The GOLD scream room

[ochotona]

[buddtholomew]

I’ve sat through a decline in Gold on par with any market crash. I also had about 900K invested in 2008 so I think I qualify as living through a market crash.

I didn't say you hadn't lived through one, I said you had not been sufficiently scared by one. And 900K invested when you were 11 years younger compared to what you claim to have now is not much and not anywhere near as big of a deal psychologically.

The reason you get pushback here is because instead of simply saying "a pure PP is not for me" or "I prefer less gold and LTTs" you get on here and wail about how "the PP sucks" and "OMG gold and LTTs suck" and how people that don't see the investing world like you do are "cowards and losers".

It got old a very long time ago.

I was fleeced by the folks on this forum 10 years ago, many have long gone or switched to a heavier equity portfolio. Only when I removed myself from the PP did I realize its true colors and they are yellow. Read or don’t read my posts but I will no longer defend the PP or praise its glory in the hope that another young investor is spared the first 10 years of their investment life. It’s my life ambition.

[buddtholomew]

An alleged multi-millionaire who ridicules and goads other people's discussions and decisions is a sad piece of work. No names, of course. I'm ot sure who that would be.

You’re just bitter because you’re poor, no names of course.

[Xan]

I was fleeced by the folks on this forum 10 years ago

It's really very hard to get censured on this forum, but making false accusations against fellow members is a pretty good way to do it.

[buddtholomew]

I was fleeced by the folks on this forum 10 years ago

It's really very hard to get censured on this forum, but making false accusations against fellow members is a pretty good way to do it.

How do you know they are false?
Don’t care, ban me.
Probably the best thing you can do so that I don’t waste the rest of my investing life taking hits in Gold and LTT’s.

[Xan]

Fleece means they're taking money from you, deceptively. Have you ever sent money to anyone on this forum?

[Mark Leavy]

One of the things that I love about this forum is that it is populated by crazy smart people.

Budd doesn't post accidentally. Even his most emotional rants are clearly backed by experience and life obligations that are beyond my understanding.

Tech is one of the most honest posters I've seen. Clear about his biases, what he believes in and a level headed evaluation of all the risks and rewards he has put on the table. You can't argue with that.

Xian is a hard ass - but fair - and smarter than you and me both.

Where else can you find this quality of discussion?

[buddtholomew]

Some people just like to complain no matter how their portfolios perform.

Well then you should have a lot to complain about

I'm not one of those who likes to complain, so in fact you won't find me complaining about my portfolio at all.
Nice try though!

But if you were a complainer then no one would blame you for being 100% Au during a time when stocks have surged 100’s of percent. Good thing you’re still up on that 1 coin you bought 20 years ago.

[jacksonM]

I take it you didn’t look it up.
Coward’s Portfolio - William Bernstein?
Heard of him?

Yes, I've heard of him. I believe he wrote a preface and/or review of the most recent book on the Permanent Portfolio. Without looking it up I think he said it was a fine portfolio but the only thing he questioned was whether people would be able to stick to it during times when stocks were out performing.

[jacksonM]

Give me liberty or give me death.

[dualstow]

So attractive. Gold is like that beautiful girlfriend that-
never mind. My gf’s were always kind to me.

[Xan]

By no means does anyone have to like or use the PP in order to post here. This isn't meant to be an echo chamber.

But, as MediumTex always said, this should be a place that doesn't raise anyone's blood pressure. There's no need for name-calling or for ridiculing each other's perspective or choices.

One thing that's certainly necessary in order for there to be civil conversation is the assumption that everyone is acting in good faith until proven otherwise. There has been an unfounded accusation leveled against "the folks on this forum" by a poster who has previously run off other posters with his invective. This is the kind of thing that makes a pleasant corner of the Internet turn unpleasant.

As flyingpylon pointed out, alternative viewpoints on Gold/LTTs (or anything, really) are welcome, as long as it's recognized that they are just that: viewpoints, and that others may disagree, and that doesn't make them cowards or losers.

Really, everyone involved in anything approaching an altercation needs to help de-escalate rather than escalate. Try to dial down the invective rather than dial it up. Otherwise this place will fall apart.

Budd, would you please apologize to anyone you may have called a coward, and withdraw your accusation of having been "fleeced" by members of this forum?

[jacksonM]

Budd, would you please apologize to anyone you may have called a coward, and withdraw your accusation of having been "fleeced" by members of this forum?

I think he adequately explained what he meant by a "coward's portfolio" so no offense taken there. The claim of being "fleeced" does seem a bit harder to defend however.

[buddtholomew]

It was never my intent to label anyone a “coward” and I tried to explain my position on that comment. A lazy portfolio doesn’t make anyone lazy just as a SWAN portfolio doesn’t ensure you will have a good night sleep.

“Fleeced” by the Webster’s definition does suggest stealing money and was a poor choice of words on my behalf. For that I apologize.

If you want the truth, I do feel let down by those fellow PP investors that praised the portfolio for its agnostic nature, only to find out later that they never held 4x25 but some customized variation thereof. All the while I stuck to 4x25 and as you know it hasn’t been that great.

There is very little that I have witnessed watching the 4 assets daily and looking at the portfolio over a decade that suggests there is anything “magical” about 4x25 and being agnostic about the future. It’s good to diversify, but not at the cost of realizing enough gains to reach your goals that only will come with a higher stock allocation. Of course savings rate and managing lifestyle creep are as important.

I am now at 32/15/15/38 and will move to 35/15/15/35 during the next stock decline. Hopefully this allocation will have me praising the PP again.

[Xan]

Budd, that's fair enough. That's a position that may not be popular here, but is certainly understandable, and contrary views really are welcome. Funny how a misunderstanding about a single word can cause such trouble!

Can we please try to keep things civil in the future? That goes for everyone... Budd is as entitled to his opinion as anyone, and what seems to set him off (and yes, he should be MUCH better about this) is someone telling him that his positions are wrong/immature/closed-minded/whatever. I wouldn't like that very much either.

As I said before, when you (that is, anyone) find your dander up, please resist the temptation to escalate and instead try to de-escalate.

[Libertarian666]

One of the things that I love about this forum is that it is populated by crazy smart people.

Budd doesn't post accidentally. Even his most emotional rants are clearly backed by experience and life obligations that are beyond my understanding.

Tech is one of the most honest posters I've seen. Clear about his biases, what he believes in and a level headed evaluation of all the risks and rewards he has put on the table. You can't argue with that.

Xian is a hard ass - but fair - and smarter than you and me both.

Where else can you find this quality of discussion?

I'm assuming you mean people who are "crazy smart", not crazy people who are also smart?

But in any event, thanks for the compliment!

[Libertarian666]

Give me liberty or give me death.

Beautiful, but I prefer the UHR version:

(I have one but not this specific one.)

[flyingpylon]

It’s good to diversify, but not at the cost of realizing enough gains to reach your goals that only will come with a higher stock allocation.

I am quoting Budd here to illustrate a point, but my comments are not specifically about or directed toward him.

Something I have noticed over the years is that so-called lazy portfolios simply do not resonate with some people. Although they may be very intelligent and understand them on the surface, they can't internalize them and truly accept what it is they are designed to do. Discussions with them can be difficult (particularly when emotions are running high) because they are coming from a fundamentally different place. They aren't "wrong", just different.

In my observation, these same folks often view life as a competition, with winners and losers. A large part of their self-worth and their satisfaction with life is tied to "winning", not just in the long run but (and this is key) on a regular basis. And what better way to quantify that than with numbers, dollars, % gains, etc.? At a very basic level, nothing else makes sense to them. Unfortunately, that's where a lazy portfolio fails them and leads to feelings of "losing" or being victimized by bad advice because the portfolio did not "perform" within the time frame of their expectations.

My point about Budd's comment (which is similar to those posted by others in the past) is that it seems to presume that everyone's goals are in some way tied to financial performance. Now obviously, given the world we live in, financial performance matters to a degree. But not everyone has the same goals, and financial performance may or may not be at the top of the list.

As I get older and think about my own goals, they are much more in line with this poem by Czeslaw Milosz that I saw recently than with "hitting a number".

GIFT

A day so happy.

Fog lifted early, I worked in the garden.

Hummingbirds were stopping over honeysuckle flowers.

There was no thing on earth I wanted to possess.

I knew no one worth my envying him.

Whatever evil I had suffered, I forgot.

To think that once I was the same man did not embarrass me.

In my body I felt no pain.

When straightening up, I saw the blue sea and sails.

Berkeley, 1971

That might sound all naive and sappy to some people, and that's okay. But the point is that a "higher stock allocation" isn't really what's going to get me there. There are people with a lot of money that don't have that kind of peace, and people with virtually no money that do.

Different people just want different things, and it seems like where we run into the most trouble around here is when one side or both assume that their goals are more universally shared than they actually are.

[pmward]

I agree. I think that some people just need to have a VP. If someone is the type that they watch the markets on a day to day basis, they are probably the type that needs to at least have some allocation that is discretionary. Also, if someone is a big time stock bug, then I don't think it's a bad thing to overweight stocks a bit. It's essentially the same thing. It may win in the long run, it also may lose in the long run, but at least someone's portfolio has some bias towards that persons unique convictions. I think at the end of the day we all want to sleep well at night, and for some people they need to have a little more risk and/or feel a bit more in control to sleep at night.

[dualstow]

Nice poem, fp.

Beautiful, but I prefer the UHR version:

Code: Select all

https://apmex.exceda.com/images/Catalog%20Images/Products/50994_Slab.jpg?v=20160812050906&width=900&height=900 

(I have one but not this specific one.)

Do you buy fractional coins, Libertarian666 and if so, for what reason?

[ochotona]

No flight to gold today! Bonds getting bid, though.

[Tyler]

That might sound all naive and sappy to some people, and that's okay. But the point is that a "higher stock allocation" isn't really what's going to get me there. There are people with a lot of money that don't have that kind of peace, and people with virtually no money that do.

Different people just want different things, and it seems like where we run into the most trouble around here is when one side or both assume that their goals are more universally shared than they actually are.

This entire post is gold, Flyingpylon.

I know I'm probably a broken record on this, but I'll just add that at some point one's happiness with their investments is really not about asset allocation but about their personal relationship with money. Some relationships are fundamentally healthy, and some are not. Don't blame your portfolio for your pain when the root cause is likely so much deeper. Fix the thing causing you to look to your investments for relief (the job you hate, the debt that keeps you awake, etc.), and the daily gyrations of your portfolio will no longer cause you so much grief.

[Libertarian666]

Nice poem, fp.

Beautiful, but I prefer the UHR version:

Code: Select all

https://apmex.exceda.com/images/Catalog%20Images/Products/50994_Slab.jpg?v=20160812050906&width=900&height=900 

(I have one but not this specific one.)

Do you buy fractional coins, Libertarian666 and if so, for what reason?

I bought some sovereigns in the 1980's because they were recognizable around the world in case of having to flee. I still have those.

I have some 1/20th "Unicorns" that I bought in the late 1990's to protect against the possibility that Y2K turned out to be bad. I still have most of those.

I have also bought some since then, when the bullion dealer I was using at the time had a sale to get rid of coins that were just lying around. I have sold off most of those but still have a few odds and ends left

[Pet Hog]

Is it just me, or does Lady Liberty resemble TJ Dillashaw?



MMIX, MMA. I think I'm onto something.

[Kriegsspiel]

UNCANNY