The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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stuper1
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm

Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
Hmm. Just guessing but I would think that HB would expect that eight or so years of ZIRP would push stock prices higher... and that he'd just be recommending that people rebalance back to 4X25 whenever the portfolio gets stock heavy. Gold didn't work too well for a couple of decades but he still included it in his mix. Just my two cents.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm

I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm

Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:59 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
I just watch Gold Rush to get a sense of how the market is doing. :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:44 am

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
Maybe, but I feel like I'd be leaving a lot more money on the table by diverting significant effort from my career to managing investments. My expertise is at a much higher level in my career than in investing, so the returns on effort should be correspondingly greater.

If your investing expertise is beyond the amateur level, e.g. you know as much as the professionals on Wall Street, then I guess the above makes sense.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:10 am

FWIW- A gloomy prediction on precious metals. The author believes they could be heading much lower.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018 ... lapse.html

FTR- I do not subscribe, but who knows. The future is not predictable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:51 am

Radomski is the most negative "bull" out there that I occasionally read. The bullish gold stars never perfectly align for him, but are always just around the corner.

Of course, he's been right for a while though!

And as he points out, many sources remain consistently bullish on gold because they have something to sell you, just like stock analysts.

I'm fine with yet another washout. The final washout, yes, before the multi-decade bull run. Hah. How many times have we heard that.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 14, 2018 9:32 am

Sold more IAU...
Just not worth the agony and the hopium.
Now, 30/15/15/40 working towards 35/15/15/35
Should have done this a decade ago.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:34 pm

If that's what makes you comfortable then go for it. Just stick with whatever asset allocation you decide on. Switching portfolios because you are unhappy with how one asset is performing also means locking in losses.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Hal » Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:47 pm

Budd,

Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.

http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/

Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004

Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 14, 2018 8:30 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:34 pm
If that's what makes you comfortable then go for it. Just stick with whatever asset allocation you decide on. Switching portfolios because you are unhappy with how one asset is performing also means locking in losses.
It’s a tax loss for now and possibly a TLH with rebuy in 31 days.

If gold goes up I still have the lion’s share invested and that should be sufficient.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:04 am

Budd's right, gold is moribund. For centuries it was needed for trade, but now we have fiat. Yes fiat burns up but thats the idea, you're not supposed to hold it. As India evolves, they'll drop gold too. It might still have some utility as a measuring stick.

Edit: Fun story about gold in Iran
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... peculators
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 15, 2018 8:59 am

I don’t know, they’ve been saying that for a looong time. Especially every time it’s down.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:41 am

Look at the price performance of GLDW vs GLD since mid-April 2018. Gold's suck is purely due to the strong US dollar. If you hate gold at this time, you're betting the USD will continue strong . Hmmm... this too shall pass.

The SPDR® Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLDW) offers investors an innovative way to access the gold market by removing the potential negative influence of a strong U.S. dollar (USD) on the price of gold. GLDW seeks to track the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a long position in the US dollar against a basket of non-US currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The structure of this ETF effectively provides investors the benefit of owning an exposure to gold as though they had purchased it using a basket of six, non-US dollar currencies.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by ochotona » Wed Nov 28, 2018 12:11 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 11:00 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 9:41 am
Look at the price performance of GLDW vs GLD since mid-April 2018. Gold's suck is purely due to the strong US dollar. If you hate gold at this time, you're betting the USD will continue strong . Hmmm... this too shall pass.

The SPDR® Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSEArca: GLDW) offers investors an innovative way to access the gold market by removing the potential negative influence of a strong U.S. dollar (USD) on the price of gold. GLDW seeks to track the daily performance of a long position in physical gold and a long position in the US dollar against a basket of non-US currencies, including the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound (GBP), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the Swedish krona (SEK) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The structure of this ETF effectively provides investors the benefit of owning an exposure to gold as though they had purchased it using a basket of six, non-US dollar currencies.
Isn't that the whole point of holding gold (HBPP) in the first place?
Yes it is, currency diversification.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:25 pm

Might as well scream a little. Stocks way up because possible slowing of interest rate hike slowdown and TLT down and gold flat?

I think Budd has it right! :D
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:01 pm

Hal wrote:
Wed Nov 14, 2018 6:47 pm
Budd,

Before you stress out too much on Gold, have a listen to Harry.

http://web.archive.org/web/201604021622 ... wne/radio/

Gold talk is dated Sept 19, 2004

Hope you can have a good nights sleep afterwards,
Hal
Good refresh. I like the part somewhere around 25 minutes about supply and DEMAND for cash in regards to inflation.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Nov 28, 2018 6:09 pm

Cortopassi wrote:
Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:25 pm
Might as well scream a little. Stocks way up because possible slowing of interest rate hike slowdown and TLT down and gold flat?

I think Budd has it right! :D
Speaking with my actions these days instead of voicing my displeasure. People need to see the light on their own.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:55 am

Maybe it's time to review how gold is doing versus other currencies, since gold's "performance" with regard to the dollar in the short term, is really just about the dollar.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:04 pm

In the stuff I track, with a 1 Yr return, look who's the least stinky now....

Image
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:10 pm

But that's not what Harry Browne promised us. He said that every single day that stocks go down, gold will go up twice as much. Right? He did say that, didn't he? I'm pretty sure I heard that somewhere.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:18 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 12:10 pm
But that's not what Harry Browne promised us. He said that every single day that stocks go down, gold will go up twice as much. Right? He did say that, didn't he? I'm pretty sure I heard that somewhere.
You forgot your /s tag.
RIP Marcello Gandini
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