The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Sun Nov 28, 2021 9:59 am

dockinGA,

I love MJ because he makes me question what I am doing all the time which is good.

He's had (we've had), 13 years now of relentless up in the stock market. Unprecedented I think (maybe I am wrong). I mean look at the chart.

At the same time, of course depending on your start point, gold at least, compares favorably.

The slope of that stock rise line is pretty darn steep right now. Maybe they've figured it all out and stocks will never fall again. Maybe MJ will have an average 12+% return for years and I'll only have 6%, but I know I can sleep at night (not saying he can't!) whereas in the past when I was trading and mainly 100% stocks I'd have anxiety attacks everytime there was a dip.

And... in the chart below, if anything, gold has a pretty good looking cup and handle...if you're into that sort of analysis.

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:14 am

why do people here assume i am stock heavy …i am far from it …



looking at my own portfolio after the buying on the dip friday and topping off the positions in what fell

i show :

gold 5%

commodities 5% (etf dbc)

bitcoin (gbtc) 5%

equities 20% ( fidelity contra , voo , and two other mutual funds )

fidelity strategic real return 9% ( hybrid fund consisting of reits , floating rate loans , inflation proof bonds and commodities ) geared for moderate not high inflation .

very short term treasuries 23% ( shv ) if rates should fall you will get a little kicker unlike a money market which goes lower

total bond fund 7%

hyg high yield bonds 6%

cash 20% money market , if rates rise you will get a kicker unlike shv which is the opposite

i am weighted more for inflation and prosperity then recession or depression but the large short term bond position provides lots of dry powder if i am inclined to take advantage of a large drop ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:46 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:14 am
why do people here assume i am stock heavy …i am far from it …



looking at my own portfolio after the buying on the dip friday and topping off the positions in what fell

i show :

gold 5%

commodities 5% (etf dbc)

bitcoin (gbtc) 5%

equities 20% ( fidelity contra , voo , and two other mutual funds )

fidelity strategic real return 9% ( hybrid fund consisting of reits , floating rate loans , inflation proof bonds and commodities ) geared for moderate not high inflation .

very short term treasuries 23% ( shv ) if rates should fall you will get a little kicker unlike a money market which goes lower

total bond fund 7%

hyg high yield bonds 6%

cash 20% money market , if rates rise you will get a kicker unlike shv which is the opposite

i am weighted more for inflation and prosperity then recession or depression but the large short term bond position provides lots of dry powder if i am inclined to take advantage of a large drop ..
This is a good post.

Perhaps if more of your posts were like this we would not be under the impression that you're stock heavy. I think many here, myself included, also think that you might be an investor that changes your asset allocation much more frequently than most of the other people on this site might do.
How long have you had this particular portfolio? Also, do you have any information on what your performance has been over the last 12 months and/or YTD? Longer time periods?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm

I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds

I will guess and say up about 12-% as a return Actually more but I have a lot of cash as we were going to buy a condo but changed our minds so if i count all the cash and very short term treasuries i guess about 12%
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pugchief » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:32 pm

@MJ
So you're 43% cash between STT and MMF?
Damn, that's a lot of cash.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:50 pm

yes it is ..

we were going to buy a condo in westchester and decided to put it on hold ..our renting in queens is a far better deal .

since bonds were getting hit and i didnt want to commit the condo money long term we just held on to it ..turns out cash did the best of all the bonds .. with the model doing as well as it did even with the high cash being counted i figured i will keep the powder dry..

i used some friday to add a bit
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:25 am

crazy bounce back in gbtc bitcoin , up almost 8% ,commodities up nice too .. gold is my laggard .

more and more i am liking sharing my gold budget with bitcoin and commodities…while they are all considered inflation hedges they seem to respond differently
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:06 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm
I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds
My PP, after 2020, as measured in very early 2021 was up 20.07% for the year of 2020. I believe everyone had a decent year, after the earlier fright.

You are saying that you were "stung" with the PP but the PP had a great 2020 year, no?

So are you saying, given the numbers below, that you were prescient in Jan of 2021 about inflation, when it was still trending as previous and would for at least another month or two?

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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:57 pm

i wasn't in it all of 2020 ….

i got in around the election in nov after doing very well in my usual models and wanting to preserve those gains .

gold and tlt were in the toilet for me with big dollar losses ..not only that but the model i left for it was up nicely even more so over all it cost me a pretty penny .

the pp was down for me from nov to january , once inflation fears hit it was doing poorly in comparison…

i show the pp up ytd about 3.50% not counting today. i am up about 13% with today.

that is a few hundred thousand dollars difference for me …that is a huge difference vs if i stayed in the pp
Last edited by mathjak107 on Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:24 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 2:08 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 12:06 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:08 pm
I started this last January when I broke up the pp and we had the inflation spike starting .

It is basically my insight model but with an inflation hedge and I lightened up the bond side with fsrrx.

after getting stung in the pp i wanted to be as interest rate dependent free as i could without totally avoiding bonds
My PP, after 2020, as measured in very early 2021 was up 20.07% for the year of 2020. I believe everyone had a decent year, after the earlier fright.

You are saying that you were "stung" with the PP but the PP had a great 2020 year, no?

So are you saying, given the numbers below, that you were prescient in Jan of 2021 about inflation, when it was still trending as previous and would for at least another month or two?

Image
i show pp only up 16.5 in 2020 and up about 3.50% this year

tlt 18.5
gld 24.81

vti 21.03

shy 3
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Mon Nov 29, 2021 3:13 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:57 pm
i wasn't in it all of 2020 ….

i got in around the election in nov after doing very well in my usual models and wanting to preserve those gains .

gold and tlt were in the toilet for me with big dollar losses ..not only that but the model i left for it was up nicely even more so over all it cost me a pretty penny .

the pp was down for me from nov to january , once inflation fears hit it was doing poorly in comparison…

i show the pp up ytd about 3.50% not counting today. i am up about 13% with today.

that is a few hundred thousand dollars difference for me …that is a huge difference vs if i stayed in the pp
Congratulations on your investment prowess!

I view the pp as being Uber conservative... I think of it along the lines of a savings account, which pays a little return. Even Uber conservative amongst other passive portfolios.

PP has taught me a mindset to Branch out from. I see it as safe harbor, when the storms come.

Pp remains the core which I tweak.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:16 pm

i kind of do the same thing .

i have a very conservative core portfolio which i use being i am retired but i try to mold it to better for the bigger picture .

it is the most conservative model in the insight portfolio but i add my own little spin like better inflation protection which i feel is more diversified than just gold and updated with some bitcoin and commodities…
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by pp4me » Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:33 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 4:16 pm
i kind of do the same thing .

i have a very conservative core portfolio which i use being i am retired but i try to mold it to better for the bigger picture .

it is the most conservative model in the insight portfolio but i add my own little spin like better inflation protection which i feel is more diversified than just gold and updated with some bitcoin and commodities…
I decided to do give it a try with TIPS with a sizeable amount of my PP cash even though the PP recommendation is to avoid them. Didn't seem like a very risky thing to me though some others thought so.

I was very disappointed at first and was ready to abandon the experiment but lately it has been turning green. Not impressive returns by any means but a lot better than current cash alterntives. If it keeps up I will decide it was a brilliant strategy that I can brag about.

No idea if it will continue in that direction, of course. If inflation keeps up I don't see why not even though my chrystal ball stopped working a long time ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:08 pm

tips are still bonds and can lose money if rates go up ..that will make the interest rate sensitivity even worse when coupled with long term bonds ….

i can see experimenting with tips instead of long term treasuries but not both together unless i was splitting the long term bonds in half
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dockinGA » Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:11 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:57 pm
i wasn't in it all of 2020 ….

i got in around the election in nov after doing very well in my usual models and wanting to preserve those gains .

gold and tlt were in the toilet for me with big dollar losses ..not only that but the model i left for it was up nicely even more so over all it cost me a pretty penny .

the pp was down for me from nov to january , once inflation fears hit it was doing poorly in comparison…

i show the pp up ytd about 3.50% not counting today. i am up about 13% with today.

that is a few hundred thousand dollars difference for me …that is a huge difference vs if i stayed in the pp
I think I've asked this before, but here goes.

You jumped into the PP in November, and bailed in January. That's only 2-3 months. This begs a series of questions:
1. Why did you get in? What changed in just a couple of months that made you get out? Why are you so confident in your investing predictions, when this one series of events would seem to show that you get it wrong (at least sometimes)?
2. It seems like you're somewhat an active trader. When you look at your investing returns from the past do you consider the impact of taxes? Obviously this year you've done much better than the PP, so taxes will not even come close to bringing you back down to PP level returns, but over the long run those taxes do tend to add up.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:28 pm

i jumped in pre election to try to hold on to my nice gains .

what better place then the pp to hang out .

well gold and tlt started to get hammered bad ..

in a blink i was down over 100k …that while the model i left was still wracking up gains to boot .talk about adding insult to injury

the inflation outlook started to look worse and worse and i realized the pp is likely a mistake for me , at least for 2021s outlook .

i decided the interest rate risk and inflation risk was extreme and more then i felt i should have


i am not confident in all my decisions, after all i though the pp would be a safe place to hang out ..well i was wrong .

tlt and gld lost even more from january to now as they are both down ytd .

so my portfolio is conservative enough that even if i am wrong there is nothing that will get devastated ..the only thing i would do is if i see inflation come down i will reduce the portfolio hedge and add another 5-10% equites.

i didnt think gold would be a good gedge in moderate inflation either , which is why i combined it with bitcoin , commodities and fidelity fsrrx strategic real return

all my heavy trading is in my ira so taxes are not a factor , nor are capital gain distributions….

that is the beauty of a retirement account …. it grew to multiple seven figures over the decades between my iras and 401k.

we have fidelity contra in our taxable account with heavy gains but since we closed our real estate LLC we have a lot of carry over write offs from capital costs we couldn't fully take .

we can sell contra , pay zero tax and still have a lot to carry over for years.

i may actually have to do some trading just to use it up eventually
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Mon Nov 29, 2021 6:46 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 5:28 pm
i jumped in pre election to try to hold on to my nice gains .

what better place then the pp to hang out .

well gold and tlt started to get hammered bad ..

in a blink i was down over 100k …that while the model i left was still wracking up gains to boot .talk about adding insult to injury

the inflation outlook started to look worse and worse and i realized the pp is likely a mistake for me , at least for 2021s outlook .

i decided the interest rate risk and inflation risk was extreme and more then i felt i should have


i am not confident in all my decisions, after all i though the pp would be a safe place to hang out ..well i was wrong .

tlt and gld lost even more from january to now as they are both down ytd .

so my portfolio is conservative enough that even if i am wrong there is nothing that will get devastated ..the only thing i would do is if i see inflation come down i will reduce the portfolio hedge and add another 5-10% equites.

i didnt think gold would be a good gedge in moderate inflation either , which is why i combined it with bitcoin , commodities and fidelity fsrrx strategic real return

all my heavy trading is in my ira so taxes are not a factor , nor are capital gain distributions….

that is the beauty of a retirement account …. it grew to multiple seven figures over the decades between my iras and 401k.

we have fidelity contra in our taxable account with heavy gains but since we closed our real estate LLC we have a lot of carry over write offs from capital costs we couldn't fully take .

we can sell contra , pay zero tax and still have a lot to carry over for years.

i may actually have to do some trading just to use it up eventually
I hope people will see this story as how not to invest in the PP. It's a long term plan, not a safe harbor for a couple of months. So you made a wrong short term pick, but then you're confident enough in your next idea to tell us about it a hundred times over? Come on man.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:07 pm

i have had that other portfolio is in use for decades ..i would say that is a long term portfolio.

the only mistake was thinking the pp was going to provide some protection over the election uncertainty.. that was the mistake and misjudgment, it did considerably worse
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Xan » Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:39 pm

mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:07 pm
i have had that other portfolio is in use for decades ..i would say that is a long term portfolio.

the only mistake was thinking the pp was going to provide some protection over the election uncertainty.. that was the mistake and misjudgment, it did considerably worse
It certainly did provide the protection. Any number of things COULD have happened, and you were insured against them. You don't look back at all the money you've "wasted" over the years on your homeowners' insurance because your house didn't burn down, do you?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:08 am

Xan wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:39 pm
mathjak107 wrote:
Mon Nov 29, 2021 7:07 pm
i have had that other portfolio is in use for decades ..i would say that is a long term portfolio.

the only mistake was thinking the pp was going to provide some protection over the election uncertainty.. that was the mistake and misjudgment, it did considerably worse
It certainly did provide the protection. Any number of things COULD have happened, and you were insured against them. You don't look back at all the money you've "wasted" over the years on your homeowners' insurance because your house didn't burn down, do you?


i wouldn't insure against a flood if i lived in a dry area … nor would i insure against a situation with a poor chance of playing out that cost to much vs the odds of playing out or the damge it can inflict if it plays out .

hey best of luck to those who want to weight for low rates and low inflation but as of now and 2022 my opinion is it is very unlikely and not going to ge a good place to be again. so you gotta do what you see fit.

the low equity allocation , the cash and the inflation protection i added is my insurance… we are really no different …the pp is weighted for low rates and low to lower inflation …i am weighted for higher rates and higher inflation …let that sink in when you want to use your insurance analogy .

you are no better protected then i am , we are just weighted in opposite ends when you think about it with pretty equal exposure to equities in the middle . my equities are the same i used in the pp .

i have better coverage at one end where the pp is weak , and you have better coverage at the other end where i have some weakness but to think you are not exposed to risk like i am is just a case of the emperors new clothes .

actually i turned out better insured since with the same equities level my protection assets responded well to inflation and higher rates hence the better return with the same equity level .

for 2020 it looks like i was correct and my insurance paid off well , lets see what 2022 brings.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:15 am

mj,

You used to trade into and out of TLT and gold quite a lot in the past. Have you pulled back from that? Seems like a lot of volatile opportunities lately!
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:28 am

very little trading in tlt this year ..i did some-in gold but when the trend is down more than up it is hard to do. i am still down in gold from the pp
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by murphy_p_t » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:43 am

Looks steady to me.





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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by mathjak107 » Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:47 am

i am close to even but not even yet ..
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:06 am

Just makes me laugh...up 1.4 to down .6 in 20 minutes...don’t care, feels good.
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