The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mathjak107
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 09, 2020 10:30 am

i agree . i added a bit today to bring it back up the 10k it fell .
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:49 am

dw260307 wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:01 am
i would like to know gold has a chance to cross 1900 this year or not ?

The future is unpredictable. That said a lot of the expensive suits on Wall Street remain bullish on gold. And FTR I tend to agree. I certainly like gold more than bonds. Citigroup recently predicted $2500/oz for 2021. I'm not a fan of these price targets which strike me as the financial equivalent to tarot cards, but in general I do see a case for higher gold.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/gold-to ... -2021.html


[P.S. Bitcoin is highly speculative and is not a substitute for gold in the PP. I don't care for it but some people do. Just understand that it is a gamble and as such should not be a part of a permanent portfolio.]
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:07 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 11:49 am
dw260307 wrote:
Wed Nov 25, 2020 2:01 am
i would like to know gold has a chance to cross 1900 this year or not ?

The future is unpredictable. That said a lot of the expensive suits on Wall Street remain bullish on gold. And FTR I tend to agree. I certainly like gold more than bonds. Citigroup recently predicted $2500/oz for 2021. I'm not a fan of these price targets which strike me as the financial equivalent to tarot cards, but in general I do see a case for higher gold.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/gold-to ... -2021.html


[P.S. Bitcoin is highly speculative and is not a substitute for gold in the PP. I don't care for it but some people do. Just understand that it is a gamble and as such should not be a part of a permanent portfolio.]
Remember all the way back in July 2020, when everybody was talking about how gold was THE asset and Bitcoin was old news? How quickly that narrative reversed, huh? I think gold will be fine, especially if you look back historically at the length of a typical gold bull market. We are well within the norm of a pullback/consolidation before another crazy move up.

I don't know whether Bitcoin will stay a relevant asset or not. I can make a logical argument for and against. I don't see anything wrong with a VP moonshot speculative kind of bet on Bitcoin. But I definitely wouldn't say it was anywhere close to proven enough at this point for discussion about inclusion in the PP. I also would not be buying Bitcoin today.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Nov 25, 2020 12:11 pm

Bitcoin in the PP? I'm going to need a more established track record showing it's long term performance as an accepted store of value. Get back to me in 6000 years or so and we can talk about it.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Thu Nov 26, 2020 4:31 pm

Bitcoin was down 1700 bucks today
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Nov 27, 2020 11:52 am

Bought some IAU at 17.04 today to restore AA.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am

Nice to see gold moving in the other direction from stocks today, i.e. up. +US$50
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am
Nice to see gold moving in the other direction from stocks today, i.e. up. +US$50
Not exactly a bitcoin return, but we'll take it, right?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:52 pm

Don wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:04 pm
dualstow wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:13 am
Nice to see gold moving in the other direction from stocks today, i.e. up. +US$50
Not exactly a bitcoin return, but we'll take it, right?
Right. I'm truly happy for bitcoin holders (and TSLA holders) but I continue to be impressed with the pp. It's not exciting to hold the four assets, but it's working.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Jan 04, 2021 1:58 pm

Stoncks fell and gold rose. Talk about gyroscopic!
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:59 pm

Bitcoin sell-off = Gold’s benefit
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon Jan 04, 2021 4:31 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Jan 04, 2021 2:59 pm
Bitcoin sell-off = Gold’s benefit
Good point. That should happen sometimes this year.
Depends when BTC drops 70-80%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:50 pm

Gold is down 4-frickin-%.
Might have to buy some this month.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:21 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:50 pm
Gold is down 4-frickin-%.
Might have to buy some this month.
Might make 2% a year for 10 years. I got 28% of it and it't not going to do much for us unless we get lucky.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:56 pm

Buy the dip.

However, I don't need the money for a few years, I have way too much cash already, and I'm full up with stocks, bonds, BITCOIN, miners, silver... so gold it is. I guess if I had a hole elsewhere in my allocation I might not be buying gold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Sun Jan 10, 2021 10:50 am

ochotona wrote:
Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:56 pm
Buy the dip.

However, I don't need the money for a few years, I have way too much cash already, and I'm full up with stocks, bonds, BITCOIN, miners, silver... so gold it is. I guess if I had a hole elsewhere in my allocation I might not be buying gold.
Since 2004 when GLD came out it has done +9%. Maybe we are OK? I had it since 1972 and I tell others that this is not a fun ride.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 10, 2021 11:27 am

modeljc wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 1:21 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Jan 08, 2021 12:50 pm
Gold is down 4-frickin-%.
Might have to buy some this month.
Might make 2% a year for 10 years. I got 28% of it and it't not going to do much for us unless we get lucky.
I’ll keep beating the drum: gold is part of a package.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:11 pm

Crazy how a gold rally in the morning ended up down by the close
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:22 pm

2nd day in a row...sold some IAU @ 17.79 this morning - bird in the hand and all...was 40/15/0/45 and now 35/12.5/0/52.5 stocks/gold/bonds/cash.

Been reducing allocation to stocks for several weeks now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Jan 29, 2021 3:39 pm

Same , I am very close to 100% pp which is rare for me as well as an almost 50% cash position ...but I don’t like what I am seeing ..better safe than sorry. Although with the pounding gold and tlt have been getting I am not sure if anything is going to hold up well
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by SomeDude » Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:13 am

Only buy gold when it's cheap and you'll always be happy.

I define cheap as:

GSR under 70

S&P to gold over 1.7

Both are true right now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Mon Feb 01, 2021 9:07 am

SomeDude wrote:
Sun Jan 31, 2021 10:13 am
GSR under 70
Oooops! :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Vil » Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:12 pm

GLD is now below the 10 month MA too (SMA200 it already passed). The ones that rebalance to cash in such conditions - will you do so now or will you wait for the "Last kiss" pattern to form ? ;D Just asking out of curiosity ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:38 pm

Vil wrote:
Tue Feb 02, 2021 1:12 pm
GLD is now below the 10 month MA too (SMA200 it already passed). The ones that rebalance to cash in such conditions - will you do so now or will you wait for the "Last kiss" pattern to form ? ;D Just asking out of curiosity ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Feb 02, 2021 2:46 pm

Just in case all you "dumb" money people forgot, there is nothing that ever goes up all the time, except stocks! Screw this pp thing. I am going 100% stocks! :P

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