The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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mukramesh
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mukramesh » Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:22 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:45 pm
I love clipping these charts...
Hi Corto, how did you get peaktotrough.com to give you data for 2018? When I go to the site, it shows the last date for stocks and gold is 10/31/2017 and the last date for bonds is 12/08/2017. The site just hangs indefinitely when I try to use a date after these.
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jun 25, 2018 8:18 pm

mukramesh wrote:
Mon Jun 25, 2018 3:22 pm
Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 21, 2018 5:45 pm
I love clipping these charts...
Hi Corto, how did you get peaktotrough.com to give you data for 2018? When I go to the site, it shows the last date for stocks and gold is 10/31/2017 and the last date for bonds is 12/08/2017. The site just hangs indefinitely when I try to use a date after these.
mukramesh, Iooks like my chart has the same issue you describe, but isn't visible because of the longer date range. Darn, guess I won't be using that anymore.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am

Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Jun 27, 2018 3:12 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
Buy gold? Seriously. Who likes gold anymore? Only goes down. Market down, gold down, market up, gold down, like you recently wrote.

I would have to say this has got to be a low point in the mood to want to own gold. It has been bashed over and over again for 6 years. Relentless. So many fits and starts.

But what do I know? (I should trademark this)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:14 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
If I had over US$5MM, I *think* I’d buy four times a year. That figure represents confidence that I could support my lifestyle even at low interest rates and still have tons left over.

Since I don’t have that amount, I’m looking to buy gold at $1000 per oz, or maybe even 1100.
(I’m still within rebalancing bands, so with no new cash, I can choose to do nothing for now).
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 6:14 pm
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 8:30 am
Precious...haha
I have a lot of $ sitting at about breakeven (10-12 lots).
What would you do?
If I had over US$5MM, I *think* I’d buy four times a year. That figure represents confidence that I could support my lifestyle even at low interest rates and still have tons left over.

Since I don’t have that amount, I’m looking to buy gold at $1000 per oz, or maybe even 1100.
(I’m still within rebalancing bands, so with no new cash, I can choose to do nothing for now).
Between 1250 and 1100 is a 12% loss to existing holdings.
I want to reduce gold but then where do the proceeds go? I too can decide to do nothing or sell some for perhaps more cash. Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:45 am

You don't have a high percentage in gold. Do you really have to reduce?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:59 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm
Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
Exactly why I stopped trying to time things. Wrong way more than 50% of the time.

Look at all the gold pundits scrambling now on gold to massage their messages, maybe not 2018 but certainly 2019, blah blah. Intricate technical analysis, waves, charts, CoTs, China/India gold love trade, gold moving from west to east, all BS wrong prognostication from people who might have been right once and now think they can be right again, after being wrong for a very long time.

This is where I see comments dwindling to a fraction of what they used to be on some of these pro-gold sites. If anything, that signals to me we have reach selling exhaustion.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:01 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:45 am
You don't have a high percentage in gold. Do you really have to reduce?
I don’t have to reduce but I also don’t have to hold.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:04 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 7:59 am
buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:04 pm
Then I’m back to looking for an entry point that will most likely end up being higher than when I sell.
Exactly why I stopped trying to time things. Wrong way more than 50% of the time.

Look at all the gold pundits scrambling now on gold to massage their messages, maybe not 2018 but certainly 2019, blah blah. Intricate technical analysis, waves, charts, CoTs, China/India gold love trade, gold moving from west to east, all BS wrong prognostication from people who might have been right once and now think they can be right again, after being wrong for a very long time.

This is where I see comments dwindling to a fraction of what they used to be on some of these pro-gold sites. If anything, that signals to me we have reach selling exhaustion.
It looks to me like the reflation story has stalled and therefore the momentum for gold as well. Just add my opinion to the mix.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Thu Jun 28, 2018 3:07 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 2:04 pm
It looks to me like the reflation story has stalled and therefore the momentum for gold as well. Just add my opinion to the mix.
It sure seems that way.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:09 am

Dollar -.72%, Gold +.25%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by modeljc » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:20 am

I don't think any asset class likes higher interest rates.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:34 am

modeljc wrote:
Fri Jun 29, 2018 10:20 am
I don't think any asset class likes higher interest rates.
Except cash, enjoying a cool 2%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:08 pm

So awesome!
Puke
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:26 pm

$1220, $1200 here we come
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:11 pm

We are rapidly approaching my PP low point for the year, which last occurred 5/1/2018. Quite a waste of 6+ months of time so far.

We all know by now when gold gets on a roll lower, usually always goes further than one thinks it will.

Sigh...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:20 am

Nope, back up to $1250 this morning. Oh well!

If prices drop again, this might be a good time to dig up those gold receipts from several years ago when you were buying at $1600+, and tax loss harvest your coins or gold bullion shares in taxable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:01 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:11 pm
We are rapidly approaching my PP low point for the year, which last occurred 5/1/2018. Quite a waste of 6+ months of time so far.

We all know by now when gold gets on a roll lower, usually always goes further than one thinks it will.

Sigh...
Cortopassi...

I suggest spending a bit of time on the Bogleheads or MMM forums where posters often claim that they'd "love" for assets (they're almost always talking exclusively about stocks) to be "on sale" during their accumulation phase because they can then buy more shares.

It's really no different for PP assets. Better to be buying those dips in 2015 and 2016 than investing at other times. You, of course, know this. I am just offering a friendly reminder. Assuming you believe that a balanced approach will help you reach your financial goals on your timeline, I wouldn't worry much about a mediocre six months.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:08 am

sophie wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:20 am
Nope, back up to $1250 this morning. Oh well!

If prices drop again, this might be a good time to dig up those gold receipts from several years ago when you were buying at $1600+, and tax loss harvest your coins or gold bullion shares in taxable.
So... if you have a capital GAIN on bullion, you get to pay the Collectibles tax >:(

If you have a capital LOSS on bullion, do you get the enjoy the Collectibles tax rate in reverse, or do they only apply the ball and chain when you're winning? :-[
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:29 am

This poor forum is like a support group.
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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:55 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:29 am
This poor forum is like a support group.
We're all addicts, and we hate our habit and our pusher ;)

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:10 am

ochotona wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:08 am
sophie wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:20 am
Nope, back up to $1250 this morning. Oh well!

If prices drop again, this might be a good time to dig up those gold receipts from several years ago when you were buying at $1600+, and tax loss harvest your coins or gold bullion shares in taxable.
So... if you have a capital GAIN on bullion, you get to pay the Collectibles tax >:(

If you have a capital LOSS on bullion, do you get the enjoy the Collectibles tax rate in reverse, or do they only apply the ball and chain when you're winning? :-[
It's treated like any other capital loss, where it can offset a capital gain somewhere else, or if there is none, can offset $3,000 (IIRC) per year of earned income.

So if you have a gain in a different collectible, you can get the "collectible rate" as your loss. Similarly, since your collectible rate is never higher than your earned income tax rate, the $3,000 offset per year is always at least as good as the collectable rate.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:56 am

dualstow wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:29 am
This poor forum is like a support group.
Yeah...

Barrett,

It's not the 6 months. Like Budd (and mathjak) expound on, gold has been tedious to watch and own for 7 years. Part of me still regrets ever buying that first coin in 2008. Except for a couple blips in the past 2 years, my gold holdings in aggregate have been underwater for 7 years.

People who continue to talk about it being on sale, back up the truck, etc. there's only so much I can take till I tune them all out. I am sticking with the PP because I know gold will have its day and hopefully I will be able to rebalance some gains out of it, but I certainly see the other side where a lot of gains for nearly the past decade are lost because of holding it vs. stocks.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Jul 04, 2018 7:50 am

Cortopassi wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:56 am
dualstow wrote:
Tue Jul 03, 2018 10:29 am
This poor forum is like a support group.
Yeah...

Barrett,

It's not the 6 months. Like Budd (and mathjak) expound on, gold has been tedious to watch and own for 7 years. Part of me still regrets ever buying that first coin in 2008. Except for a couple blips in the past 2 years, my gold holdings in aggregate have been underwater for 7 years.

People who continue to talk about it being on sale, back up the truck, etc. there's only so much I can take till I tune them all out. I am sticking with the PP because I know gold will have its day and hopefully I will be able to rebalance some gains out of it, but I certainly see the other side where a lot of gains for nearly the past decade are lost because of holding it vs. stocks.

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Sorry Cortopassi, I know how you feel...
I wonder if there is another asset that has performed as poorly in the entire world over that timeframe.
Not a joke!
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