What % of your PP gold is physical?

[frugal]

I encourage holding at least some physical gold as a hedge against something really really bad happening. Call it disaster insurance. In an SHTF scenario financial markets might be closed and you might have difficulty redeeming paper shares of gold. In general I am not one of the conspiracy gold bugs who are convinced the ETFs are all frauds. I think that's silly. Too many people would have to be in on something that big and someone would blab. But that doesn't mean there aren't counter-party risks.

All things said as long as we don't have a disaster, ETFs are probably fine. And they admittedly are a lot more convenient. But even if you use an ETF I'd try to buy some coins when you are rebalancing into gold. You can use the ETF for rebalancing out.

That's exactly my idea!

[PP67]

Has anyone bought (or tried to buy) physical gold recently?  Someone in my office went down to a fairly large dealer a couple of days ago and could not buy anything for any price...  For those of you who did buy, what premium did you have to pay?

[dualstow]

Has anyone bought (or tried to buy) physical gold recently?  Someone in my office went down to a fairly large dealer a couple of days ago and could not buy anything for any price...  For those of you who did buy, what premium did you have to pay?

I noticed this on the front page of the oft-mentioned dealer, AJPM:

With the recent market upheaval, the U.S. Mint as well as private mints are not able to keep up with the demand causing premium swings and incredbly slow delivery times. Please be advised there is a serious backlog of material and we are doing our best to have SOMETHING to offer in both Gold & Silver products. Please note our increased bids for all silver products.

[Kriegsspiel]

Goldmart has been sold out of a few different coins for the last couple days.  I just grabbed up some Eagles though.

[Ad Orientem]

I would be careful not to overpay for gold. Some dealers are taking advantage of this alleged shortage to really jack up their premiums on some of the more popular products like 1 oz. Eagles. Remember you are buying gold, not art. Try to keep the premium as low as you can. I would suggest looking at South African Krugerands which are well known and widely traded. They are also generally less expensive than the Eagles. You might also look at buying small bars instead of coins. And for those who are fortunate enough to have significant assets, maybe just get enough coins to tide you over in an emergency and buy the rest in larger bars. In gold and silver it pays to buy in bulk.

[Pointedstick]

Great point, Ad Orientem. Canadian Maples often have low premiums as well.

[MachineGhost]

What are the premiums like during this "shortage"?

[Kriegsspiel]

4.8% total over the spot price.

[flyingpylon]

At APMEX (granted, they are not the rock-bottom cheapest but they are competitive), 1oz Eagles are about 4.8% over spot while Maples and Krugs are about 4.1%.  But they do seem to have everything in stock.

[k9]

I'm only holding physical gold. I don't like having too many people between my assets and I, especially with gold (which is supposed to protect me against financial & political maëlstroms). I think I could cope with a little part of it with ETFs, for rebalancing reasons, but I haven't done it yet (I don't sell gold yet, only buy some more or not, because my portfolio is still very small and taxes are very dissuasive in France for ETFs).

[MachineGhost]

It looks like 1oz bars have the lowest premium above spot right now.  Whats the point in paying a higher premium just to get a common gold coin?

Also, I've asked this several times before without getting a clear answer, but what split is safe enough between deep and shallow for ease in rebalancing?  I rather avoid 50% if 66%-75% deep would work.

[stuper1]

But do the gold bars have the lowest spread?  From what I've seen, the American Eagles and the Krugerrands have the lowest spread, so you pay less of a premium between your buy and sell points.  Also, the coins are harder to counterfeit than a bar.

[dualstow]

It looks like 1oz bars have the lowest premium above spot right now.  Whats the point in paying a higher premium just to get a common gold coin?

I thought the point of owning coins was their common-ness. Aren't they easier to sell?
I have never bought bars, but I thought coins were the only recommended physical form.

[frugal]

I'm only holding physical gold. I don't like having too many people between my assets and I, especially with gold (which is supposed to protect me against financial & political maëlstroms). I think I could cope with a little part of it with ETFs, for rebalancing reasons, but I haven't done it yet (I don't sell gold yet, only buy some more or not, because my portfolio is still very small and taxes are very dissuasive in France for ETFs).

How would you sell all it?

In Europe is not that easy to sell the bars or coins.

Tks

[Pointedstick]

In Europe is not that easy to sell the bars or coins.

Why not, out of curiosity? Can't you just walk over to a dealer and sell them? Also in the USA you can mail them to one of the sellers like Goldmart or APMEX; aren't there any European gold dealers that offer the same service? I don't understand why it should be any more difficult for Europeans than it is for Americans.

[frugal]

In Europe is not that easy to sell the bars or coins.

Why not, out of curiosity? Can't you just walk over to a dealer and sell them? Also in the USA you can mail them to one of the sellers like Goldmart or APMEX; aren't there any European gold dealers that offer the same service? I don't understand why it should be any more difficult for Europeans than it is for Americans.

now with crisis Gold dealers increased a lot

but I don't know if they will persist after all the private gold sales that happened in the last years

[Pointedstick]

now with crisis Gold dealers increased a lot

but I don't know if they will persist after all the private gold sales that happened in the last years

Increased what… their prices? Wouldn't that make it better for you to sell your gold to them?

[MachineGhost]

But do the gold bars have the lowest spread?  From what I've seen, the American Eagles and the Krugerrands have the lowest spread, so you pay less of a premium between your buy and sell points.  Also, the coins are harder to counterfeit than a bar.

Are you saying the premium to buy or sell isn't one half of the spread, but an extra charge?  I thought they were the one and the same, hmm!

[MachineGhost]

It looks like 1oz bars have the lowest premium above spot right now.  Whats the point in paying a higher premium just to get a common gold coin?

I thought the point of owning coins was their common-ness. Aren't they easier to sell?
I have never bought bars, but I thought coins were the only recommended physical form.

I think as long as you use official bars from the major banks and not secondary tier players, there's not a fungibility issue.  But being cynical, in a real crisis you're probably not going to be able to sell your gold domestically or repatriate it due to government-imposed capital and exchange controls (at least eventually if Argentina is any indication), so the form matters little if held overseas.  So I don't see too much point in holding common gold coins at higher premiums non-locally.  In fact, I'm not seeing much point in coins at all unless there is an upside kicker ala semi-numismatic or practical use ala junk silver.  Coins are bulky, hard to transport, easily confiscated at borders and if you need them out the country to exchange for local currency (there's not usually incoming capital controls!), why even have them in the country to begin with?

Someone shoot holes in my logic, please!

[annieB]

So in a panic,who exactly are we trading with?
Coins,gold bars,whatever.
Glad I have this Glock 45 plus some of it's friends.

[k9]

I'm only holding physical gold. I don't like having too many people between my assets and I, especially with gold (which is supposed to protect me against financial & political maëlstroms). I think I could cope with a little part of it with ETFs, for rebalancing reasons, but I haven't done it yet (I don't sell gold yet, only buy some more or not, because my portfolio is still very small and taxes are very dissuasive in France for ETFs).

How would you sell all it?

In Europe is not that easy to sell the bars or coins.

Well, it's harder but it's not that hard either
Currently, you can go

- to the bank (rather expensive),

- to a local dealer (there are quite a few in any big city, at least in France -- you can at least go to Paris if you have quite a lot of coins to sell and have a good price ; I know Brussels has a lot of dealers too). The more you sell, the better price per oz you get,

- or you can sell it to an individual investor through internet, craigslist & al. work quite well, provided buyer and seller physically meet each other and conclude the transaction this way. This is a little more complicated, you have to be able to detect fake coins when you're the buyer and choose a safe place to conclude the transaction, but you have amazingly interesting prices : you skip both the dealer's fees and the government's taxes (but shush, I didn't say that of course). This is more adapted to rather small amounts, for security reasons.

So, for small amounts (up to, say, 10 oz) -> investor to investor ; for big amounts (wow, gold bars ? I've never seen any ) -> gold dealer, at worse in your country's capital city, or a bank if nothing else is possible.

That's not very convenient, but, honestly, you don't sell gold that often and, if you do, that's because you hit a rebalancing band, so that means you're making a lot of money in the trade. If you're investing 50% physical-50% ETF and use 35-15 bands, that will probably never happen unless SHTF.

[Kriegsspiel]

But do the gold bars have the lowest spread?  From what I've seen, the American Eagles and the Krugerrands have the lowest spread, so you pay less of a premium between your buy and sell points.  Also, the coins are harder to counterfeit than a bar.

Are you saying the premium to buy or sell isn't one half of the spread, but an extra charge?  I thought they were the one and the same, hmm!

Yea, what?  Doesn't the premium work both ways?  The Eagles are more "expensive" than Krugerrands, but that also works when you sell them, right?

[frugal]

I'm only holding physical gold. I don't like having too many people between my assets and I, especially with gold (which is supposed to protect me against financial & political maëlstroms). I think I could cope with a little part of it with ETFs, for rebalancing reasons, but I haven't done it yet (I don't sell gold yet, only buy some more or not, because my portfolio is still very small and taxes are very dissuasive in France for ETFs).

How would you sell all it?

In Europe is not that easy to sell the bars or coins.

Well, it's harder but it's not that hard either
Currently, you can go

- to the bank (rather expensive),

- to a local dealer (there are quite a few in any big city, at least in France -- you can at least go to Paris if you have quite a lot of coins to sell and have a good price ; I know Brussels has a lot of dealers too). The more you sell, the better price per oz you get,

- or you can sell it to an individual investor through internet, craigslist & al. work quite well, provided buyer and seller physically meet each other and conclude the transaction this way. This is a little more complicated, you have to be able to detect fake coins when you're the buyer and choose a safe place to conclude the transaction, but you have amazingly interesting prices : you skip both the dealer's fees and the government's taxes (but shush, I didn't say that of course). This is more adapted to rather small amounts, for security reasons.

So, for small amounts (up to, say, 10 oz) -> investor to investor ; for big amounts (wow, gold bars ? I've never seen any ) -> gold dealer, at worse in your country's capital city, or a bank if nothing else is possible.

That's not very convenient, but, honestly, you don't sell gold that often and, if you do, that's because you hit a rebalancing band, so that means you're making a lot of money in the trade. If you're investing 50% physical-50% ETF and use 35-15 bands, that will probably never happen unless SHTF.

perfect explanation

i will rebalance with physical for sure

what spreadsheet you use to follow your PP ?

tks

[rocketdog]

what spreadsheet you use to follow your PP ?

I know you didn't ask me directly, but I'll butt in to say I simply use Excel.  I have a very complex spreadsheet replete with extensive conditional formatting that I created myself and that I'm constantly tweaking and playing around with.  I have probably 2-dozen different tabs with all manner of historical stats I track, mostly out of curiosity.  Some of them are just one-time research projects I was doing that I keep around for future reference.  But my most-used tabs are these:

1. Future projections of how much my PP/VP will be worth each year between now and retirement, factoring in all variables such as increases in the 401K/IRA limits, fluctuations in the markets, inflation, and any other variables I discover.  I just like having a thumbnail idea of whether or not I'm likely to hit my targets.
2. The "master" spreadsheet, where I track the holdings in each of my accounts (and my wife's accounts).  This is my most critical spreadsheet, the one I can't live without.  It houses all the pertinent data about each fund.  I also categorize them as to which asset of the PP they fall under, if any (for our 401K accounts, where our choices are limited).
3. A "modeling" spreadsheet that pulls data from my "master" spreadsheet and enables me to determine when and where I need to rebalance.
4. A "target" spreadsheet where I can see an overview of exactly how my overall holdings break down into the various PP/VP categories.  This is where I can get a sense of whether I might have too much in bonds, or too much foreign exposure, etc.
5. A "tracking" spreadsheet, where I track various market indexes along with my portfolios each month, to see how I'm stacking up.
6. An "allocation" spreadsheet that aggregates investing advice from every source I come across.  So if I read a book that provides advice on asset allocation, I add it to this spreadsheet.  I then calculate stats like averages, medians, percentages, ranges, and so on.  This gives me an overall feel for what the general consensus is as far as asset allocation.

This of course is total overkill for 99% of the people out there.  But I'm an Excel junkie so I like slicing and dicing data every which way to develop a better understanding of it.  You could easily get away with a single spreadsheet, and maybe a pivot table that works from that data to summarize and categorize your data in different ways. 

[dualstow]

what spreadsheet you use to follow your PP ?

I know it's not as much fun as starting a thread within a thread, frugal, but there are some good posts here:
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... ;topicseen ('Tracking Your PP's Performance') In which I ask the same.
http://gyroscopicinvesting.com/forum/ht ... ;topicseen ('Spreadsheets to Track PP') by TripleB

Very helpful to me, anyway.