The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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SomeDude
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by SomeDude » Wed Jun 16, 2021 6:23 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 3:37 pm
HAHA, what a piece of crap..buy, buy, buy.

There’s nothing anyone can say on this board that convinces me Gold is worth anything. I feel the same way about the PP - a cowards portfolio that amounts to nothing. What a joke and a waste of time.
How about some platinum? Mmmmm......only 60% the cost of gold and infinitely rarer above ground. It's denser and ohhhh so noble.

Not as pretty though.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:55 am

Tortoise wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:07 pm
What happened to the Budd from last December?
Yet another Mathjak type, expecting the PP to be the end-all be-all of investing portfolios, waffling back and forth on their feelings about the PP in the space of just a few months, spending their time on the forums blabbering on and on without providing one iota of anything meaningful to the discussions. All we can do is point out their past statements/inconsistencies. Maybe they'll eventually understand they don't know anything about the future of markets, just like the rest of us.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:06 am

dockinGA wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:55 am
Tortoise wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:07 pm
What happened to the Budd from last December?
Yet another Mathjak type, expecting the PP to be the end-all be-all of investing portfolios, waffling back and forth on their feelings about the PP in the space of just a few months, spending their time on the forums blabbering on and on without providing one iota of anything meaningful to the discussions. All we can do is point out their past statements/inconsistencies. Maybe they'll eventually understand they don't know anything about the future of markets, just like the rest of us.
It’s down almost 3% this morning.
Take a look at my post responding to Tortoise and let me know whether you still feel the same way about me not adding anything “meaningful to discussions”. I explain my personal reasoning.
Last edited by buddtholomew on Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
dockinGA
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:34 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 16, 2021 4:56 pm
Scenarios similar to March 2020 unfold with irregularity and in-between the PP investor relinquishes too much in equity gains to make 4x25 worthwhile.

The PP would still be treading water today if I hadn’t violated 15/35 bands and increased stock exposure near the March bottom. It was tactical asset allocation rather than the PP that accounted for the outsized gains.

At last glance I am up 80%+ in Gold LTD but have reduced exposure to the point where it no longer matters much to me. One day gold is worth something and the next day it’s worthless. I’d much rather invest in real estate as a store of value that also pays dividends than rely on the greater fool theory when it’s time to sell Au.
Scenarios like March 2020 occur every 5-10 years. You're correct, once the market recovers the PP lags against equities, but during the crash the PP doesn't lose nearly as much as equities. At the end of the day, perhaps equities ends up with a higher return, but that's not guaranteed (if it was guaranteed there would be no risk premium and hence no outperformance) and that doesn't mean that a PP can't be worthwhile considering it does a better job of preserving capital.

I'm still in the accumulation phase, but have no issue with being invested in a portfolio that is more of a capital preservation approach as opposed to pure returns. Crashes like 2008-9 and 2020 are prime times for people to lose their jobs. In that situation, if you're in a more heavily stock portfolio, you're suddenly having to cash out at the bottom in order to stay afloat. Perhaps your home has also lost value, and you're staring down the barrel of financial ruin because you've lost your job, investments have crashed, your crashed investments are dwindling further because you're having to tap into them to survive, your home has lost value (and maybe your mortgage is underwater) and yet you still may have to sell to make ends meet. And heaven forbid you end up with a health crisis or some other type of major emergency that piles on even further.

There are perhaps some with the intestinal fortitude to stay the course during a scenario described above, and those people will likely be rewarded at some point in the future by higher rewards. But there are many who couldn't stay the course, some who know ahead of time they won't be able to stay the course, and even for the ones who can stay the course I imagine the stress they endure during the downtimes might take years off their life and/or wreck marriages.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jswinner » Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:17 am

A PP of VTI, IAU, TLT and SHY returned over 9% between Feb 2020 and May 2021. Max drawdown was -4.55%. What is so bad about that?
Yes 100% VTI was up over 24%. But max drawdown was over 21%. Seems to be classic PP use case. And IAU is up 14.30%, with a max daily drawdown of -13.8%
The obsessive daily performance focus and postings on an individual asset class is what I consider non-productive commentary. Constructive criticism is fine, even the occasional I hate gold or TLT or whatever. To be constructive, the critiques should also include whatever the proposed "better" solution is, with the analysis as to why.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by flyingpylon » Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:17 am

So much of investing is psychological and emotional. After hanging out here for a decade or so, I've seen various posters come and go. It's apparent that some folks always need to feel like they're "winning". Like every single day. That's fine, but that mindset is not a good fit for PP-style portfolios because some "worthless" asset will always be holding them back and provoking outbursts on internet forums.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:42 pm

Oh, the horror, gold fell. Like that doesn't always happen... ;)

You may call me crazy, but my cash balance hit a rebalance point (still contributing to 401k). Which means, for my PP, I bought a crapload of TLT.

But it certainly follows the buying of the lagging asset theory. And the theory of buying stuff that your soul and the media is telling you to run away from.

Hope everyone is well.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:26 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:42 pm
Oh, the horror, gold fell. Like that doesn't always happen... ;)
Holy fuck, we're back at Revolutionary War levels, after hanging around... uh, More Recent War levels for a while!
You may call me crazy, but my cash balance hit a rebalance point (still contributing to 401k). Which means, for my PP, I bought a crapload of TLT.

But it certainly follows the buying of the lagging asset theory. And the theory of buying stuff that your soul and the media is telling you to run away from.

I've been trying out the "accumulate in cash" method, with some nibbles at the other assets if I feel like it. It's been pretty pleasant.
Hope everyone is well.
I'm amazing, thanks for asking.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:03 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 3:42 pm

Oh, the horror, gold fell. Like that doesn't always happen... ;)

You may call me crazy, but my cash balance hit a rebalance point (still contributing to 401k). Which means, for my PP, I bought a crapload of TLT.

But it certainly follows the buying of the lagging asset theory. And the theory of buying stuff that your soul and the media is telling you to run away from.

Hope everyone is well.


You are back from your self-imposed exile!

Good to see you here again!
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:39 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 8:03 pm

Good to see you here again!
Thanks, man. Not saying I am back on a daily basis, but I do occasionally lurk. I see things have "sort" of quieted down. In any event, I have spent more time reading (sci-fi usually, rereading Ringworld right now for like the fourth time) and consuming almost no news, and feel out of it, in a good way. With the weather good, I am outside as much as I can be either riding my bike or tending the landscape.

And we are starting the college visit process this summer for my younger daughter.

I did pull the trigger on working 4 days a week, been doing it for 3 weeks now. Taking a bit of effort not to look at email on my day off (Wed), but I'm getting better. All our products are currently mature and in production and we should generally be sitting back dealing with small fires, but with semiconductor lead times gone to crazy 52 weeks+ in a lot of cases, my days are filled with trying to find alternate suppliers or ways to get parts of circuits to work with different ICs, otherwise we can't build. It has not been fun!

Finally, I know this is the gold room, but I don't really want to go to the other sections -- just an IL update -- I do not have to carry a mask anywhere anymore. All stores I usually go to, and the library are mask optional. A lot of people out there are still wearing them (their right) but it literally was like flipping a switch. From masks and limited to capacity, to wide open back to normal overnight. I even have had sales people in the office three times this week, hasn't happened in over a year.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Fri Jun 18, 2021 7:23 pm

Capture.JPG
Capture.JPG (39.25 KiB) Viewed 6360 times
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Aug 08, 2021 6:31 pm

And there goes a couple months of gains in two days!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Aug 08, 2021 9:19 pm

Yea pretty wild. We're all glad that stocks have been pulling serious weight.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:09 am

Dog shit as usual
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Mon Aug 09, 2021 12:18 pm

flyingpylon wrote:
Thu Jun 17, 2021 11:17 am
So much of investing is psychological and emotional. After hanging out here for a decade or so, I've seen various posters come and go. It's apparent that some folks always need to feel like they're "winning". Like every single day. That's fine, but that mindset is not a good fit for PP-style portfolios because some "worthless" asset will always be holding them back and provoking outbursts on internet forums.
Weren't the 1980's/1990's a case of sell some shares to buy more gold only to see the price of gold decline further ... for two decades. One of the assets will always tend to be down and perhaps repeatedly declining for long periods.

Fundamentally you're rewarded for taking on risk exposure. No risk, no reward. Over the 1980/1990's whilst the price of gold declined rebalancing would have seen you accumulate multiple more ounces of gold. When that down-trend reversed so some of those accumulated ounces of gold were released to buy more stock shares/whatever.

Some say long dated treasury have only one way to go, and have been saying such for years. You could try your luck at selling completely, try and time the market, but that usually doesn't work out as expected. Selling out means having to time re-entry again, better to just hold and where one or more of the assets tends to more than offset the losses of the down asset(s) than it is to completely dump one of the assets and hope that you'll buy back in again at a appropriate time - which more often you wont.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:04 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 6:31 pm
And there goes a couple months of gains in two days!
I bought twice recently, a single ounce each time, just before the drop(s). In the long run it shouldn’t matter. I’m kind of tempted to buy one more time, but no rush.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:45 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:09 am
Dog shit as usual
Yep! It will fall during negative rates of 4 or 5%! A Fed increase move of 1/8th of a point will kill the price as fear will set in for a continued move in rates going forward. Trillions flowing around and nobody believes in this asset class! Not even foreigners with currencies wearer than the dollar.

Yep I have my 25%. But I lived through 1980 and was dancing in the streets when gold hit $843 on a London fix. Treasury rates went to 20% and gold quickly fell to $420. Woke up in 1999 and it was $259. Think of the missed money for 20 years just with a money market fund or any other investment.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Mon Aug 09, 2021 6:56 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:04 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 6:31 pm
And there goes a couple months of gains in two days!
I bought twice recently, a single ounce each time, just before the drop(s). In the long run it shouldn’t matter. I’m kind of tempted to buy one more time, but no rush.
So it's all your fault then. I thought so.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Aug 10, 2021 7:43 am

O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Thu Aug 12, 2021 1:43 pm

modeljc wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 2:45 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:09 am
Dog shit as usual

Gold acting very strong today and managed to stay even in the face of the news!

https://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive ... emocratNW/


Yep! It will fall during negative rates of 4 or 5%! A Fed increase move of 1/8th of a point will kill the price as fear will set in for a continued move in rates going forward. Trillions flowing around and nobody believes in this asset class! Not even foreigners with currencies wearer than the dollar.

Yep I have my 25%. But I lived through 1980 and was dancing in the streets when gold hit $843 on a London fix. Treasury rates went to 20% and gold quickly fell to $420. Woke up in 1999 and it was $259. Think of the missed money for 20 years just with a money market fund or any other investment.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by PP67 » Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:47 am

Per Tyler's Portfolio Charts, the Ulcer Index of a 100% Gold portfolio is a PepCid Complete 47.8...

Some days/weeks/months/years it's tough to tour the sausage factory...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Fri Aug 13, 2021 11:35 am

I asked google if Gold was considered an asset class? The reply:

Gold as an asset class serves as an excellent hedge against inflation. Gold has consistently returned 2% over and above inflation for the past 28 years. Gold is also highly liquid as an asset class, because it is a global standard. This means gold can be bought and sold at any time, anywhere across the world.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 13, 2021 2:45 pm

PP67 wrote:
Fri Aug 13, 2021 8:47 am
Per Tyler's Portfolio Charts, the Ulcer Index of a 100% Gold portfolio is a PepCid Complete 47.8...

Some days/weeks/months/years it's tough to tour the sausage factory...
O0 Yeah, all gold is a diet of onions and ghost peppers, requiring Pepcid.
The pp is like a diet of miso soup, totally alkaline.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:54 am

Gold is a terrible investment vs stocks, but this tweet from Sowell makes me think about gold as savings.

https://twitter.com/ThomasSowell/status ... 61670?s=20
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 09, 2021 1:34 pm

p.s. looks like Vinny retweeted it.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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