Ray Dalio - Paradigm Shifts article recommending gold

[Tyler]

Hero worship also has a large part to play. Because Buffett or Bogle said something it not only must be taken as blind truth, but is something that they must fight to the death to defend. Too many people fail to do their own research. They find one or two heroes, adopt all their opinions blindly, and then argue those second hand opinions as if they are fact. There is good and bad to heroes. The good is they put people at least on a reasonable path. The bad of them is evident in the misinterpretation of opinion as fact, and the dogmatic closing of the mind to alternative opinions.

True. And the funny thing about hero worship is that sometimes the popular vision of the hero contradicts the hero's actual views. Even Jack Bogle recommended gold in a portfolio, and the fascinating thing is that some people have so convinced themselves that gold is against his investing philosophy that they refuse to believe it even when presented with video evidence.

[pmward]

Hero worship also has a large part to play. Because Buffett or Bogle said something it not only must be taken as blind truth, but is something that they must fight to the death to defend. Too many people fail to do their own research. They find one or two heroes, adopt all their opinions blindly, and then argue those second hand opinions as if they are fact. There is good and bad to heroes. The good is they put people at least on a reasonable path. The bad of them is evident in the misinterpretation of opinion as fact, and the dogmatic closing of the mind to alternative opinions.

True. And the funny thing about hero worship is that sometimes the popular vision of the hero contradicts the hero's actual views. Even Jack Bogle recommended gold in a portfolio, and the fascinating thing is that some people have so convinced themselves that gold is against his investing philosophy that they refuse to believe it even when presented with video evidence.

Yeah, for the simple mind that blindly wants to follow heroes, it becomes hard to differentiate the "truth" when you have two heroes that have an opposing opinion on something like Bogle and Buffet on gold. Another example would be the International debate. When Bogle rejects international, but the Vanguard organization says that people should be at global market cap weight, some people lose it and cannot make heads or tails of what way is "right" and what way is "wrong" (quotation added because the real answer is subjective and not black or white). So this leads to an interesting situation where people that worship the same heroes, and should be best friends, instead spend their time arguing and fighting to the death in 20 page flamefest threads over how to interpret between this discrepancy. Bogleheads can be an entertaining read at times, for sure.

[dualstow]

True. And the funny thing about hero worship is that sometimes the popular vision of the hero contradicts the hero's actual views. Even Jack Bogle recommended gold in a portfolio, and the fascinating thing is that some people have so convinced themselves that gold is against his investing philosophy that they refuse to believe it even when presented with video evidence.

Dare I say it — we have a dedicated thread for religion — the same thing happened to Jesus. It’s like a whole chapter in Brothers Karamazov.

[Kbg]

True. And the funny thing about hero worship is that sometimes the popular vision of the hero contradicts the hero's actual views. Even Jack Bogle recommended gold in a portfolio, and the fascinating thing is that some people have so convinced themselves that gold is against his investing philosophy that they refuse to believe it even when presented with video evidence.

Dare I say it — we have a dedicated thread for religion — the same thing happened to Jesus. It’s like a whole chapter in Brothers Karamazov.

There is a thread over there called Hedgefundies Excellent Adventure that is WAY long, but has some very good research and simulations in it. In summary, they've been analyzing a 40% UPRO/60% TMF portfolio extensively and someone mentioned gold was an excellent diversifier...I had to smile. They are actually getting pretty close to what I've been posting on in the VP section for quite a while.