The GOLD scream room

Discussion of the Gold portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Ugly_Bird
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Ugly_Bird » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:53 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Mon Oct 08, 2018 4:47 pm
The portfolio is a massive waste of time and energy...
Huh?
To me, only time and energy I waste on PP when reading your complains. :-)
Kidding aside, it is quite opposite for me, I personally didn't spend much time on energy on PP at all.
Only when had it set up and then rebalanced for the first (and so far the only) time.
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buddtholomew
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:34 am

No Buddburst today
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:48 am

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:34 am
No Buddburst today
Looks like gold and TLT are going down...not as fast as stocks.

There's a boglehead thread about John Bogle saying it makes sense to sell stocks down 5 or 10% if it helps one sleep. Hmm. This is in the context of his belief that we're not going to see great market returns in the years to come.

For those who are 4x25 this might be a great opportunity to do nothing. Have another pina colada.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by PP67 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:54 pm

FIW According to Bloomberg's Billionaire Index, The world’s wealthiest people have, in aggregate, lost 2 percent of their wealth so far this year...
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Cortopassi
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:55 pm

Well that was an interesting day.

If the pattern holds from recent history, tomorrow will be a spectacular up day for stocks, while bonds and gold will be trashed and the PP slope for the year will continue down.

But I have no better alternative for sure. About the only thing I am considering is going back to a higher % in cash since it is paying near 2% now at Ally. 25% in cash would have been a good buffer today.

Days like this certainly make me wonder about all the little tweaks I have made over the past couple years, which helped last year but are hurting this year.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:30 pm

The PP (or any balanced portfolio for that matter) is not immune to rising interest rates and tighter money.

Corto, this time is different ;)
I see further declines in stocks as an 800 point drop in the DOW will panic most investors to sell.
Rates are going higher hell or high water and will exacerbate the declines in stocks even further than expected.
My guess is that rates pull-back in late October, equities stabilize and gold begins its ascent.
Probably will happen the other way then...
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:27 pm

buddtholomew wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:30 pm
I see further declines in stocks as an 800 point drop in the DOW will panic most investors to sell.
I agree. Anything could happen, but I feel tomorrow will see another slaughter or else a partial recovery, leading the semi-panicked to say ok, I recouped some of Wednesday’s losses and to sell by 3:00pm EST, i.e. an afternoon slaughter.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by eufo » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:35 pm

Is it wrong I love the slaughter days? It hurts my portfolio too, but it's interesting at least.
Don't agree with me too strongly or I'm going to change my mind
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by jhogue » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 pm

Sage advice from Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist, No. 12:

“The prosperity of commerce is now perceived and acknowledged, by all enlightened statesmen, to be the most useful as well as the most productive source of national wealth; and has accordingly become a primary object of their political cares. By multiplying the means of gratification, by promoting the introduction and circulation of the precious metals, (those darling objects of human avarice and enterprise), it serves to vivify and invigorate the channels of industry, and to make them flow with greater activity and copiousness. The assiduous merchant, the laborious husbandman, the active mechanic, and the industrious manufacturer, all orders of men look forward with eager expectation and growing alacrity to this pleasing reward of their toils.”



In other words, stop looking through the wrong end of the telescope. Buy gold for the long run.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by dualstow » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:36 pm

eufo wrote:
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:35 pm
Is it wrong I love the slaughter days? It hurts my portfolio too, but it's interesting at least.
Atl least we don’t have to wonder anymore. O0
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de-fang the snake, said my filipino kali instructor. Shortly after that, he hit me in the head with a rattan stick.
— Desert, 2016 (Nomad clothing thread)
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:53 am

As expected, no stock selloff follow through.
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Re: The GOLD scream room

Post by Cortopassi » Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:15 am

What the hell? :D

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