The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:33 am

Down this morning but thinking this may be the low for the day.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:32 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:33 am
Down this morning but thinking this may be the low for the day.
No comments over a few last days? :-)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 21, 2019 9:23 am

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 21, 2019 11:46 am

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:22 pm

Nice it is holding above $1300. But whatever. Good year so far for stocks. I do find it hard to believe the current 14% up YTD for S&P 500 will be sustained, but who knows, that's why we own some.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jacksonM » Thu Mar 21, 2019 4:54 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Mar 21, 2019 3:22 pm
Nice it is holding above $1300. But whatever. Good year so far for stocks. I do find it hard to believe the current 14% up YTD for S&P 500 will be sustained, but who knows, that's why we own some.
I don't find it hard to believe having experienced it before when it wasn't expected. That's why I just sit back and let the PP do it's thing and try not to think about it too much.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:20 am

So precious...no one wants the garbage
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:32 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:20 am
So precious...no one wants the garbage
Yep! Time to buy. :P
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:44 am

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:32 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:20 am
So precious...no one wants the garbage
Yep! Time to buy. :P
Should have sold more
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:07 am

I just bought more this morning :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:17 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:44 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:32 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:20 am
So precious...no one wants the garbage
Yep! Time to buy. :P
Should have sold more
Yesterday... :-)
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Mar 28, 2019 3:06 pm

Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 12:17 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:44 am
Ugly_Bird wrote:
Thu Mar 28, 2019 10:32 am


Yep! Time to buy. :P
Should have sold more
Yesterday... :-)
At least we’re not holding Palladium.
Wasn’t there some talk about Putin cornering the market?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Mar 28, 2019 4:33 pm

Bought some iau for rebalancing out of cash. Could not bring myself to do it earlier in the week with everything up.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Thu Mar 28, 2019 9:07 pm

Here is a short column on gold and a very conservative portfolio by a guy who is not a shill for some gold dealer.

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/the-10 ... heir-heads#
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:28 pm

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:59 am

Oh, yeah, that truck has been overloaded for years. Backed up so much, can't get into drive. ::)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:15 pm

Did we ever have a poll about whether you think gold is losing investors to cryptocurrency? There is a thread with almost those exact words (change to "..to Bitcoin). {Edit: or maybe I'm thinking of the opposite?}

There are various opinions about whether crypto *deserves* gold's customers. Still, I wonder if a lot of market share is lost with regard to millennials who would have bought gold if crypto hadn't existed. I don't know.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 04, 2019 2:07 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 12:15 pm
Did we ever have a poll about whether you think gold is losing investors to cryptocurrency? There is a thread with almost those exact words (change to "..to Bitcoin). {Edit: or maybe I'm thinking of the opposite?}

There are various opinions about whether crypto *deserves* gold's customers. Still, I wonder if a lot of market share is lost with regard to millennials who would have bought gold if crypto hadn't existed. I don't know.
I personally don't think that most crypto investors would have otherwise been gold investors. Crypto-bugs generally tend to be tech-bugs. I think the tech aspect of it is generally what attracts them to it. I work in the tech industry, and the people I come across that are big into crypto wouldn't invest in gold if crypto didn't exist. It's more of a bet on what the future will be. Gold is viewed by them as being the past and is not attractive because of that. FWIW, the people that I know that are crypto-bugs are also pot stock bugs, FAANG stock bugs, Tesla bugs, and pretty much just chase all the fads. I think gold really is and always will be the epitome of the anti-fad asset. So I don't personally think that crypto has stolen any real sunshine away from gold. I think the dollar has stolen a lot of golds sunshine in recent years. Also, in the early 2010's gold was a really overbought bubble and like any overbought bubble it needed to pull back and cool off for a few years.

On a side note, gold has a promising high volume reversal day today going on. IAU literally touched the support line at exactly 12.25 and then shot up from there. The bulls stepped up and defended the line right where they should have with above average volume, that's a promising sign that we may be just consolidating and forming a constructive bottom to start a new leg up from in the coming weeks. We will have to wait and see.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 04, 2019 3:32 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Apr 04, 2019 7:59 am
Oh, yeah, that truck has been overloaded for years. Backed up so much, can't get into drive. ::)
Driveshaft broke, laying on the ground.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:20 am

@pmward : makes sense, thanks.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:51 pm

I'm still interested in buying more gold on dips. This MMT discussion, Medicare for All, trillion dollar deficits hint that I might like more than my current 11.4% gold.

Sven Henrich uses the daily, weekly, or monthly 5 period exponential moving average (5EMA) as a way to determine if prices are abnormally high or low in the short term. If the candle bar completely detaches from the 5EMA line, then it's a temporary high or low, it will eventually touch the line again.

If you look at the monthly 5EMA for gold the last five years, it picks the dips pretty well when the candles disconnect downward. The lower bound of the "commodity channel" indicator available on Schwab charts works in a similar manner, and picks the same lows as 5EMA.

5EMA is more rules-based, less guessing.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:59 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:51 pm
I'm still interested in buying more gold on dips. This MMT discussion, Medicare for All, trillion dollar deficits hint that I might like more than my current 11.4% gold.
I'm with you.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:54 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Apr 10, 2019 8:51 pm
I'm still interested in buying more gold on dips. This MMT discussion, Medicare for All, trillion dollar deficits hint that I might like more than my current 11.4% gold.
Don't forget that the Fed is also on record in their minutes of considering negative interest rates in the next downturn, and if that happens gold will benefit as well. The Fed has slowly been painting themselves into a corner over the last 10 years, eventually at some point in the future the public is going to catch on to that fact. I'm happy with my 20% allocation, especially since gold has been out of favor and consolidating for 8 years now. With a consolidation period that long (and still going), when it does eventually break out, boy is it going to break out! It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:59 am

Think gold is useless because you can't eat it? I'm long Goldschläger.

COME AT ME NOW BOGLEHEADS
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 11, 2019 10:14 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:59 am
Think gold is useless because you can't eat it? I'm long Goldschläger.

COME AT ME NOW BOGLEHEADS
O0
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