Best Deal right now on Gold

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:16 pm

Math has literally nothing to do with investing. #WSB
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
ppnewbie
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by ppnewbie » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:23 pm

Im concerned about a slow motion short squeeze on silver. I’ve heard that there could be 200 oz paper traded per physical oz. If the WSB starts taking physical delivery it could basically expose a enormous Ponzi scheme and basically break money.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:02 pm

ppnewbie wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:23 pm
Im concerned about a slow motion short squeeze on silver. I’ve heard that there could be 200 oz paper traded per physical oz. If the WSB starts taking physical delivery it could basically expose a enormous Ponzi scheme and basically break money.
Lots of "experts" think the same thing. I've read and heard enough to think there's a real chance this happens at some point, but no clue when or what will cause it.

It is not a factor in my investing in silver though. Basically whenever i am going to buy gold i check the GSR. If its high 70s or greater i look for good quality low premium silver and buy that instead. If i can find a deal on eagles or maples that's my preference unless there's a much better price on something else.

Last year i bought only silver when the ratio was 90-120. It was hard to buy when everyone was down on silver but i knew it was the right thing to do. I got a nice 100oz scottsdale mint bar for $1,600. Now it costs $3,100. I got eagles from my lcs for $17.50 when spot was $15. I should have bought every single one he had. They are selling for $40 now.

Silver is a wild ride and yeah there are premiums. Just buy when the GSR is high and you won't be disappointed.

And maybe, just maybe, some crazy nuts on an internet forum will send it to $1,000/oz someday.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by ppnewbie » Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:27 pm

I should have listened to you and Mike Maloney! Anyway thanks again for throwing the deals up. It is very helpful.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Sun Feb 14, 2021 12:41 pm

Best Gold Eagle (or Buffalo) deal = Random Year 1 oz Buffalo for $1,973 (7.7% over spot) from https://silvergoldbull.com/1oz-prior-ye ... xOfDB8WXww

Best fractional gold deal = .484 oz US commemorative coin for $922 (4% over spot) from https://bullionexchanges.com/us-mint-go ... prices.com

Cheapest quality gold (that isn't a large amount) = 1 oz gold Lion bar for $1,882 (2.8% over spot) from https://www.scottsdalemint.com/product/ ... -cast-bar/

Best overall = Scottsdale mint bar, no question.

FWIW - I have purchased from all the of these companies and trust them fully.

Bonus best silver deal - 1 oz random silver rounds for $32.14 (16.5% over spot) from https://monumentmetals.com/1-oz-999-sil ... prices.com


What am I buying this week? - I just ordered the Scottsdale mint bar. It's totally different from all my other gold which are 100% sovereign bullion coins.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:16 am

When do the high silver premiums increase spot price instead?
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:02 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 7:16 am
When do the high silver premiums increase spot price instead?
The price you can buy real silver at is the real price, the spot price to me is just a theoretical price.

Therefore in theory, those two prices can be totally disconnected, and I think at some point they will so disconnected that no one will much care what the spot price is.

The reality is it's very hard to find silver at less than $32 an ounce right now, even if you're willing to buy 100oz bars from the secondary market. It's probably hard to even get 1,000oz bars for less than $31.

If demand from retail stays high like this for much longer, I think the paper sellers are going to be in trouble. Demand from mints for 1,000oz bars for delivery will start exposing shortfalls at the Comex and buyers might start getting worried about future delivery, accelerating the process.

Silver is way way bigger than GME, and even GME had a build-up months before the explosion. Most never heard of GME until Jan. As someone who bought 4,000 shares in 2018 and 2019, I can tell you that people were working on this short squeeze for YEARs.

If silver can start to jump, even more will pile on and it could get crazy. I would be worried if I had paper silver though, because you have about a 1% chance of actually getting metal if/when you really need it. The paper price might be at $100/oz when the real price is $200/oz or more.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by ppnewbie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm

Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 am

ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
Wizard of ounces??? :D
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:44 am

SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
Wizard of ounces??? :D
Dude.... nice. How many PM dealers would have wanted to use that as their name through the years, but for the copyright.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Xan
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Xan » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:48 am

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:44 am
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
Wizard of ounces??? :D
Dude.... nice. How many PM dealers would have wanted to use that as their name through the years, but for the copyright.
Apparently the original book, released in 1900, went into the public domain in 1956. There may be other issues with using its title as the name of a company, though.
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Kriegsspiel
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:57 am

Interesting. A simple search would have shown me that this is an old hat topic:
Interestingly, in the original story Dorothy’s slippers were made of silver, not ruby, implying that silver was the Populists’ solution to the nation’s economic woes. Meanwhile, the Yellow Brick Road was the gold standard and Toto (Dorothy’s faithful dog) represented the Prohibitionists, who were an important part of the silverite coalition. The Wicked Witch of the West symbolizes President William McKinley and the Wizard is Mark Hanna, who was the chairman of the Republican Party and made promises that he could not keep. Obviously “Oz” is an abbreviation for “ounce.”
link
Still, it displeases me that there is no dealer with that name. wizardofoz.com is for sale!
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by flyingpylon » Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 pm

Xan wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:48 am
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:44 am
SomeDude wrote:
Tue Feb 16, 2021 1:07 am
ppnewbie wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:06 pm
Agree - the squeeze could take a long time but if it happens the curtains would get pulled back on the wizard of oz.
Wizard of ounces??? :D
Dude.... nice. How many PM dealers would have wanted to use that as their name through the years, but for the copyright.
Apparently the original book, released in 1900, went into the public domain in 1956. There may be other issues with using its title as the name of a company, though.
Turner Entertainment has several trademarks on "wizard of oz". They probably didn't account for PM dealers though.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Sun Feb 21, 2021 1:13 pm

Best Gold Eagle (or Buffalo) deal = Random Year 1 oz Buffalo for $1,928 (7.7% over spot) from https://silvergoldbull.com/1oz-prior-ye ... xOfDB8WXww

Best fractional gold deal = 10 gram Perth Mint bar for $614 (7.0% over spot) from https://www.apmex.com/product/57162/10- ... prices.com

Cheapest quality gold (that isn't a large amount) = 1 oz gold Lion bar for $1,842 (2.8% over spot) from https://www.scottsdalemint.com/product/ ... -cast-bar/

Best overall = Scottsdale mint bar, no question.

FWIW - I have purchased from all the of these companies and trust them fully.

Bonus best silver deal - 1 oz random silver rounds for $32.06 (16.5% over spot) from https://monumentmetals.com/1-oz-999-sil ... prices.com


What am I buying this week? - Nothing. When the tax return money comes in, hopefully this week, I'll grab another 2 or 3 1oz bar from the Scottsdale mint. New wife and baby discount on 2020 taxes plus the "stimulus" bonuses.

Gold premiums are really going up. Something is going on. Get it now while it's cheap.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Sat Feb 27, 2021 2:17 pm

Best Gold Eagle (or Buffalo) deal = Random Year 1 oz Eagle for $1,901 (9.1% over spot) from https://bullionexchanges.com/1-oz-ameri ... prices.com

Best fractional gold deal = 10 gram Perth Mint bar for $601 (7.3% over spot) from https://www.apmex.com/product/57162/10- ... prices.com

Cheapest quality gold (that isn't a large amount) = 1 oz gold Lion bar for $1,793 (3% over spot) from https://www.scottsdalemint.com/product/ ... -cast-bar/

Best overall = Scottsdale mint bar, no question.

FWIW - I have purchased from all the of these companies and trust them fully.

Bonus best silver deal - 10 oz random silver bars for $315.03 (17.1% over spot) from https://silvergoldbull.com/10oz-pure-si ... xOfDB8WXww


What am I buying this week? - I bought another Scottsdale mint bar, my second.

$1,793 for an ounce of gold when 30-year bonds are paying 2.4% and the S&P is $3,800 seems like a real bargain my friends. My gut tells me people will regret not buying now and the next leg up for gold will be huge. Time will tell...........

Or silver will be the real winner. The price of real silver is completely disconnecting from paper silver. Paper silver might be a better gamble here. I just think the risk there is total loss OR continued divergence of the physical price. Almost all the silver I've ever bought was for less than a 10% premium and in many cases less than 5%. For years every dealer would let you buy 10oz at spot as a one-time offer and they had tons of deals on generic for 39 cents or 59 cents per ounce over spot. Hell I bought random year Eagles for $1.79 over spot before and in the $3's last year. If paper silver price loses relevance, so will the idea of a "premium". It will just be "the price" and some types of physical silver are truly better than others for specific reasons.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Tortoise » Sat Feb 27, 2021 3:45 pm

Wow... so premiums are creeping up toward 10% for the best deals on Gold Eagles and Buffalos.

The last time I remember seeing premiums this high was in late 2008 right after the implosion of Lehman Brothers and the government’s massive TARP bailout.

These super-high premiums seem to indicate that the retail bullion market is anticipating some very choppy waters ahead due to lockdown destruction and massive money printing.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by whatchamacallit » Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:24 pm

I am not buying any myself but I found these delayed delivery bars.

10 oz $304.25

https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/10-oz- ... ne/dd/1860
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by jatwell » Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:54 pm

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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by SomeDude » Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:46 am

jatwell wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:54 pm
$14/oz over spot: https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/produc ... m-gold-bar
Thats an incredible price but it is 3.2oz.

Its going to be a lot less liquid if you ever intend to sell so your bid/ask spread might be higher.

Still, if you've got $5,700 to plunk down on gold it's a good deal.

I've never bought from Gainesville so i don't recommend them. I might buy something small though to try them out as they often have deals.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by Kriegsspiel » Mon Mar 01, 2021 6:47 pm

SomeDude wrote:
Mon Mar 01, 2021 2:46 am
jatwell wrote:
Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:54 pm
$14/oz over spot: https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/produc ... m-gold-bar
Thats an incredible price but it is 3.2oz.

Its going to be a lot less liquid if you ever intend to sell so your bid/ask spread might be higher.

Still, if you've got $5,700 to plunk down on gold it's a good deal.

I've never bought from Gainesville so i don't recommend them. I might buy something small though to try them out as they often have deals.
When I looked, the $14/oz over spot only applied to orders of $56,000+.
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
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Re: Best Deal right now on Gold

Post by jatwell » Mon Mar 01, 2021 7:17 pm

Fair, I think for one is $16 an oz over spot. Might give it a shot.
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