The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:41 pm

Pointedstick wrote:The gist of your question is, "when everything's high, what do you do?"
I think the gist of iwealth's post is that he's moving into 70% stocks.
...or is that 30% first ???
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:11 pm

dualstow wrote:
Pointedstick wrote:The gist of your question is, "when everything's high, what do you do?"
I think the gist of iwealth's post is that he's moving into 70% stocks.
...or is that 30% first ???
I think he was thinking of flipping between 70% stocks and 70% bonds?

The PP is pretty inefficient in-between changes to regimes or possible changes to regimes. That's why the net portfolio returns are so low -- you're giving back a lot of gains until another asset starts to pick up the slack (and then has to first overcome the losses of the other assets first). But if that wasn't the case, then everyone would be using the Super PP as their porfolio!
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Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:15 pm

MachineGhost wrote:I think he was thinking of flipping between 70% stocks and 70% bonds?
That's what I got out of it, but then I hesitated when typing out 70% stocks first. As in, right now.
Is that the case, iwealth, or is it 70% bonds first?
The PP is pretty inefficient in-between changes to regimes or possible changes to regimes. That's why the net portfolio returns are so low -- you're giving back a lot of gains until another asset starts to pick up the slack (and then has to first overcome the losses of the other assets first). But if that wasn't the case, then everyone would be using the Super PP as their porfolio!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by iwealth » Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:42 pm

It was just a rant, btw.

70/30 to 30/70 was just an example. A 60/40 to all cash switch looks great in tests as well. Heck, maybe add 10% gold and do 60/30/10 when bullish switch to 90 cash/10 gold when bearish. The exact allocation isn't important. The goal would be to mitigate risk (loss) during bearish periods while maximizing returns during bullish periods.

If I was to embark on something like this I'd probably wait until there was a signal change to enter any position. You'd be hard-pressed to find a bearish signal right now, so I'd probably stay put until all chosen signals switch. These aren't super secret super complicated signals either, we're talking stuff like 200 SMA, simple MA crossovers, the $OEXA200R signal (Google that if interested), etc. I'm not sure which I'd use, and I'm not sure it really matters. I'd use a combination of 3-4 signals and exit when all are bearish and re-enter when any of the 3-4 turn bullish. It's more about discipline than it is choosing the perfect signal parameters.

I want to be invested. I'm not trying to reduce my max peak to trough drawdown to single digits. I'm trying to figure out what sort of strategy will leave me with the warmest, fuzziest feeling when/if this leg of the Fed-induced multi-asset class bubble pops. Maybe gold survives. We know cash will survive. Equities and LT bonds...eesh.

I'm not a member of the "it's going to be different this time" club. I've always hated that club, but for me, their advertising paraphernalia has been particularly persuasive lately.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 23, 2016 2:51 pm

iwealth wrote:These aren't super secret super complicated signals either, we're talking stuff like 200 SMA, simple MA crossovers, the $OEXA200R signal (Google that if interested), etc. I'm not sure which I'd use, and I'm not sure it really matters. I'd use a combination of 3-4 signals and exit when all are bearish and re-enter when any of the 3-4 turn bullish. It's more about discipline than it is choosing the perfect signal parameters.
You've probably got ochotona's attention, at least.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by JohnnyFactor » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:33 pm

Pointedstick wrote:The gist of your question is, "when everything's high, what do you do?"
Logic tells me that when everything is high, it means money has been spread across all assets. Seems like people are betting on everything but cash until the direction of the economic wind is clear. We should be back in traditional PP land when that happens.

My guess is that stocks will bust out over the next four years to new all-time highs. We're entering an age of automation and technology that's never been imagined before and I suspect, approaching 2020, people will be optimistic for the future. Now, I don't know if that's my head or my gut talking, so I'll be sticking with 4x25 for now.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 04, 2016 7:42 am

Just letting out a little scream to see gold under $1300, yet again.

It is funny, not necessarily manipulation, but interesting that all these waterfalls seem to happen at specific times of the day.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 am

Yikes!
Easy come, easy go.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:33 am

buddtholomew wrote:Yikes!
Easy come, easy go.
I think the market is pricing in a Slick Hilly win... i.e. "risk on".

If Trump wins, I'm DCAing extra into the resulting FUBAR. It'll be like a chicken with its head cut off!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:49 pm

Cortopassi wrote:Just letting out a little scream to see gold under $1300, yet again.

It is funny, not necessarily manipulation, but interesting that all these waterfalls seem to happen at specific times of the day.
Big drop in the British pound today, and major strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:56 pm

I don't pretend to know how it works, but the dollar is up 0.4% and gold is down over 3%. Certainly never 1:1 when this happens. And silver always goes in lockstep.

When they want to pound on gold is is pounded into dust, and rarely is the stock or bond market hit with such force with such regularity.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:50 pm

dualstow wrote:You've probably got ochotona's attention, at least.
I'm actually still desiring to buy and hold physical gold. I don't plan on trend-following it. I suspended my slow buying in December 2015. Look like I may get a chance to buy some more soon. Patience!
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