which coin?

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Lonestar
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which coin?

Post by Lonestar »

Gold American Eagles sell at a small premium over Krugerrands.  Brand new Eagles sell at a small premium over "our choice of dates" Eagles.  Which one of these 3 is the best to hold given the pricing differential?  These would be for long term buy and hold.
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Re: which coin?

Post by MediumTex »

"Our choice of dates Eagles." 

It's a surprisingly beautiful coin as well.
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Re: which coin?

Post by Lonestar »

Not worth it to spend $5 more on the new ones?  I did on my last purchase and they were shiny.  Problem is if you ever sell them they are going to be bought as "old coins" regardless of the dates or new condition.

Why "no" on the Kruggers?
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Re: which coin?

Post by Wonk »

I like Krugs for long term buy and hold....more ounces for the $.
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Re: which coin?

Post by craigr »

If you're not a coin collector and want Eagles, buy the older Eagles. They all have one ounce of gold and you're really not going to get the money back from the newer better condition coins anyway. They will all be bought for around spot price of gold.

If you have some Eagles you could consider adding Krugerrands as they have the same amount of gold for a lower price (usually). But you get less of the premium back selling than with Eagles. But this isn't really a big deal because you paid a lower premium to start with.

In the US most people would recognize and accept an Eagle if you had to spend it in an emergency. The Krugerrand may be less well known here even though it's one of the most widely circulated gold coins on the planet. But again you get more gold for each Krugerrand vs. the Eagles based on price (usually).

Remember that the gold coins in the Permanent Portfolio are not for the numismatic value. The gold value is what's most important. So don't overpay for nicer coins and definitely don't overpay for older coins where dealers say the date protects against "confiscation." It's just not true. I would also avoid gold bars. They are usually packaged in a way to make verification difficult and if opened you may get an assaying charge to verify them when sold.

EDIT: I just looked at AJPM. They are selling Eagles, Maples and Krugerrands for the same price. If that is the case, buy the Eagles because they are recognized legal tender in the US.

http://www.ajpm.com/gold-bullion.html
Last edited by craigr on Thu Sep 30, 2010 12:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: which coin?

Post by craigr »

BTW. I've not checked gold coin prices in a while. It is very unusual for all the major gold coins to sell at the same price the way they are at AJPM. Another site has them at small price differences which is normal:

http://www.coloradogold.com/

Both of these vendors are reliable so purchase from whom you want. Colorado gold appears to have better bid prices and slightly lower sell prices.
Last edited by craigr on Thu Sep 30, 2010 12:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: which coin?

Post by l82start »

how do you feel about the Canadian leaf? and does having graded coins protect against confiscation and is that something worth worrying about?
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Re: which coin?

Post by MediumTex »

l82start wrote: how do you feel about the Canadian leaf?
Nice coin.  If I could buy an Eagle for the same price, however, I would buy the Eagle.
...and does having graded coins protect against confiscation
There are so many other things in life to worry about other than confiscation.  One question to think about when considering confiscation is this: why would the government in a fiat regime want to confiscate gold?  Who cares what the price of gold is if the currency isn't pegged to it?

Don't buy graded coins.  Don't buy graded coins.  Don't buy graded coins.
...and is that something worth worrying about?
Please don't worry about the issue of confiscation and don't buy graded coins for the PP.
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Re: which coin?

Post by Wonk »

l82start wrote: how do you feel about the Canadian leaf? and does having graded coins protect against confiscation and is that something worth worrying about?
I'm with MT on the confiscation issue.  Although, realistically the government wouldn't confiscate--they'd nationalize under some sort of national emergency.  The difference is you'd be paid for your gold under a nationalization.  The only reason they would nationalize gold is to revalue the currency.  In such a scenario, gold stocks perform perfectly well as a short-term hedge against devaluation. 
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Re: which coin?

Post by l82start »

thanks that's good to know.
unfortunately i started buying gold long before i had heard of the pp so i have a few graded coins that i am waiting for a opportunity to sell,
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Re: which coin?

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l82start wrote: thanks that's good to know.
unfortunately i started buying gold long before i had heard of the pp so i have a few graded coins that i am waiting for a opportunity to sell,
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There is nothing wrong with buying and owning numismatic and other graded coins, so long as you enjoy owning such coins.

The problem is that dealers often sell these coins as a "confiscation hedge" to customers who may have just wanted to buy some bullion.  The extra profit goes right in the dealer's pocket, of course.

For a collector who has an interest in a certain kind of coin, numismatics can be a lot of fun to own.  For a PP investor, regular bullion works fine.

For a PP investor who owns numismatic coins, I would just carry these coins on your "PP books" at their bullion value.
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Re: which coin?

Post by l82start »

i enjoy owning them just fine, but do feel a little burned by the dealer, i cant complain to much though, because buying gold led me to study investing, which led me to bogleheads, which led me to the pp, so in the long run i guess they have already payed off.
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Re: which coin?

Post by craigr »

MediumTex wrote:
l82start wrote: how do you feel about the Canadian leaf?
Nice coin.  If I could buy an Eagle for the same price, however, I would buy the Eagle.
...and does having graded coins protect against confiscation
There are so many other things in life to worry about other than confiscation.  One question to think about when considering confiscation is this: why would the government in a fiat regime want to confiscate gold?  Who cares what the price of gold is if the currency isn't pegged to it?

Don't buy graded coins.  Don't buy graded coins.  Don't buy graded coins.
...and is that something worth worrying about?
Please don't worry about the issue of confiscation and don't buy graded coins for the PP.
This sums up my position as well. If the govt. were tyrannical enough to seize gold there is no promise they wouldn't try to seize all of it regardless of collector's value.
Last edited by craigr on Thu Sep 30, 2010 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: which coin?

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i think (and i am not sure of this) that there are laws preventing confiscation of collectibles, i don't think that's any real guarantee though.. 
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Re: which coin?

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l82start wrote: i think (and i am not sure of this) that there are laws preventing confiscation of collectibles, i don't think that's any real guarantee though..  
Laws can be changed instantly in a crisis. But I think it would be very unwise to comply with any order to turn in gold to the government.
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Re: which coin?

Post by Pkg Man »

I prefer Krugerrands.  The buy-sell spread for AGEs is about $29 while that of Krugerrands is about $16.  I purchase from Bullion Direct or Gainesville Coin and am using the buy price from APMEX to determine the spread.  As the most common gold coin in the world, I would think that in a SHTF scenario they would be recognized.  I also own AGEs, but intend to buy Krugerrands from now on.

I would encourage everyone to shop around for the best deal.  Prices vary a lot on the net.
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Re: which coin?

Post by MediumTex »

Pkg Man wrote: I would encourage everyone to shop around for the best deal.  Prices vary a lot on the net.
Let me put in a plug for www.ajpm.com

They are no nonsense, good prices, and quick delivery.
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Re: which coin?

Post by Lonestar »

I've had good results from Tulving.com but think I will shop the above dealers on next purchase.  I owned Krugs in the past and felt comfortable but mixed with Eagles may be a good option.

Not to change the hijack (but since I started it anyway) when does the dealer "reporting" go into effect?  Will it just be on sales or purchases as well?
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Re: which coin?

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craigr wrote: Laws can be changed instantly in a crisis. But I think it would be very unwise to comply with any order to turn in gold to the government.
Be very careful here.  Keep in mind that from 1933-1971, gold ownership was outlawed--meaning average citizens had no practical means of liquidating the gold they did not turn in prior to Roosevelt's EO.  While it is exciting to think of the possibilities of "sticking it to the man," be aware the consequences could be steep if you travel down this path. 

I'll temper that last paragraph with this: I think it's always a good thing to have some gold in your possession no matter what the laws.  This is for catastrophic political scenarios where you need safe passage to a new country.  You can even get creative and buy old gold jewelry (junk gold) and store it for such a scenario.  "Family Heirlooms" could be the basis for your case.

IMO, if the U.S. revisits 1933, most investors will be able to protect against a devaluation buy purchasing ownership in gold mining companies.  Just observe Homestake Mining from 1932-1935.  Be careful of the decisions you make if such a situation arises again.  There may not be a good way of resolving a prior error in judgement.
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Re: which coin?

Post by craigr »

Wonk wrote:
craigr wrote: Laws can be changed instantly in a crisis. But I think it would be very unwise to comply with any order to turn in gold to the government.
Be very careful here.  Keep in mind that from 1933-1971, gold ownership was outlawed--meaning average citizens had no practical means of liquidating the gold they did not turn in prior to Roosevelt's EO.  While it is exciting to think of the possibilities of "sticking it to the man," be aware the consequences could be steep if you travel down this path.  
There is an article that talks a bit about this here:

http://www.coloradogold.com/archive/Con ... n-157.html

But even if gold holders were wracked with guilt about non-compliance, there are alternatives. If someone really thought that some gold confiscation were going to happen they could convert the gold into other hard assets beforehand. They could, for instance, purchase real estate as seizing land Bolshevik style is incredibly unpopular politically. If you purchased the land in a foreign country that could be even better as then the asset is even less likely to be compromised. If you don't have enough for real estate, then other tangibles you could put to use could be bought (fuel, firearms, food, etc). They can't seize everything.
IMO, if the U.S. revisits 1933, most investors will be able to protect against a devaluation buy purchasing ownership in gold mining companies.  Just observe Homestake Mining from 1932-1935.  Be careful of the decisions you make if such a situation arises again.  There may not be a good way of resolving a prior error in judgement.
I'm not so sure. The reason that company stock went up so much is probably because FDR devalued the dollar. So almost overnight the price of gold went from $20.67 an ounce to $35 an ounce. That kind of windfall is unlikely to repeat for miners as we can only break the gold standard once.

The only reason at this point for the US to seize gold would be in a vain attempt to build up their balance sheet to repay debts. But the US has so many other natural resources to its name worth more than privately held gold (and more easily taken) that I think the idea of seizing gold is very remote. Not to say impossible, but remote.
Last edited by craigr on Fri Oct 01, 2010 11:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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