The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:35 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:16 pm
Yup. Sorry, dualstow -- gold spot is still below $2000. You're looking at the gold futures price for June. :)
The only reason I don’t report spot is because it’s just easier to catch the futures price in the news without even looking for it. I’ll tag it with “futures” in the future.
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:27 pm
The gold price is on my Home Screen at all times. ;D
— The Gold Screen Room —
Do you look at the price relative the Canadian dollar, too, or is it not significantly different?
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:31 pm

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:35 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:16 pm
Yup. Sorry, dualstow -- gold spot is still below $2000. You're looking at the gold futures price for June. :)
The only reason I don’t report spot is because it’s just easier to catch the futures price in the news without even looking for it. I’ll tag it with “futures” in the future.
Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:27 pm
The gold price is on my Home Screen at all times. ;D
— The Gold Screen Room —
Do you look at the price relative the Canadian dollar, too, or is it not significantly different?
I always just look at the USD amount... it makes my discussions, especially my online ones that are predominantly with US folks, much less confusing!
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:32 pm

seajay wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:58 pm
GC=F .... is Comex market gold =F signifies the Futures market

Gold Comex Futures

Which is different to Spot (instant delivery).
Yeah for some reason I can't get spot on the iOS stocks app. The closest I've found was the futures rate.

*shrug*
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:38 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 4:32 pm
seajay wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 2:58 pm
GC=F .... is Comex market gold =F signifies the Futures market

Gold Comex Futures

Which is different to Spot (instant delivery).
Yeah for some reason I can't get spot on the iOS stocks app. The closest I've found was the futures rate.

*shrug*
I used to use a dedicated spot price app, several actually, but they kept breaking when the operating system was updated.
I only look at spot if I’m about to buy.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:21 am

I tend to just look on a periodic basis, might buy, or sell, at any time ... if the price is right. In effect look when I have the time to potentially follow that through with trade(s).

Image

Coin/gold dealers spreads tend to range, if they have much gold on their books their sell/your buy price might move closer to spot, whilst their buy/your sell price moves deeper away from spot. At other times when they have low levels of gold and demand is rising they shift spreads the other way. For low churn/demand/supply items the spreads can be very wide.

Selectively bought and later sold at relatively good levels and there can be opportunities to have both bought and sold with in effect 0% dealer spread having been paid. Dealers don't want to be out-of-stock, nor have too much gold that's not moving.

Some weeks back for instance and the above dealer was buying Britannia one ounce gold coins at +1% above spot, along with having Out-of-Stock flags against their Britannia coin listings. At other times, maybe after the dealer having made a large purchase, they might have their sell price at 1% above spot, their buy price at 2% below spot (a.k.a they had enough already, didn't want to buy more, were looking to sell what they already had).

Holding liquid paper gold (gold ETF) facilitates keeping overall actual desired level of gold exposure aligned. So if for instance you hold $100K of gold ETF, $200K of physical gold, $300K total gold, but then buy $10K more worth of physical gold, align that with selling $10K of gold ETF ... and you still have $300K of combined/total gold.
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:41 am

dualstow wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:35 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:16 pm
Yup. Sorry, dualstow -- gold spot is still below $2000. You're looking at the gold futures price for June. :)
The only reason I don’t report spot is because it’s just easier to catch the futures price in the news without even looking for it. I’ll tag it with “futures” in the future.
That's a possible Option :)

Some time (years) back I did consider Options and looking to take physical delivery at/following expiry as a possible method to secure a chunk of physical gold. But it was too inconvenient to do so in practice for me.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 04, 2023 11:15 am

seajay wrote:
Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:41 am

Some time (years) back I did consider Options and looking to take physical delivery at/following expiry as a possible method to secure a chunk of physical gold. But it was too inconvenient to do so in practice for me.
I just to be clear, I always buy physical and I do check spot before buying physical, but futures is what gets reported so that’s what I pass on in the sig and in posts.

But I admit I totally glossed over Tortoise’s question. when he asked “where did you find the spot price” I read “where did you find” and posted my answer.

Laziness on both counts. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:05 pm

Sorry, dualstow, I didn’t mean to be “that guy” and get nit-picky about something silly. So I retract my original question, which created quite a long tangent. :)

Like you, I typically use GC=F ticker as a rough proxy of the gold spot price since that’s the closest thing I can find on my stocks app. And usually, it seems to be reasonably close to spot.

But yesterday there seemed to be a much bigger difference between GC=F and spot, and that’s when it became clearer to me that they’re really not the same thing. I guess GC=F will usually tend to be higher than spot to account for carrying costs, interest rate, etc.

If the headlines use GC=F to refer to “the price of gold”, then that’s good enough for me. :)
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:20 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:05 pm
Sorry, dualstow, I didn’t mean to be “that guy” and get nit-picky about something silly. So I retract my original question, which created quite a long tangent. :)

Like you, I typically use GC=F ticker as a rough proxy of the gold spot price since that’s the closest thing I can find on my stocks app. And usually, it seems to be reasonably close to spot.

But yesterday there seemed to be a much bigger difference between GC=F and spot, and that’s when it became clearer to me that they’re really not the same thing. I guess GC=F will usually tend to be higher than spot to account for carrying costs, interest rate, etc.

If the headlines use GC=F to refer to “the price of gold”, then that’s good enough for me. :)
Ha, not at all Tortoise! You were very clear. i’m the one who spaced on your full question and answered an unasked one. I’m actually glad you pointed it out because I post the (futures) price so often, but without context.

When/if I have more ounces, the difference will seem like a bigger deal to me. Right now i have about 60 and can’t imagine selling. With the spot price being what it is, I have to get over the psychological resistance to buying. of course, when it gets too low, i have to get over the psychological resistance to buying. O0

Hope things are going well with the kid.
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:27 pm

P.S. Spot price at ajpm is 2020!
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Mark Leavy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1950
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm
Location: US Citizen, Permanent Traveler

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:48 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Tue Apr 04, 2023 1:05 pm
Like you, I typically use GC=F ticker as a rough proxy of the gold spot price since that’s the closest thing I can find on my stocks app. And usually, it seems to be reasonably close to spot.

But yesterday there seemed to be a much bigger difference between GC=F and spot, and that’s when it became clearer to me that they’re really not the same thing. I guess GC=F will usually tend to be higher than spot to account for carrying costs, interest rate, etc.
The futures and spot used to be fairly close because short term interest rates were essentially zero. The futures price is approximately equal to spot plus the interest on the number of months remaining in the contract - which is now real money.

If you have the ability to see currency prices, I like to use the XAUUSD ticker for spot price. It feels like the right way to think about the price of gold. It is just the currency conversion from real money to USD 8)

The USD was down today when compared with gold. It was also down today compared to the Euro and the British pound.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:18 pm

That’s useful!
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Wed Apr 05, 2023 7:05 am

The time value (interest rate) used to be based on LIBOR, but that was found to be being manipulated so more recently the Overnight Bank Funding Rate is perhaps the better guide nowadays

Image

Image

Hold physical gold, short the Futures and excluding costs that is the type of yield that such a position might have paid.

I recall at times (years back) that LIBOR would sometimes disconnect significantly from base rates, spike sharply up, which would have tended to be good times to have made such a 'arbitrage' play.
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:40 am

Mark Leavy wrote:
Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:48 pm
If you have the ability to see currency prices, I like to use the XAUUSD ticker for spot price. It feels like the right way to think about the price of gold. It is just the currency conversion from real money to USD 8)
The iPhone stocks app doesn't find that ticker symbol, but I did find an interesting one: XAUT-USD ("Tether Gold USD").

According to its web site, it looks like it's a digital token backed by physical gold. And from what I can see, its current price matches gold's spot price very closely. But its market cap is only $500M, which is pretty small compared to (for example) GLD and IAU.
User avatar
Smith1776
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3501
Joined: Fri Apr 21, 2017 6:01 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Smith1776 » Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:13 pm

All time highs
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
User avatar
seajay
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 430
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2021 11:11 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by seajay » Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:25 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:13 pm
All time highs
>:D Would have to rise to 2460/ounce to compare to the September 2011 high (1855/ounce price 33% inflation (dollar devaluation) since then) >:D

Is presently comparable to the 1979 highs (in real terms).
User avatar
Mark Leavy
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1950
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2012 10:20 pm
Location: US Citizen, Permanent Traveler

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Mark Leavy » Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:39 pm

seajay wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 6:25 pm
Smith1776 wrote:
Wed Apr 05, 2023 12:13 pm
All time highs
>:D Would have to rise to 2460/ounce to compare to the September 2011 high (1855/ounce price 33% inflation (dollar devaluation) since then) >:D

Is presently comparable to the 1979 highs (in real terms).
Thank you seajay.

And even in nominal terms, the posted high was 2075 in August 2020.

However. Smithers, I admire and share your enthusiasm.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:32 pm

230pm EST

spot price 2040 (AJPM)
futures 2056 (cnet)

in US$/oz
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am

2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
Tortoise
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2751
Joined: Sat Nov 06, 2010 2:35 am

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Tortoise » Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm

dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
User avatar
Kriegsspiel
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4052
Joined: Sun Sep 16, 2012 5:28 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kriegsspiel » Thu May 04, 2023 3:22 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
THIS PLEASES ME
You there, Ephialtes. May you live forever.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri May 05, 2023 3:51 pm

;D it has been a long time, hasn’t it
RIP Marcello Gandini
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14225
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu May 25, 2023 7:26 am

The featured inner-pages article in today’s ‘Financial Times’ is How long will the gold boom last?

It begins thusly:
in a high-security vault in London’s Mayfair, where the glass is thick enough to resist automatic gunfire and four control rooms keep watch around the clock, some of the world’s wealthiest individuals have been rushing to store gold.
RIP Marcello Gandini
welderwannabe
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 104
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 12:53 pm

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by welderwannabe » Mon May 29, 2023 2:17 pm

Kriegsspiel wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 3:22 pm
Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
THIS PLEASES ME
Except I am so out of balance I'm unable to buy gold at the moment...buying gold is what pleases me. Haha.
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 4456
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon May 29, 2023 2:52 pm

Tortoise wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 2:08 pm
dualstow wrote:
Thu May 04, 2023 11:58 am
2060 futures
2050+ spot price (AJPM)
1PM EST
For the first time in a long while, gold is the best-performing asset YTD in the PP. It's even beating LASAGNE! ;)
well now we have a total market fund or s&p fund up 10%. qqq up 31%

TLT UP 2.67

sgov 1.87

gold up 6.67

and sgov a
Post Reply