Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

stone wrote: TBV, did the big discoveries of gold in California and the Yukon make gold less of a "hard currency" during that period and was that instrumental for gold functioning well as money? I'm just struck by how successful monetary metal systems seem to coincide with massive discoveries of new metal. Perhaps the best example of sucessful monetary metal was the pieces of eight silver coin system that provided a global currency from the 1500s to the early 1800s. The massive amounts of silver mined in Bolivia and Mexico were crucial for that system IMO. China ran a trade surplus for centuries and ship loads of silver coins went in one direction to China. IMO if thousands of tonnes of silver had not been available to mine; silver would have needed to have been abandoned for that system. Afterall, silver only took off as a global currency once the New World mines were discovered. Gold only took off as money in North America once big gold discoveries were made. Before that didn't people in North America use silver and paper money?
Silver was far more available because of the Spanish and Mexican mines that had been in operation for centuries.  Paper money was also extensively used, though not always as legal tender.  From what I've read, the British contributed to the relative scarcity of gold in the colonies by setting unrealistic exchange rates for foreign currency, which contributed to the reduction of gold circulating in the North American economy (Gresham's Law).

I'm not familiar with the impact of Yukon gold, but the impact during the initial California Gold Rush is difficult to calculate precisely.  California had such a tiny population beforehand, with primitive government institutions and not much of a formal economy to use as a benchmark.  The extraordinary distances that needed to be traversed to supply and re-supply everything, and the skewed male demographic made for some very high prices.  For example, it was sometimes cheaper to send laundry to Hawaii than to have it done locally.  The initial scarcity of goods, services and labor, coupled with the expectation of riches to come may have had as much of an inflationary effect as anything else.  Transportation to California was very expensive relative to the cost of going anywhere else in the US.  So were supplies purchased before arriving at the gold fields.  The supply of labor grew faster than the output of gold, which began a long decline in 1852, so prices began to subside after a few years.  A few years later, surplus capital was siphoned off to finance gold and silver operations in Nevada.  And after 1869, the arrival of cheap eastern goods via the transcontinental railroad led to a glut that actually had a negative initial effect on the local economy.  Ready access to gold did allow for it to be used as direct money, which for a while lessened the felt need for a formal banking system.  In a real sense, the gold rush was financed by the savings of the participants and whatever gold they found.  Later on, when gold mining went corporate, that all changed.

One thing to consider: the bubble effect during the early days led to mis-allocation of resources.  There was excessive investment in beef cattle, which crashed when prices eventually declined and cyclical droughts killed off herds.  Quite a few investors in Nevada silver mines also went broke due to over-extended credit and speculative ventures that didn't succeed.  California gold and Nevada silver were also shipped east to help finance the Civil War, so the stimulative effect was not as great as it would have been if both states had been independent countries located elsewhere.  

Periods of sudden expansion of precious metal production can and have affected the value of related coinage.  This is why a bi-metal strategy can be difficult to maintain.

Historical note for all you beer lovers:  A lasting testament to the universality of hard currency.  In 1905, a German company started a brewery in a place that had access to pure mountain spring water....in China.  The place?  Tsingtao.  The money used to finance the project?  Mexican silver dollars.  Now why would a group of Germans not use their own currency or Chinese money for that matter?  I think we all know why.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

MachineGhost wrote:
Gumby wrote: It comes down to an argument for debt-based money vs. debt-free money. I prefer the idea of debt-free money, in certain situations, since debt-based money tends to lead to an ever-increasing money supply (in order to keep things solvent). Thomas Edison and Henry Ford were supporters of debt-free money and were very outspoken against debt-based money. From what I can tell (unless I am misunderstanding his comments) TBV sides with the bankers who wanted money to be debt-based. That's his prerogative. That's really what it comes down to... debt-based money or debt-free money. Pick one.
I don't think debt-based money endears Progressive social engineering or a social safety net.  I just don't see how we can put the genie back in the bottle or even that we want to.  There are clear benefits to society.

It really doesn't matter what you use for money or a medium of exchange anyway, but to have the economy be constrained by a lack of a money supply ala The Great Depression is just bloody stupid.  There were over 400 scrips invented and used by communities during The Great Depression.  Necessity is the mother of all invention.
Don't people borrow more when they feel they are not at too high a risk of defaulting on the debt?  Don't people lend more when there's less risk and that risk is adequately rewarded?  The mob always has money to put out on the street, but do you want to borrow from them?  Conversely, would you like to invest in a 24-hour inner city grocery store?  In either case, money might be available, but no one wants to pull the trigger because they don't feel secure.

It seems the Depression is a good example of this behavior.  The economic decline got worse prior to 1934 and the money supply declined, but this happened both when the Fed tightened credit and when it eased it.  No takers.  Also, the monetary base did not decline from 1929-31 and actually rose from 1931-33.  Still the economy worsened.  Federal Reserve credit did not increase after 1934, when conventional wisdom has it that the economy recovered.  Some argue that it was the advent of the FDIC and Glass-Steagall that encouraged a shift in sentiment and a rise in the money supply.http://www.garynorth.com/public/6153.cfm  If that's true, where should our current focus be?
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Gumby »

TBV wrote:Sort of a shame that I put together all those bullet points and you didn't try to address any of them.
What was there to address? You wrote, "Here are some of the things I learned..." and then proceeded to sarcastically lecture us with a one-sided version of history. If you won't take the time to acknowledge the symbolism in L. Frank Baum's The Wonderful Wizard of Oz, or you won't take the time to discuss why Coxey's Army marched on Washington in 1894, or you won't take the time to discuss why many Americans described the Coinage Act of 1873 as the "Crime of '73," or you won't take the time to discuss why the Greenback Party and the Populist Party existed in the first place, or understand why Thomas Edison and Henry Ford opposed debt-based money, then there's really no point in responding to your one-sided history lecture. None of us were actually alive when any of this happened, so all we can do try to interpret history from various sources. To ignore those historical events and opposing political movements is to ignore half of the story.

The fact of the matter is that all of those things you won't acknowledge were an important part of America's history. I'm not here to say that one side is definitely correct and the other side is incorrect. I think it's far more complex than that. And neither of us lecturing the other on history lessons is going to change the fact that there was a healthy opposition to the gold standard in America. Some people just weren't happy about it. Both sides had legitimate arguments. Who are we to entirely dismiss L. Frank Baum and the supporters of the Greenback movements without trying to understand their message and their struggle?
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by stone »

TBV wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
Gumby wrote: It comes down to an argument for debt-based money vs. debt-free money. I prefer the idea of debt-free money, in certain situations, since debt-based money tends to lead to an ever-increasing money supply (in order to keep things solvent). Thomas Edison and Henry Ford were supporters of debt-free money and were very outspoken against debt-based money. From what I can tell (unless I am misunderstanding his comments) TBV sides with the bankers who wanted money to be debt-based. That's his prerogative. That's really what it comes down to... debt-based money or debt-free money. Pick one.
I don't think debt-based money endears Progressive social engineering or a social safety net.  I just don't see how we can put the genie back in the bottle or even that we want to.  There are clear benefits to society.

It really doesn't matter what you use for money or a medium of exchange anyway, but to have the economy be constrained by a lack of a money supply ala The Great Depression is just bloody stupid.  There were over 400 scrips invented and used by communities during The Great Depression.  Necessity is the mother of all invention.
Don't people borrow more when they feel they are not at too high a risk of defaulting on the debt?  Don't people lend more when there's less risk and that risk is adequately rewarded?  The mob always has money to put out on the street, but do you want to borrow from them?  Conversely, would you like to invest in a 24-hour inner city grocery store?  In either case, money might be available, but no one wants to pull the trigger because they don't feel secure.

It seems the Depression is a good example of this behavior.  The economic decline got worse prior to 1934 and the money supply declined, but this happened both when the Fed tightened credit and when it eased it.  No takers.  Also, the monetary base did not decline from 1929-31 and actually rose from 1931-33.  Still the economy worsened.  Federal Reserve credit did not increase after 1934, when conventional wisdom has it that the economy recovered.  Some argue that it was the advent of the FDIC and Glass-Steagall that encouraged a shift in sentiment and a rise in the money supply.http://www.garynorth.com/public/6153.cfm  If that's true, where should our current focus be?
Personally I think the 1930s slump was "cured" by the waste and destruction of WWII that rebooted the system. I think the huge policy mistake made in 2008 was to bail out the banks. Basically the 2008 crisis was the economy's own way of trying to slough off an impossible burden of phoney duplicate claims over the world's real assets. If the banks had been left to fail and all of the banking corporate bonds (largely owned by other banks) had been left to default then the situation now would be much like that after the US authorities wrote off all of the debts in post WWII Germany (but protected bank deposits). That set the scene for the German economic miracle.
The 1930s bank collapses were destructive rather than curative but I think that was because bank deposits were not protected. I appreciate that the decision to protect deposits and not bond holders is a mixed bag of intervention and non-intervention but it does look to me to be the pragmatic way to heal things. 
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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stone wrote: The 1930s bank collapses were destructive rather than curative but I think that was because bank deposits were not protected. I appreciate that the decision to protect deposits and not bond holders is a mixed bag of intervention and non-intervention but it does look to me to be the pragmatic way to heal things. 

Just to play devil's advocate here, what do you think of that decision now that more people than ever before are bondholders? In addition to people like us who directly own bonds or bond funds, lots of average people indirectly own bonds through funds in their 401(k)s, or in trusts administered by their pension's actuaries. Certainly there are still more depositors of course, but it's not like bondholders are exclusively monocle-wearing aristocrats.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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Pointedstick wrote:
stone wrote: The 1930s bank collapses were destructive rather than curative but I think that was because bank deposits were not protected. I appreciate that the decision to protect deposits and not bond holders is a mixed bag of intervention and non-intervention but it does look to me to be the pragmatic way to heal things. 

Just to play devil's advocate here, what do you think of that decision now that more people than ever before are bondholders? In addition to people like us who directly own bonds or bond funds, lots of average people indirectly own bonds through funds in their 401(k)s, or in trusts administered by their pension's actuaries. Certainly there are still more depositors of course, but it's not like bondholders are exclusively monocle-wearing aristocrats.
I think it is important not to bail out irresponsible banks as a way to bail out share holders or bond holders (irrespective of whether they wear monocles :) ). If you feel that pensioners (or monocle-wearing aristocrats) will be hard up and are worthy of government largess, then be straight about it and give them government hand outs directly. If banks can't fail, then banks have carte blanche to bloat up to the point where everyone is either a banker or a government employee and it is left to the government to attempt to run the real economy.
Protecting bank deposits seems to me quite different from protecting banks. Regular real economy transactions require bank deposit accounts. People don't typically consider a bank account as being an investment in the bank. If you let bank deposits evaporate as happened in the 1930s, then non-banking industries grind to a halt. That is not true if you let bank corporate bonds evaporate.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

Gumby:

Having lectured on American history over the years, I assure you I'm aware of the greenback movement, populism and Coxey's Army.  Revealing the shortcomings of a theory espoused in a certain video (Baum's Oz and the idea of debt-free money) doesn't signify unfamiliarity with, a failure to acknowledge, or even opposition to those views.  It simply means that the explanatory power of the theory as presented is limited.  The point is not that certain groups espoused easy money. They did.  But they also insisted that national economic vitality depended on it.  It didn't.

What you should ponder is why urban America, which was generally indifferent to the issue of free silver, felt that way.  I've read that urban debt exceeded rural debt and tended to be longer term.  The east and midwest were teaming with immigrants and urban workers.  Yet that did not spark a rally toward silver.  Why not?  It's often said that all politics are local.  Well, the late 19th century saw a rapid improvement in worldwide transport and a substantial increase in the availability of grain from far-off places like Russia.  This depressed farm prices, but lowered the urban cost of living while expanding consumer choice.  The future of the American economy was increasingly tied to the export trade.  Gold played a useful role in facilitating this trade. The size and influence of urban America was expanding while rural America was declining in relative terms.  The silver movement was a conscious attempt to buttress farm incomes at the expense of the very things that were benefiting the more urban and industrial parts of America.  It was a losing proposition, and a glance at the electoral map of the 1896 election clearly shows that.  Presidential elections in the late 19th century tended to be quite close in terms of popular vote.  By comparison, 1896 was a blowout.

From time to time, various people and groups support certain policies, sometimes with great passion.  That does not make those policies, ipso facto, wiser.  For example...
  • Henry Ford was a manufacturing genius whose strong views on automobiles and production design changed the world. He was also a famous pacifist, but one who felt that war was the by-product of an international conspiracy of Jewish bankers.  What a guy!
  • During the Depression, many felt that high tariffs were needed in order to save jobs.  So, the Hoot-Smawley Tariff was passed.  It had the opposite effect.
  • In the 1960's, the principal leaders of the civil rights movement argued that the space program was a waste of money that should instead be spent on anti-poverty programs in places like Detroit.  Would thoughtful people repeat such sentiments today?
  • Just a few years ago, it was conventional wisdom to assert that increasing the rate of home ownership was a goal that should be supported at all costs.  How did that turn out?
Free silver may be one of those policies.  Latter-day fascination with it has more to do with support for easy money in general rather support for a particular form of hard currency.  In fact, hard currency and monetary expansion are now seen as antithetical terms.  Go figure.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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Pointedstick wrote: I think it is important not to bail out irresponsible banks as a way to bail out share holders or bond holders (irrespective of whether they wear monocles :) ). If banks can't fail, then banks have carte blanche to bloat up to the point where everyone is either a banker or a government employee and it is left to the government to attempt to run the real economy.

Protecting bank deposits seems to me quite different from protecting banks. Regular real economy transactions require bank deposit accounts. People don't typically consider a bank account as being an investment in the bank. If you let bank deposits evaporate as happened in the 1930s, then non-banking industries grind to a halt. That is not true if you let bank corporate bonds evaporate.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by stone »

Might one way to get "sound money" be to define USD (or GBP in the UK etc) as particular fractions of military salaries for each rank (eg 1/20000th of a private's pay or whatever). Payment of government employees is the only thing that the currency issuer (the government) has total control over. No government would be stupid enough to underpay the military. So the government could and would ensure that the currency maintained its value.

Last time I mentioned this, Gumby said that inflation made people happy and so we should keep inflation. Personally I think inflation is a smoke and mirrors sneakiness that leads to lots of waste.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Gumby »

TBV, thank you for that. Clearly your knowledge of history is impressive (and your lectures sound like they would be fascinating to hear!). And I agree with much of what you said.

I sort of assumed that most people in urban areas tended to back the gold standard because they were exposed to newspaper editorials and politicians (who were backed by those with lots of wealth) that wanted to convince the masses that gold was "sound money" and better for everyone. Whereas farmers and workers in the mid-west were starving for liquidity saw it differently. Perhaps that's a bit cynical, but even during the information age we live in now, most people are sympathetic to their own selective media exposure. Is it too much of a stretch to assume that the opinions of urban readers during the late 1800s were somewhat influenced by those with money?

To me, this history lesson is really about whether or not our entire money supply should be entirely debt-based or not. Is it really fair that all money needs to come from debt or credit? When a society adopts a policy where all money must come from either a public or private debt, the interest on those debt payments usually causes a never-ending debt/credit spiral. It means that students must generally borrow money if they want to educate themselves — thus starting their work careers with a debt burden. From a macro perspective, only a minority become "successful" and the rest are generally left to carry a private debt burden to the rich (unless they can position themselves to receive new deficit spending). Why not create some debt-free money for students to start their careers on the right foot?

Gold is just a buffer stock (in this case, a commodity held to stabilize a currency). All currencies need a buffer stock scheme. Without a buffer stock, the currency would fail — and there are many examples of this. A buffer stock could be gold, silver, platinum, wheat, FX, or perhaps something more analytical (such as data from unemployment or GDP). I don't believe that gold is the perfect buffer stock. It often causes a need for debt. In a debt-based society, the debt tends to create an unnecessary burden for those who don't have access to money. And it tends to concentrate money with those who already have wealth.
Last edited by Gumby on Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

Gumby:

I truly appreciate your magnanimous response.  As far as informational blinkers are concerned, we have all been victims at one time or another.  In fact, due to the conventional content of academic history texts, I used to teach certain themes in ways that closely followed the line you originally presented.  Mea culpa.

I heartily agree with the notion that gold is one of many commodities that can backstop money.  However, it has certain intrinsic advantages (in my view).  We have every right to explore alternatives to the present system, one which is clearly beyond the control of ordinary citizens.  The trick is in expanding opportunities to gain wealth without reducing the heard-earned wealth of others in the process.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Gumby »

TBV wrote: Gumby:

I truly appreciate your magnanimous response.  As far as informational blinkers are concerned, we have all been victims at one time or another.  In fact, due to the conventional content of academic history texts, I used to teach certain themes in ways that closely followed the line you originally presented.  Mea culpa.

I heartily agree with the notion that gold is one of many commodities that can backstop money.  However, it has certain intrinsic advantages (in my view).  We have every right to explore alternatives to the present system, one which is clearly beyond the control of ordinary citizens.  The trick is in expanding opportunities to gain wealth without reducing the heard-earned wealth of others in the process.
Well said, TBV. Stone has had some fascinating ideas on this, btw. Would love to see you guys discuss some of them.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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TBV wrote: Having lectured on American history over the years, I assure you I'm aware of the greenback movement, populism and Coxey's Army.  Revealing the shortcomings of a theory espoused in a certain video (Baum's Oz and the idea of debt-free money) doesn't signify unfamiliarity with, a failure to acknowledge, or even opposition to those views.  It simply means that the explanatory power of the theory as presented is limited.  The point is not that certain groups espoused easy money. They did.  But they also insisted that national economic vitality depended on it.  It didn't.
It shows.  You've put together several really outstanding posts in this thread.  I was fortunate enough to have had one really excellent history teacher in particular early in life and for a moment you transported me back.  :)

Thanks for the illuminating material.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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TBV wrote:The trick is in expanding opportunities to gain wealth without reducing the heard-earned wealth of others in the process.
I'm pondering this...

I wonder if this is somewhat impossible. How do we preserve wealth while simultaneously allowing others to become wealthier? By definition, as others become wealthier a wealthy person's own wealth becomes more ordinary in relation to everyone else. Therefore, the only way to preserve one's wealth is to keep most people poor.

Stone can probably touch on this better than I can, but I don't see how the rich can stay rich when the poor become richer. Maybe the best we can do is just to continually improve the standard of living and make sure everyone has a job.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

Gumby wrote:
TBV wrote:The trick is in expanding opportunities to gain wealth without reducing the heard-earned wealth of others in the process.
I'm pondering this...

I wonder if this is somewhat impossible. How do we preserve wealth while simultaneously allowing others to become wealthier? By definition, as others become wealthier a wealthy person's own wealth becomes more ordinary in relation to everyone else. Therefore, the only way to preserve one's wealth is to keep most people poor.

Stone can probably touch on this better than I can, but I don't see how the rich can stay rich when the poor become richer. Maybe the best we can do is just to improve the standard of living and make sure everyone has a job.
Let's say you're an unemployed carpenter in a small village.  I own a small store there.  Rather than buy fancy china, I lend you money to help you build a small bridge to span the creek which occasionally rises to cut the village off from the surrounding countryside.  The bridge brings in more customers.  Locals get out and about more.  You get to collect tolls or an assessment payable by the village's residents.  You pay me back with interest.  Everyone is richer and happier.

Update:  No sooner did I post the above reply than I remembered the swirling controversy about a bridge project between Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario.  The link shows the difference between private transactions involving an exchange of value for value (on the one hand) and the way we usually do things (on the other.)  Is it possible that some folks may come out way ahead in ways that are not entirely clear, while others get screwed?  Probably.http://www.freep.com/article/20110424/NEWS06/104240595
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Gumby »

TBV wrote:You get to collect tolls or an assessment payable by the village's residents.  You pay me back with interest.  Everyone is richer and happier.
Well, perhaps not everyone is happier. From a Macro perspective, private credit needs to constantly increase in order for the population to pay the toll every time someone crosses the bridge — that is, if the money paid as tolls isn't continuously spent back into the economy. The interest on that constantly increasing private credit will become a burden on that society (paid back to rich lenders, of course). When wealth piles up into the hands of the rich, it makes it harder for people to pay the tolls.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

Gumby wrote:
TBV wrote:You get to collect tolls or an assessment payable by the village's residents.  You pay me back with interest.  Everyone is richer and happier.
Well, perhaps not everyone is happier. From a Macro perspective, private credit needs to constantly increase in order for the population to pay the toll every time someone crosses the bridge — that is, if the money paid as tolls isn't continuously spent back into the economy. The interest on that constantly increasing private credit will become a burden on that society (paid back to rich lenders, of course). When wealth piles up into the hands of the rich, it makes it harder for people to pay the tolls.
Color me old fashioned, but I was envisioning a much smaller time-limited return for our intrepid carpenter, not a lifetime stream of income.  Folks could use the bridge, or not, paying with their disposable income, enhanced perhaps by an increase in overall commerce.  If it met the needs of enough people, both lender and borrower would be rewarded.  If not, we'd both suffer the loss.

Gumby, I didn't catch your full meaning when you alluded to one's wealth becoming "ordinary."  I see no obligation for anyone to have to preserve the relative status of one person vis a vis another.  It suffices (for me) that spending power a) not be debased and b) be able to participate in the benefits of innovation.  As the pool of societal wealth increases, the value of money ought to as well, unless diluted by too much inflation (in the old money supply meaning of the term.)  Much like when computers get better and faster, the existing money in my pocket can buy more of them, even as some people (like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) may leap ahead of me in terms of relative wealth.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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Gumby wrote: I wonder if this is somewhat impossible. How do we preserve wealth while simultaneously allowing others to become wealthier? By definition, as others become wealthier a wealthy person's own wealth becomes more ordinary in relation to everyone else.
Does it really matter if someone else has more wealth than I do?  If I grow wealthier in real terms, what do I care if my neighbor grows wealthier at a faster rate?

There's no better way to feel unhappy, poor, and unattractive than to waste time worrying about what someone else does/doesn't have.  Many politicians and most of what you see on TV, of course, try to encourage you to do as much of that as possible.  :)
Gumby wrote:Therefore, the only way to preserve one's wealth is to keep most people poor.
I would agree if and only if the pool of real wealth was finite and stagnant.  Fortunately for humanity, that has not been the case.  The vast majority of us enjoy greater real wealth than our parents.  Our children will likely enjoy greater real wealth than we do.  (Of course, nothing is ever certain.)  Even so, today's poor are better off than yesteryear's middle class (and better off, even, than the rich of a century ago.)

A fun read on this subject is Jeffrey Tucker's "It's a Jetsons World".  (That's a free PDF download.)
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by dragoncar »

craigr wrote: Contracts under the gold standard stipulated that the payment could be demanded in gold. It was a way to ensure that devaluation threats could be mitigated.

Unfortunately, with the stroke of a pen and blessing from nine black robed federal employees it was all undone:
Oh, so the past.  I can have a contract for gold now, right?
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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TBV wrote:Color me old fashioned, but I was envisioning a much smaller time-limited return for our intrepid carpenter, not a lifetime stream of income.  Folks could use the bridge, or not, paying with their disposable income, enhanced perhaps by an increase in overall commerce.  If it met the needs of enough people, both lender and borrower would be rewarded.  If not, we'd both suffer the loss.
Very well. However any time someone in a debt-based / credit-based society needs money to build a bridge, build a house, go to college, start a business, pay an employee before payments have been received, individuals need to take out a loan from someone who has money. On a macro level the loan needs to be paid back, with interest, and the interest payment doesn't exist in the hands of the population who are taking out loans (on a macro level). They have to go out an earn the interest payment in the economy. It's a burden that the poor must "earn" in order to square up their loan. That's all well and good, but on a Macro level it becomes harder and harder to make the interest payment unless creditors (i.e. those with money/wealth) are continuously spending or investing money back into the economy. The interest payments, over time, leak money — just like an expense ratio — from the bulk of the population to the rich. Again, we are talking about a macro level.
TBV wrote:Gumby, I didn't catch your full meaning when you alluded to one's wealth becoming "ordinary."  I see no obligation for anyone to have to preserve the relative status of one person vis a vis another.  It suffices (for me) that spending power a) not be debased and b) be able to participate in the benefits of innovation.
I agree wholeheartedly. However, what I meant is that when an individual is "wealthy," let's say that they have no trouble acquiring luxury goods/services (a yacht, a Porsche, a luxury hotel room). But, let's say that ten or fifteen years go by and the economy has done so well that now the average person is successful enough to acquire high end luxury goods. How exactly would that work? Since the average person has acquired lots of wealth, would you imagine that the price of all these high end goods have decreased in price? Or has the price managed to remain stable? I would imagine (though I could be wrong) that those goods/services would have increased in price because more people are buying these luxury goods/services than previously and the raw materials needed to build and run them are suddenly harder to acquire. Wouldn't the demand for all of the goods/services in an economy have an inflationary effect?
TBV wrote:As the pool of societal wealth increases, the value of money ought to as well, unless diluted by too much inflation (in the old money supply meaning of the term.)  Much like when computers get better and faster, the existing money in my pocket can buy more of them, even as some people (like Bill Gates or Steve Jobs) may leap ahead of me in terms of relative wealth.
I'm having difficulty picturing how the price of most things goes down. Raw materials become scarcer and scarcer, so I'd think the price for most things would increase. Computers are a good example of decreasing prices, but they are also produced in third world countries. If those same computers were produced domestically, they wouldn't be so cheap — particularly since domestic workers would be demanding more money to buy scarcer resources.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

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Lone Wolf wrote:Does it really matter if someone else has more wealth than I do?  If I grow wealthier in real terms, what do I care if my neighbor grows wealthier at a faster rate?
Well, a normal person would not care. I certainly don't care. But if everyone grew wealthier faster than the top 1%, I can't help but wonder if it would cause the cost of many things to increase in price — thus causing the top 1% to lose purchasing power in real terms. The original premise, as described by TBV, was "expanding opportunities to gain wealth without reducing the heard-earned wealth of others in the process". Well, if 99% of the population becomes wealthier faster than the top 1%, then I still don't see how the purchasing power of the top 1% would be preserved. I'm sure I'm just missing something, so please feel free to enlighten me :)
Lone Wolf wrote:
Gumby wrote:Therefore, the only way to preserve one's wealth is to keep most people poor.
I would agree if and only if the pool of real wealth was finite and stagnant.  Fortunately for humanity, that has not been the case.  The vast majority of us enjoy greater real wealth than our parents.  Our children will likely enjoy greater real wealth than we do.  (Of course, nothing is ever certain.)  Even so, today's poor are better off than yesteryear's middle class (and better off, even, than the rich of a century ago.)
And yet, we've had continuous inflation over the past century while the standard of living has increased for everybody. So, are we saying inflation doesn't matter as long as the standard of living improves for everyone? If so, that's exactly what I was trying to say before.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Gumby »

The Atlantic takes on the subject of this thread. Presented without comment or endorsement...

The Atlantic: Why the Gold Standard Is the World's Worst Economic Idea, in 2 Charts
Last edited by Gumby on Mon Aug 27, 2012 10:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by craigr »

Gumby wrote: The Atlantic takes on the subject of this thread. Presented without comment or endorsement...

The Atlantic: Why the Gold Standard Is the World's Worst Economic Idea, in 2 Charts
Those charts are deceptive. They were specifically generated to exclude inflationary spending of WWI and the post-war recovery to exaggerate the point.

Again I don't get what the problem is with just legalizing gold as currency against the dollar with identical tax treatment. Let the markets decide what works best.

The comparisons with the Great Depression are specious as well. There was a ton of tremendously bad collectivist policy from FDR that did way more damage to the economy than gold coins ever did. The National Recovery Act provides a bounty of examples of how government control of production in an economy can cause widespread turmoil. But for some reason it's this yellow metal that is blamed and not the fact that people like Agricultural Secretary Wallace ordered the slaughtering of millions of pigs, the destruction of crops and price fixing of agricultural products. Also let's not forget the production and price controls in industry, etc.
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by TBV »

Gumby:

I think you might enjoy reading/listening to the discussions about deflation and prosperity as shown below.  You may be surprised by the idea that any level of money supply is sufficient to support vibrant economic exchange so long as prices and interest rates are allowed to adjust.  The problem is that they seldom are.  As for your graph, it shows that a dollar in 1919 was worth a lot more in 1933.  Wouldn't you take that deal?  That's deflation.  Compare that to the the value of a 1913 dollar today.  Today, it takes $23.14 to buy what $1 bought then.  However, be forewarned that your graph selects a specific time period.  The cherry-picking of date ranges can obscure broader realities. The vaunted stability of gold as a store of value is best expressed over long periods of time, not short ones.  What if the start year were 1900? How about 1800?  Well here's a chart that goes back that far.  You be the judge of when the dollar maintained or increased its value and when it didn't.  Then take notice of what was happening at those times and whether the dollar was freely convertible into gold.  Very informative.  http://mykindred.com/cloud/TX/Documents/dollar/

In actual fact, a "gold standard", can mean a lot of different things.  In one variation, governments may issue currency in greater quantities than could be redeemed for the amount of gold on hand.  This can lead to inflation.  In others, they don't allow redemption at all or offer it only to foreign central banks.  However, when the gold supply is faithfully used as a delimiter of currency issuance and free redemption for all is available, the risk of debasement is diminished.

You mention that maybe inflation doesn't matter so long as prosperity prevails.  The trouble is that many people cannot protect themselves against inflation.  According to the Labor Department, most people now are making less in real wages than they did in the early 1970's.  And what happens when you retire and must rely more on savings earning less than 1% a year?  It gets even worse.

Links:
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/feature ... ed-d-word/
http://www.thefreemanonline.org/feature ... -the-ugly/
http://mises.org/media/5241 (audio lecture on the economics of deflation)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxcjT8T3EGU (a video on 19th century banking)
http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm (a handy inflation calculator to play with)
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Re: Repubs party platform: comittee to eval return to gold std and audit fed

Post by Pointedstick »

craigr wrote: Those charts are deceptive. They were specifically generated to exclude inflationary spending of WWI and the post-war recovery to exaggerate the point.
Finally I have something to add to this conversation among intellectual titans! A set of graphs I made a few years ago compiled from official CPI figures detailing that non-inflation-adjusted cost of a good that cost $1 in 1774.

Image

Pre-Fed:
Image

Post-Fed:
Image


Not sure whose position they endorse more, but I compiled them straight from .gov data without manipulating them at all.
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