The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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glennds
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:33 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am
It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.
Not yet at least. Have you (or anyone) looked at historical data on gold's responsiveness to changing economic conditions? Weeks? Months?
I'm torn on whether to join you and be bugged or be patient and give it more time to react.

When gold rallies, it's because capital is being re-deployed into gold that had been previously deployed elsewhere (stocks, maybe bonds). Is there a purgatory period where capital sits on the sidelines in cash while investors re-assess what to do? Maybe we're in that period. Maybe that period always occurs in the transition. Sometimes I think Budd's frustration is really an expectation of immediate response.This might be why HB recommended not looking at the portfolio frequently, and maybe no less than annually.

This is the first time I have experienced an inflationary period as a PP investor, so I don't have the benefit of first hand experience. I'm watching it closely too. Gold rallied like hell in 2008-2011 which I would have thought was a deflationary environment. Plus the US Dollar index rallied at that time too, which should be an inverse indicator to gold really.

I don't yet know what to say. There must be some kind of way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief.
Last edited by glennds on Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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vnatale
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:33 am

Kbg wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 9:15 am

It is...one thing that's bugging me though. I monitor short term asset correlations pretty closely and gold is not going the direction we would like it to.



Not yet at least. Have you (or anyone) looked at historical data on gold's responsiveness to changing economic conditions? Weeks? Months?
I'm torn on whether to join you and be bugged or be patient and give it more time to react.

When gold rallies, it's because capital is being re-deployed into gold that had been previously deployed elsewhere (stocks, maybe bonds). Is there a purgatory period where capital sits on the sidelines in cash while investors re-assess what to do? Maybe we're in that period.

This is the first time I have experienced an inflationary period as a PP investor, so I don't have the benefit of first hand experience. I'm watching it closely too. Gold rallied like hell in 2008-2011 which I would have thought was a deflationary environment.

There must be some kind of way out of here, said the Joker to the Thief.


Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?

And, your first paragraph reflects what was in my mind earlier today. What is the lag time between conditions and when gold reacts?
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
glennds
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by glennds » Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:45 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am


Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?
Vinny that's like asking which is my preference, my son or my daughter? Couldn't live without either.
Two geniuses.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by vnatale » Wed Jun 15, 2022 12:36 pm

glennds wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:45 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 11:42 am



Which version is your preference? Hendrix or Dylan?



Vinny that's like asking which is my preference, my son or my daughter? Couldn't live without either.
Two geniuses.


Easy for me. Dylan wrote great songs that were done quite well by others. However, his voice was bad to start with and has progressed to atrocious.
Above provided by: Vinny, who always says: "I only regret that I have but one lap to give to my cats." AND "I'm a more-is-more person."
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Kbg » Wed Jun 15, 2022 4:44 pm

I don’t have any references at hand, but there are some good academic studies on gold. Stay away from studies from purveyors of gold however.
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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:31 pm

Gold explodes when people lose confidence, especially in the currency. Apparently that hasn’t happened yet, this time.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm

Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore
https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says- ... -gold-ore/
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
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Desert
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Thu Jun 16, 2022 8:34 am

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm
Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore
https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says- ... -gold-ore/
That's a lot of gold ore. In the article they claim:
Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore.
The total mass of refined gold that presently exists in the world is a little over 200,000 tons, so that amount is very significant. It would be interesting to know the expected $/ounce projected to extract it though.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Jun 16, 2022 11:05 am

I guess we don’t need to find that gold-laden asteroid after all.
Then again, all this gold in Uganda will probably go straight to China.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
whatchamacallit
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:05 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm
Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore
https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says- ... -gold-ore/
Story sounds suspicious.

Found this article from last year that says otherwise.
But the East African nation itself is not rich in resources. Much of this gold comes from neighboring countries, spirited across the border by shadowy smuggling networks. Uganda’s central bank estimated in 2019 that only about 10 percent of the gold flowing out of Uganda was actually mined in the country
https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/art ... s-bustling
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Jun 17, 2022 3:32 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Thu Jun 16, 2022 6:05 pm
dualstow wrote:
Wed Jun 15, 2022 6:35 pm
Uganda says exploration results show it has 31 million tonnes of gold ore
https://www.mining.com/web/uganda-says- ... -gold-ore/
Story sounds suspicious.
Agree with whatchamacallit that the story is probably way off in some way. Ugandan miners having found more gold that what currently exists (mined, above ground, etc.) doesn't pass the sniff test... along the lines of, "Did I say 320,158 tonnes? I meant 3.20158 tonnes. My bad!!"
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 17, 2022 5:51 am

I haven’t watched it, but there’s a video on youtube called
Questions raised about quantity of Uganda’s gold exports
from June 10, 2022

Also, the story of the find hasn’t been picked up by a major paper.
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Jack Jones » Fri Jun 17, 2022 6:08 am

Muyita said an estimated 320,158 tonnes of refined gold could be extracted from the 31 million tonnes of ore.
Could be

My understanding of gold mining is that the extractability of gold varies. So they may be saying that if money was no object, they could extract that much. But how much is economically viable for extraction is another matter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Fri Jun 17, 2022 8:35 am

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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 17, 2022 1:36 pm

I’m kind of glad it’s turning out to be BS. I don’t want that amount of gold ore to be discovered. At least not all at once.

In other news, I just discovered 10 fifillion dollars worth of crypto on my desktop computer. And it’s for sale!
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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Desert
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Desert » Fri Jun 17, 2022 2:41 pm

Yeah, that gold story was too bad to be true!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Mon Jun 20, 2022 8:06 pm

Some more on Uganda gold discovery.

https://youtu.be/wNSZ_VIHlWk
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Tue Jun 21, 2022 6:44 am

Switzerland Imports Russian Gold for First Time Since War
More than 3 tons of gold was shipped to refining hub in May
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-invasion
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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dualstow
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 24, 2022 1:44 pm

Recieved a “random year” sale krug in the mail which turned out to be a shiny 2022.
Still, I wouldn’t have ordered it if I had known so many surprise expenses would pop up this season. Joys of home ownership. :o
let 2022 be the year of GOLD
Supreme Court overturns Roe v Wade. You heard it here third, or fourth
$100 million worth of crypto has been stolen in another major hack - cnbc
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