-)
Ok good for you.
Invest in crypto. There will be plenty of days to pull the hair out. :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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Cortopassi wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 1:09 pm That boat analogy should be in a book!
Or maybe like, a gyroscope! O0
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew »

So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird »

buddtholomew wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi »

Ugly_Bird wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
Nah. Where' MJ? Stocks always come back. Time to buy! :D

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Last edited by Cortopassi on Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise »

Gold's response to today's stock dip may be muted thus far, but I'm happy that the PP overall is down only -0.2% even though stocks are down -2.7%. Makes the stock drama less panicky.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird »

Cortopassi wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:42 pm
Ugly_Bird wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:32 pm
buddtholomew wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 1:20 pm So pathetic, market down 1000 and this piece of crap up .5%..waste of space and time.
Uncorrelated assets...
You should have sold stocks last Friday :)
Nah. Where' MJ? Stocks always come back. Time to buy! :D
Right! Sold last Friday bought today or... maybe tomorrow? Or the day after? Just need to keep the crystal ball crystal clear :P
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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Xan wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:24 pm Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
Déjà vu...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow »

While it appears that crypto is not yet ready for primetime as a safe haven (as the talking heads are pointing out), I am satisfied with gold’s performance today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

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Ugly_Bird wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:38 pm
Xan wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 2:24 pm Budd has requested a temporary ban, so he'll be taking a break from posting for a while.
Déjà vu...
Electronic lap-band surgery
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