The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Wed Oct 24, 2018 2:49 pm

I don't watch prices like you people do. I can go months without looking. Might be one of the few things I do right.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:01 pm

Let me be the first to tell you it’s not good
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by stuper1 » Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm

Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
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I Shrugged
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by I Shrugged » Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by barrett » Fri Oct 26, 2018 4:43 pm

I Shrugged wrote:
Fri Oct 26, 2018 12:46 pm
stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
Somebody else posted recently to say that, if you are the type of person who likes to watch the stock market a lot, then there are probably much better strategies that you could be using than the PP -- things like dual momentum, etc.

The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
When I had a more active approach to investing, I made a real hobby of it. Once we switched to the PP... well it took a while, but yes, eventually it came to feel as if there just isn't much to look at. Most of the time it's like watching grass grow. And I've learned that it will go down, and then it will go up. Or the opposite! When I look at the graph over time, the line is going up to the right.

I do have a gut feeling that the PP is not quite working the same as HB thought it would. We have been in a zero interest environment for so long that it has really tested the PP, and gold. When interest rates are zero or near it, gold shouldn't be doing much. IMO. Now we might be seeing some liftoff in rates, so let's see what happens over the next few years.
Hmm. Just guessing but I would think that HB would expect that eight or so years of ZIRP would push stock prices higher... and that he'd just be recommending that people rebalance back to 4X25 whenever the portfolio gets stock heavy. Gold didn't work too well for a couple of decades but he still included it in his mix. Just my two cents.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm

I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm

Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Don » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:59 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 8:16 pm
Don wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:50 pm
dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 3:55 pm
I haven't looked at gold in so long that Chrome knows I want to go to apnews and not apmex.
What's to look at?
Wouldn't know. Haven't looked. O0
I just watch Gold Rush to get a sense of how the market is doing. :)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by sophie » Sun Nov 11, 2018 9:44 am

stuper1 wrote:
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:33 pm
The PP is great for people who get busy with life and may not look at the stock market for years. If that's not you, then you may be leaving money on the table by using the PP.
Maybe, but I feel like I'd be leaving a lot more money on the table by diverting significant effort from my career to managing investments. My expertise is at a much higher level in my career than in investing, so the returns on effort should be correspondingly greater.

If your investing expertise is beyond the amateur level, e.g. you know as much as the professionals on Wall Street, then I guess the above makes sense.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue Nov 13, 2018 8:10 am

FWIW- A gloomy prediction on precious metals. The author believes they could be heading much lower.

https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018 ... lapse.html

FTR- I do not subscribe, but who knows. The future is not predictable.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Tue Nov 13, 2018 9:51 am

Radomski is the most negative "bull" out there that I occasionally read. The bullish gold stars never perfectly align for him, but are always just around the corner.

Of course, he's been right for a while though!

And as he points out, many sources remain consistently bullish on gold because they have something to sell you, just like stock analysts.

I'm fine with yet another washout. The final washout, yes, before the multi-decade bull run. Hah. How many times have we heard that.
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