The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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ochotona
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:35 am

MachineGhost wrote:Gold commercials are popping up again like in 2011.
That's an anectodal sign of a top, for sure.
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jul 18, 2016 8:41 am

MachineGhost wrote:Gold commercials are popping up again like in 2011.
Should I buy from APMEX or G. Gordon Liddy?
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:06 am

Gold up .35, silver up 2%, all other metals higher.
What gives?
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:36 am

buddtholomew wrote:Gold up .35, silver up 2%, all other metals higher.
What gives?
WSJ says
Gold Rebounds on Weaker Dollar
Market sentiment after productivity report also helps boost the metal
http://www.wsj.com/articles/gold-reboun ... 1470838605
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:42 am

Should have been more clear.
I am referring to the disparity in gains across metals, with gold now positive .25%
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Aug 10, 2016 11:57 am

ah. Who knows.
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 22, 2016 11:17 am

Two out of three Canadians live within about 60 miles of the American border. — NYT
Lenovo To Sell OEM Ubuntu PCs To the Public (Tom's Hardware)
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MachineGhost
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Sep 22, 2016 12:02 pm

That movie is epic awesomeness.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Sep 22, 2016 12:13 pm

agreed
Two out of three Canadians live within about 60 miles of the American border. — NYT
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MachineGhost
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by MachineGhost » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:01 pm

Get ready to bend over...

Image
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
iwealth
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by iwealth » Fri Sep 23, 2016 10:43 am

More and more lately I've been considering abandoning the idea of risk parity portfolios like the PP and doing something like a 70/30 switch into a 30/70 when indicated by basic mechanical timing signals. I don't believe one can "time the market" from a day-trading perspective, but backtests show it is possible to use market timing to substantially reduce drawdowns. Like the PP, you give up massive equity-like gains in bull markets. You are also susceptible to black swan events such as the 1987 crash.

Gold's future is cloudy for me. I just don't understand it. And when does the bond party end? Will they play nice during the next crisis? Maybe, but even the Fed admits they are in unchartered territory with monetary policy. They seem genuinely fearful.

I get equities. Are we flying too close to the sun right now? Probably. Will we party like it's 2008 all over again? Probably. Will we then rally to new highs at some point in the future? The long history of the stock market says yes.

Just ranting here.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Pointedstick » Fri Sep 23, 2016 12:09 pm

The gist of your question is, "when everything's high, what do you do?"

I don't think anyone really has an answer, other than "pile into cash and risk missing the party." In this kind of situation, I think the PP is actually one of the best portfolios you can have. You never know which asset is going to fall or crash first, and the other assets all stand to benefit from that happening.
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