The GOLD scream room

[mathjak107]

the golden butterfly as i mentioned was a bridge through the elections . most of that was sold off when small caps faltered . i was up like 25k in small caps and 15k evaporated so gold and tlt had a nice run back so i started moving the money back in to the insight models as the gb served its purpose .
i realized that with this kind of volatility in the individual components if i don't take the gains when they are there they evaporate all to quickly .

i took the remaining 10k profit left in small caps and started moving back to the insight models ..

i was going to put the money back in to the gb as assets came lower and hold a certain percentage in the gb but after thinking about it i saw no reason to going forward . . the components make great trading vehicles for the fun money so i decided to keep it that way . the insight models stay as is and the gb is the variable fun part as i always trade TLT AND GLD anyway .

except for GLD i have no other fun money in as of now .

[mathjak107]

lets see if this is better . i figured out how to scan it as a jpg instead of pdf so i redid it .

from the looks of it it is a lot better . i can upload full resolution photos to our photography website so the jpg worked much better .

[Cortopassi]

mj,

That you try to time gold, which to me is one of the most unpredictable assets, is so far removed from most thinking on this forum!

I want to ask for your historical analysis of what you did in 2011-13. Not to try and corner you into saying, yeah, I still am holding GLD from the 1900 peak, I just haven't realized the loss, but more so if you are actually able to time in's and out's profitably, I am interested in how you approach it. NOT that I will ever do it again.

There are so many sharp peaks and valleys during those years, esp. 2011, that I just cannot imagine you winning all the time, and either getting stuck or stopped out. Do you use stop losses for when you pick the direction wrong? 2013 overall was down the entire year. Did you just not trade?

For example, did you do anything during the peaks I circled, which spanned $200-300 over the course of 2 months?

[mathjak107]

i dabbled a bit in 2011-2013 . basically stayed in just the models . i did nothing special in gld . i had no reason to go outside . gains in the models were double digits . this year was my biggest gains in gold ever .

we had sold two co-ops in 2008 so the money got in close to the lows in the insight models and was doing very well since then . we still had a big real estate holding i was more involved in over those years .

it is when markets are flat i attempted to goose things along , and when markets are flat tlt and gld are good canditates .

i just take more interest in gld and tlt at times more than other times .

it sure would have been nice to ride the gold wave fully up back then but not something i did . but my portfolio's did very well so i can't complain .

i find gold easy to time if you go for quick hits .

every time something causes gold to go up just a percent or 2 it always rolls back even if a day . as my record shows i found 27 opportunies to do that since jan . i don't worry about buying gold like i did the other day . there will always be some event that will spike it and i can sell . it may be an hour , it may be a day , but there always seems to be a moment you can profit .

it is when you hang in their longer that things get very random and that gain can evaporate in a day . you can ride a nice gain up and back in days . in fact that 26k gain is now down about 16k since i sold .

[dualstow]

It's legible now, thanks.

[mathjak107]

last year i found oil stocks easy to do these quick hits on . kmi was my favorite . it traded in and out of that and exxon so many times . but since last year the volatility in kmi is gone and the fear that every oil company was going under vanished . i found high yield the low hanging friut last year too racking up 16% gains .

the markets priced high yield like 1/2 the companies were failing . it was really low hanging fruit .

so not all times can you get the opportunity to hit and run on the same stocks . but it satisfies the tinkerer in me ..

[dualstow]

It's funny, I hold many of the stocks in your list: KO, CVX, VZ; used to hold PFE & SPHIX. I usually don't sell, period, unless I have a very compelling reason. It's like a homemade Wellesley fund.

[mathjak107]

i tried taking a quick hit with the puppies of the dow. the 5 highest yielding dogs . they started to falter so they spiked and i got out quick . glad i did , it fell thousands today .

sphix was just left over from last year . i never got around to selling a tiny piece . high yield was hot , i used sphix and hyg

[dualstow]

Today's Saturday.

[Cortopassi]

Do you have stop losses, or just are amazingly prescient and never time things wrong?

The more I read your responses, the more it sounds like gold bloggers who always can massage their message to always show themselves being right.

No matter, you're just another guy better at this than me, and I am fine with that.

[mathjak107]

i don't use stop losses . you can get to badly burned . these market opening flash crashes we see can sell you out way lower only to recover later .

i allow just a few percent on stocks to the downside . if they don't flip in a matter of days they are gone .

gold and tlt are the only things i will wait out , i know at some point something will spike it even for a day so i can sell out if i want.

the statement speaks for the track record . you can see loses are kept very low while gains can go pretty high . it is just a lot of trading and waiting with some things if they dip after i buy .. i don't have a problem waiting with funds as they will likely always run back up . but individual stocks may never come back so i am very careful with the losses and limit those losses whether i am right or wrong and the stock rebounds . not worth the risk to hang on to individual stocks for the short term.

[escafandro]

MJ, sorry for getting in, and maybe it's my south american paranoia talking, but why the hell do you post your winnings with real numbers in a public forum?
What do you need to prove to whom?
Just be a little less cocky in your comments and nobody is going to feel motivated to expose you.

[mathjak107]

Libertarian666 thought i was holding back the losses. So there is my proof. I have no problem discussing numbers where warranted

[mathjak107]

MJ, sorry for getting in, and maybe it's my south american paranoia talking, but why the hell do you post your winnings with real numbers in a public forum?
What do you need to prove to whom?
Just be a little less cocky in your comments and nobody is going to feel motivated to expose you.

it always amazes me that folks will talk about their illicit affairs on line with strangers or share personal bits of information like their sexual dysfunction on line in forums yet what their finances are have to be hush hush .

i have to tell you , many years ago money magazine wanted to do a feature story on us since i do all my own planning . they wanted to pit their team of pro's against my plans .

at first my wife and i said hell no , we don't want our info put in print for millions to see .

but then we thought about it . why not we asked ourselves ?

were long lost relatives going to hit us up for money ? nooooooooo

was i going to get kidnapped ? not likely and odds are they would pay my wife to take me back i am so needy .

were we living a lie and a lifestyle we couldn't afford and we didn't want anyone to know ? nooooo

were we proud of our accomplishments ? yes

were charities going to call ? maybe .

in the end we could not find one reason not to do the article , so we did and not only did 8 million people read about our finances but the article stayed on cnn's money website in the archives for a decade .

on top of that someone at fidelity read it , saw we used 100% fidelity funds and they featured us in fidelity investment magazine for millions of others to see .

so today i have no reservations about talking actual numbers , whether the numbers are good or bad , in a discussion that warrants it .

you really have to think about why we can talk about our sexual dysfunction in forums but discussing your money in appropriate places is hush .

[dualstow]

was i going to get kidnapped ? not likely and odds are they would pay my wife to take me back i am so needy .

Like the O.Henry story.

I do worry about that. My father in law is a bit of a boaster, a Chinese in China. I can never show him my gold coins or even tell him of their existence.

[mathjak107]

yep . look up needy , my picture comes up lol . they will return me .

[Cortopassi]

mj,

If you have a link or way to get us access to the article you did, I'd love to read it.

[mathjak107]

it was march or feb 2006 i believe but cnn finally took it down .if you can find the issue it is called the jouney to retirement

[escafandro]

you really have to think about why we can talk about our sexual dysfunction in forums but discussing your money in appropriate places is hush .

No one is going to track you down to kidnap or defraud you because you have sexual dysfunction.
Yes of course, safety is the main reason. I work in the artistic field, avoid prejudice is another good reason too
It is not an ideological issue. I just do not see that the cost-benefit ratio is worth it.

[mathjak107]

it is silly logic and for most discussing finances when appropriate is just fine . it is done all the time on very popular financial forums .

in fact most of the time anyone you know personally will never see what you discuss on line in appropriate forums .

i can tell you out of about 15 million people who read the article we did either in the magazine or when it was on line , no one we knew ever saw it and i ran in to one person on another forum who remembered reading it ..

[Libertarian666]

Libertarian666 thought i was holding back the losses. So there is my proof. I have no problem discussing numbers where warranted

Thanks.

Personally, I don't trade anything. I've tried that in the past and gotten burned, so I just buy and hold until I have a better use for the money.

Since you were so forthcoming with your financial situation, I guess I should reciprocate in the name of fairness, so here goes.

This year I was prompted to sell CEF because I didn't want to deal with Sprott.

That created a big loss, because I had sold and rebought it in 2012 at much higher prices to reset the tax basis.

So I took advantage of that to sell some gold that I've been holding since 1998 or 1999 and had a big gain on, to wipe out the loss and the gain simultaneously.

I then paid off my mortgage and kept the rest in cash so that now I have about 4 years' burn rate socked away, which means I don't have to sell anything else for quite awhile.

If my current book project doesn't result in any consulting opportunities, then I will probably look for some short-term consulting in Dallas later this year, because I don't want to run down my cash if I don't have to even though it should be safe at the rate I'm using it up.

[mathjak107]

with gold down another 6 bucks this morning this last buy won't be a fast trade in and out .

but since gold tends to run counter to stocks i don't mind holding it if i have to .

there is always something that spikes it up and as long as i can profit i will sell it . just like something always spikes it up there is always something right behind that drags it back down to buy back again relatively quick capturing the difference . that small difference can really add up .

next sell will be number 28 this year lol .

[Cortopassi]

But again, mj, that is not a good answer. I am sure there are "traders" out there who wanted to trade gold and have average buys of $1500+ and have been waiting since 2011 to regain what they are down.

You might be better at it than the average person.

But look at the latest whipping gold and silver especially has been taking. It's been nearly 3 weeks of almost relentless down down down in price.

How many traders would have looked at this on the surface, seen a week of down days take 5% off the price and go, hey, I'm getting in, it has to spike back? And then stuck for potentially a long time. And then mentally see the paper losses, and just be happy to break even when it got back close to their buy price?

I have been underwater in gold and silver since 2011. I have been waiting 6 years to see green on those holdings. Was green for a short while after Brexit last summer, and almost again at the election, but yet again, significantly red.

If I were a trader, would I buy here? Who the hell knows. It could spike to $1300 next week, or we can just as easily see the $1100s I have yet to see ANY chartist, TA person, blogger, gold bug or gold hater ever get things consistently right.

If your track record holds, then I feel better that your next sell will happen in short order and gold gets some relief.

But I wouldn't bet on it.

[mathjak107]

anything is possible and sure it can only go lower from here , but no investing is ever without risk.

the point is i just take advantage of it when i can . i hate riding things like gold back up when they happen and then leaving the carrot on the stick with just a little bit of rebalancing and then watching thousands evaporate left on the vine .. but that is me! .
if it dips then it just becomes a long term hold like yours . but at this stage the position is 1/4 of what it was .

i had a high position for the election and initial presidency . now i don't feel i need that much and my regular models are just fine .

[ochotona]

I got a few gold Buffalo coins on this last dip, they are cool! These are my first.