Some support for investing in Gold

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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vnatale
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Some support for investing in Gold

Post by vnatale » Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:14 pm

Some support for investing in Gold!

Is It Time to Invest in Gold?

Stock market volatility has given investors gold fever. If you chase the rally, don’t overdo it.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/inves ... -gold.html



An older article before the even greater run up in price. But still makes the case for SOME investment in gold.

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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vnatale
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by vnatale » Sun Sep 06, 2020 6:49 pm

How Oil and Gold Help Your Portfolio

Owning gold or oil — or both — can even out the volatility of a stock-heavy portfolio.

https://www.kiplinger.com/article/inves ... CIPIENT_ID
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Sun Sep 06, 2020 7:25 pm

Gold is gold, no need to belabor that here. But FWIW XOM is paying damn near 9% dividend. And they are a so called dividend aristocrat. (Be in the S&P 500- Have 25+ consecutive years of dividend increases- Meet certain minimum size & liquidity requirements)
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:48 am

the dividend aristocrats -what constitutes this group changes all the time so get ready for lots of selling trying to keep up as they get bumped and replaced AFTER THE FACT THEY DID NOT LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS . you could be behind the curve here very easily .

these dividend aristocrats are not somehow immune to all the things that effect company's and stocks . Just like other companies, their outcomes change.

in 2009 there were 52 stocks that met the group’s strict criteria.

As of 2012, there were 51.

But of those 51, 13 were different than the original set. So over the course of just 3 years, there was a 27% change in the group’s composition.

in fact going back to 1989's list :

Of those 26, 5 are still on the list today, ten were removed because they either cut or froze their dividend, four were removed for an unknown reason, and the remainder were aquired at some point. So at least ten of the 26 had an outcome that is different from the assumption of dividend growth every year through thick and thin.
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by vnatale » Mon Sep 07, 2020 6:49 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:48 am
the dividend aristocrats -what constitutes this group changes all the time so get ready for lots of selling trying to keep up as they get bumped and replaced AFTER THE FACT THEY DID NOT LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS . you could be behind the curve here very easily .

these dividend aristocrats are not somehow immune to all the things that effect company's and stocks . Just like other companies, their outcomes change.

in 2009 there were 52 stocks that met the group’s strict criteria.

As of 2012, there were 51.

But of those 51, 13 were different than the original set. So over the course of just 3 years, there was a 27% change in the group’s composition.

in fact going back to 1989's list :

Of those 26, 5 are still on the list today, ten were removed because they either cut or froze their dividend, four were removed for an unknown reason, and the remainder were aquired at some point. So at least ten of the 26 had an outcome that is different from the assumption of dividend growth every year through thick and thin.
Thank you for these hard facts!

Vinny
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Ad Orientem
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by Ad Orientem » Mon Sep 07, 2020 10:24 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Sep 07, 2020 2:48 am
the dividend aristocrats -what constitutes this group changes all the time so get ready for lots of selling trying to keep up as they get bumped and replaced AFTER THE FACT THEY DID NOT LIVE UP TO EXPECTATIONS . you could be behind the curve here very easily .

these dividend aristocrats are not somehow immune to all the things that effect company's and stocks . Just like other companies, their outcomes change.

in 2009 there were 52 stocks that met the group’s strict criteria.

As of 2012, there were 51.

But of those 51, 13 were different than the original set. So over the course of just 3 years, there was a 27% change in the group’s composition.

in fact going back to 1989's list :

Of those 26, 5 are still on the list today, ten were removed because they either cut or froze their dividend, four were removed for an unknown reason, and the remainder were aquired at some point. So at least ten of the 26 had an outcome that is different from the assumption of dividend growth every year through thick and thin.

Your point is well made. Dividend paying stocks are not bonds. Even companies with a long history of paying reliable dividends have frozen or cut theirs. Royal Dutch Shell just cut theirs for the first time since 1945! That said, I am not looking at XOM purely on the basis of their dividend. I see it as being well positioned for growth in value over the intermediate term future. The dividend is a bonus. But fwiw I think XOM's dividend is fairly safe for the near to intermediate term. The company just moved to slash its capital expenses by 30% in a move obviously intended at least in part to reassure anyone concerned about its dividend. And while it is certainly true that even dividend aristocrats will freeze or cut dividends if the need is urgent, most would be reluctant to do so because it almost always results in a near term hit to the stock price. Cutting a dividend after decades of raising sends a message that the company has problems. It also forces some shareholders to sell the stock, especially large funds that are restricted to holding safe dividend paying equities. If interested there is a good discussion of XOM here...

https://www.suredividend.com/dividend-a ... -list/#xom

Full disclosure: I currently hold no positions related to XOM but am considering buying some in the near future.
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Sep 07, 2020 1:41 pm

I would sooner buy cvx than xom ......I traded both for years ....I would only own them a day or two .....I have no interest in oil stocks as investments , just quick trades
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by seajay » Tue Aug 09, 2022 7:43 pm

vnatale wrote:
Thu Sep 03, 2020 5:14 pm
Some support for investing in Gold!

Is It Time to Invest in Gold?

Stock market volatility has given investors gold fever. If you chase the rally, don’t overdo it.
July/August 1999 was the more attractive time to buy gold. Dow/Gold ratio was high (stocks expensive/gold cheap), in the UK you could buy a one ounce Britannia for GBP 157, just 57 above its legal tender GBP 100 value, so the most you could lose was around a third (lower price than 100, just spend coins as 100 legal tender value).

Over the next 15 years to 2011, and gold price increased at a 14.6% annualized real rate (17.5% nominal).
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Re: Some support for investing in Gold

Post by Smith1776 » Tue Aug 23, 2022 4:37 am

Gold is an asset whose analysis just isn’t amenable to the traditional spreadsheet. The more and more I reflect on the asset, the more I conclude that that seems to be true.

To see gold’s purpose one must be a student of economic history rather than statistics.
I still find the James Rickards portfolio fascinating.
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