How do you invest the Cash portion?

Discussion of the Cash portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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sophie
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by sophie » Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:17 am

MangoMan wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:59 am
boglerdude wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:58 pm
> At today's rates on I bonds, there are just more desirable ways to invest cash

Which are? ibonds are risk free 2.22%
There are 5 year CDs available now paying more than that.
Can you share? The highest 5 year CD that I can find is paying 2.15%. This is effectively much worse than I bonds for me, as they are subject to state and local taxes. I bonds are not PLUS they're tax deferred. This is another substantial benefit for me...potentially another 10% or greater tax savings on top of the 11% with state/local.

Also, you pay the same 3 month interest penalty (and possibly more) with a 5 year CD if you break it early. So I'm not quite following your logic here? Also, all CD agreements have a little gotcha buried in them to the effect that the bank can deny or delay your request to cash in a CD before maturity. Treasury direct has no such limitations on selling an I bond.

The one advantage of a CD is that if inflation rates drop, I bond interest will drop accordingly but the CD will remain constant. Of course it works the other way too, if interest rates rise. And of course you can break the CD in year 1 if you choose to. But if you're buying a 5 year CD (or an I bond) you hopefully have at least a year's worth of expenses socked away in a more liquid form, such as a savings account or money market fund.
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by jhogue » Tue Dec 03, 2019 6:27 pm

Did you read the fine print? :

"Special 55-Month Certificate offer and stated APY may change at any time. APY effective August 14, 2019, is 2.60%; interest rate is 2.575%. Certificate has a $1,000 minimum and a $250,000 maximum balance. Must maintain a minimum $1,000 balance to earn the advertised APY. At maturity, all 55-Month Certificates will automatically renew at the 60-Month share certificate rate and term. Each individual member limited to one Special 55-Month Certificate. The Special 55-Month Certificate has a penalty equal to 360 days of dividends"

Doesn't look like such a great deal, especially the penalty for breaking the CD.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by ochotona » Tue Dec 03, 2019 7:03 pm

I-Bonds cannot break the zero bound. This is big f deal. Retail depositors in Europe are now being charged to keep their money in the bank.
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Tue Dec 03, 2019 8:11 pm

MangoMan wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 4:49 pm
sophie wrote:
Tue Dec 03, 2019 10:17 am
MangoMan wrote:
Mon Dec 02, 2019 7:59 am
boglerdude wrote:
Sun Dec 01, 2019 8:58 pm
> At today's rates on I bonds, there are just more desirable ways to invest cash

Which are? ibonds are risk free 2.22%
There are 5 year CDs available now paying more than that.
Can you share? The highest 5 year CD that I can find is paying 2.15%. This is effectively much worse than I bonds for me, as they are subject to state and local taxes. I bonds are not PLUS they're tax deferred. This is another substantial benefit for me...potentially another 10% or greater tax savings on top of the 11% with state/local.

Also, you pay the same 3 month interest penalty (and possibly more) with a 5 year CD if you break it early. So I'm not quite following your logic here? Also, all CD agreements have a little gotcha buried in them to the effect that the bank can deny or delay your request to cash in a CD before maturity. Treasury direct has no such limitations on selling an I bond.

The one advantage of a CD is that if inflation rates drop, I bond interest will drop accordingly but the CD will remain constant. Of course it works the other way too, if interest rates rise. And of course you can break the CD in year 1 if you choose to. But if you're buying a 5 year CD (or an I bond) you hopefully have at least a year's worth of expenses socked away in a more liquid form, such as a savings account or money market fund.
For instance, here is a 55 month at 2.6% or 84 month at 3.05% https://www.andrewsfcu.org/Learn/Resour ... cate-Rates. And I bonds are illiquid for 1 year, where as a CD is not. Also not sure the govt FDIC would allow default any differently that the US govt with treasuries.
Isn't the FDIC funded by individual bank contributions? In a true panic the FDIC could run out with no guarantees the government would step in to back up private banks. Maybe they would. But it's a lot different than the safety of treasuries. Plus, even if you were able to get your FDIC guarantee there could be a long delay from when you could actually get at your funds.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by sophie » Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:17 pm

Those do indeed look like nice CD rates - for money you are willing to lock up for 5 years, due to that excessive penalty for breaking the CD early.

However, most of us cannot get them. You have to join that credit union first, and most of us can't do that:
ELIGIBILITY REQUIREMENTS
You are eligible to join us if you are at least 18 years of age1, and one of the following applies to you:

You are employed by or a member of one of our Employer Groups.
You live, work, attend school, or worship in Washington, D.C.
You are or wish to be a member of the American Consumer Council.
You are an immediate family or household member2 of an existing Andrews Federal member.
You are U.S. Active Duty or U.S. Retired Military Personnel (or their spouses, dependents or dependent survivors) assigned to, or eligible to and are currently receiving benefits or services on a regular basis from Joint Base Andrews or Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst.
Civilian personnel of U.S. Military units (or their dependents or dependent survivors) who work at or are assigned to Joint Base Andrews or Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst.
Active Duty U.S. Military or Civilian personnel (or their dependents or dependent survivors) of the Department of Defense who have a valid Uniformed Services Identification and Privilege Card and who are authorized logistical support in accordance with the appropriate host nation Status of Forces Agreement, and who have a work or residential address within Andrews' assigned geographical territory, consisting of areas in: the Netherlands, Belgium, and northern and central Germany.
You qualify based on your affiliation with specific Military Installations.
My only option would be to join the American Consumer Council. And then I'd have to keep money in the credit union at near zero interest, for no other reason since I can't use their services in any other respect.

Easier just to buy the I bonds :-).
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:18 pm

I started this topic on July 4th and it is STILL going strong!

Tonight I came back to it to reread what I initially wrote plus what everyone else subsequently wrote. Tonight I also completed reading Craig and Tex's book for the third time this year. The goal is to FINALLY come up with the plan I will execute to then be completely in the Permanent Portfolio. I still want to eventually get to Level 4 (per the book) but I do want to finally get the Permanent Portfolio started. I also recognize that I can gradually move each of the four investment components up levels from where I will be originally starting them so that each does end up at Level 4.

Therefore, along with that, I am going to first start off my cash investment 100% in Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX). I at first panicked because it was NOT listed under Money market funds in Vanguard's Mutual Fund list. Had it somehow closed??!! But then I found it doing a search on its Ticker.

It currently has a Expense ratio of 0.09%. Quite low. With a 7 day SEC yield of 1.65% it's really earning 1.74%.

Assuming I later buy Treasury Bills in its place I could get quite close to the 1.74% rate, either slightly higher or slightly lower?

And, the time break-even is taking that 0.09% Expense ratio which turns into $9 per year for every $10,000 invested / $90 per year for every $100,000 invested and comparing that total Expense ratio $ amount I'd be avoiding by doing it myself to how much time a year it'd cost for me to do it myself (i.e., buying the Treasury Bills directly).

It seems that compared to the last time I looked the Portfolio composition has deteriorated with only 90.8% being in U.S. Treasury Bills with the remaining 9.2% being in U.S. Govt. Obligations? Seemed last time I looked the ratio was closer to 99% / 1%? Or, maybe I am mis-remembering? But this is a qualitative difference that pushes me more to doing it myself.

I have questions regarding buying the Treasury Bills at Vanguard brokerage but I'll save that for the next Reply.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:29 pm

Many months ago I talked to Vanguard brokerage regarding buying Treasury bills through them.

Since they are notes it's be great if any of you experienced with buying them through Vanguard can correct anything I'm not correctly interpreting from my notes.

1) No fees to buy them.

2) Maximum term - 12 months

3) For 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 months Treasury Bills there are weekly auctions whereby you get to bid 3 days in advance

4) For 1 year Treasury Bills there are monthly auctions whereby you get to bid 4 days in advance

5) If buying on the secondary market you can buy any time from 8 AM to 5 PM, Monday to Friday.

In my entire life my own bond purchases have been via just two bond funds, both of which I still have. I have never purchased an individual bond so this is all new to me.

In addition to correcting anything I have mis-stated above, I'd love to hear as many specifics as possible regarding your Treasury Bill buying with Vanguard.

Since I will be going "pure" Permanent Portfolio I'm not interested in anything but Treasury Bills in the form of bond purchases to constitute the "Cash" portion of the Permanent Portfolio. Nothing longer than a year. No non-Treasury Bills, any other money market funds, or CDs. Given my overall situation, I'm placing a HIGH premium on safety with NO need to try to get small extra %'s greater than the Treasury Bill rates.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:03 pm

vnatale wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:18 pm
I started this topic on July 4th and it is STILL going strong!

Tonight I came back to it to reread what I initially wrote plus what everyone else subsequently wrote. Tonight I also completed reading Craig and Tex's book for the third time this year. The goal is to FINALLY come up with the plan I will execute to then be completely in the Permanent Portfolio. I still want to eventually get to Level 4 (per the book) but I do want to finally get the Permanent Portfolio started. I also recognize that I can gradually move each of the four investment components up levels from where I will be originally starting them so that each does end up at Level 4.

Therefore, along with that, I am going to first start off my cash investment 100% in Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX). I at first panicked because it was NOT listed under Money market funds in Vanguard's Mutual Fund list. Had it somehow closed??!! But then I found it doing a search on its Ticker.

It currently has a Expense ratio of 0.09%. Quite low. With a 7 day SEC yield of 1.65% it's really earning 1.74%.

Assuming I later buy Treasury Bills in its place I could get quite close to the 1.74% rate, either slightly higher or slightly lower?

And, the time break-even is taking that 0.09% Expense ratio which turns into $9 per year for every $10,000 invested / $90 per year for every $100,000 invested and comparing that total Expense ratio $ amount I'd be avoiding by doing it myself to how much time a year it'd cost for me to do it myself (i.e., buying the Treasury Bills directly).

It seems that compared to the last time I looked the Portfolio composition has deteriorated with only 90.8% being in U.S. Treasury Bills with the remaining 9.2% being in U.S. Govt. Obligations? Seemed last time I looked the ratio was closer to 99% / 1%? Or, maybe I am mis-remembering? But this is a qualitative difference that pushes me more to doing it myself.

I have questions regarding buying the Treasury Bills at Vanguard brokerage but I'll save that for the next Reply.

Vinny
Looks like I had NOT mis-remembered. Going back to what I originally wrote on July 4, 2019:

"Going to Vanguard I can see that the current composition of the Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund (VUSXX) is:

U.S. Treasury Bills 100%"

At Vanguard I see this regarding the fund:

"Vanguard Treasury Money Market Fund seeks to provide current income, while maintaining a stable $1 NAV and a very short average maturity. The fund invests 100% of its assets in securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. The portfolio managers seek to add value primarily by emphasizing specific issues that appear attractively priced based on historical yield-spread relationships. The average maturity typically ranges from 30–60 days, and the fund maintains a dollar-weighted average maturity of 60 days or less, and a dollar-weighted average life of 120 days or less."

I guess the difference from today and July 4, 2019 is that as of today they sought "to add value primarily by emphasizing specific issues that appear attractively priced based on historical yield-spread relationships"?

I am going to attempt to query the current Portfolio manager regarding this. Anyone ever had any communications with a Vanguard Portfolio manager?

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:15 pm

dualstow wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 5:36 pm
ochotona wrote:
Sat Jul 06, 2019 9:18 am
I'm disappointed Ally's savings rate went down to 2.10%,
TD sent me an offer of a $500 bonus if I deposit 20K. So 2.5% After that, the savings rate is 0.10% I looked up Ally’s rate because I have checking with them and thought, ooh, 2.10%, not bad. (There are other offerings from TD that are higher, but without the bonus, I think).

Not really worth opening and closing accounts.
I did start a separate discussion regarding this.

Yes, one would definitely have to open the account to qualify. In closing an account are you referring to closing an account elsewhere to get the money there? Or, ultimately closing this account.

The issue of ethics was raised by a few of just engaging a credit card bonus and then leaving as soon as you satisfied the requirements. That's fine if there was some give and take on the other end but does anyone dispute the following? The credit card company offers you $200 if you charge $1,500 during the first 90 days of the life of the card. Do you think you get your $200 if you spend $1,499.99? Or, Take 91 days? Of course not! They are quite black and white with their offers. Therefore, I see no ethical problems with being black and white with their offers. Furthermore, that 90 days? It starts from when they approve your card. NOT when you actually receive your card, which can be 14-21 days later. That, of course, does not give you the full 90 days. I brought this up with the representative of one of the cards. You can all guess what answer I got.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:19 pm

jacksonM wrote:
Sun Jul 07, 2019 6:57 pm
T bills for me too. Some of it is in various money market accounts at Fidelity and Vanguard for convenience sake but basically if I have a big bunch of cash it goes into T-Bills.

As for why I do this, it's because that was what HB suggested in his book and also the authors of the newer book by the folks who originally started this forum. They seemed to have spent more time thinking about these kinds of things than me and showed facts and figures for why it worked in the overall scheme of things so I didn't see any reason to delve any further to come up with my own plans.

Especially true nowadays when the best you can hope for with cash beyond what they recommended is is a minuscule improvement that doesn't really justify the risk of doing something else.
Thank you for quite well stating an affirmation for what I think I will be choosing to do.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:25 pm

Smith1776 wrote:
Fri Sep 06, 2019 3:23 pm
A bit of water cooler talk here.

Which would you guys consider to be safer for the cash portion of the PP, assuming you could only pick one?

1) A ladder of 1 - 5 year federal government treasuries

2) A fund with 0 - 90 day commercial paper obligations?
You did use the word "safer". Therefore I cannot think it'd be anything but #1 for safety of the nominal amount of your principal.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:30 pm

dualstow wrote:
Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:37 pm
Just the bulk of holdings. I don’t keep a fixed percent in one or the other. When the auction for 2-yr notes came out earlier this year I jumped on it because the potential rate was 2.75%*.
I like the treasury money market because I can sell notes to the sweep account and then the the next day purchase stocks, gold, bonds or cash. I tend to hold all bills and notes to maturity, although it would be easy enough to sell the if I were in a jam.

*9128285B2 2-year notes. Know that the advertised rate for an auction issue is merely a guideline. You don’t know what you’ve got until the auction is done. That’s why — as I said in the response to your pm — many people prefer the secondary market. I think we have a stickied guideline to buying treasuries, btw.
This is ONLY the 4th time I've read this. But the FIRST time I have noticed your last sentence. Is it referring to something that exists in this forum?

If so, where do I find it?

Thanks

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:33 pm

sophie wrote:
Sun Oct 27, 2019 11:07 am
ochotona wrote:
Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:19 pm
Does anyone use SHV for cash?
I don't use ETFs for cash, but it's mainly because they are a PITA to trade. Plus I've experienced a bit of float with share values. Much prefer money market funds pegged at $1/share and straight up T bills.

Also, VUSXX (Vanguard treasury-only MM) blows SHV away on the expense ratio (0.09% vs 0.15%). I wish FDLXX (Fidelity's treasury MM) would come down from its eye-popping 0.42%.
Does FDLXX usually have a yield about 0.33% less than VUSXX's rate?

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:40 pm

ochotona wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:40 pm
vnatale wrote:
Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:26 pm

Does that whole process now seem like the Dark Ages compared to now? I also used to buy tons of stamps back and write a lot of checks. Now it's only a handful of stamps used ALL year and not that many checks written.

Vinny
Yeah... except just remember... common everyday email is NOT ENCRYPTED. If you want something to be really pretty private, send it by US Mail... or encrypt it.
That U.S. Mail is not ALWAYS "pretty private". Over the years I've been given enough of my neighbors' mail (which, of course, I return) that each time it happens I wonder if some neighbor originally received one of many Vanguard statements that arrive each month.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:46 pm

jhogue wrote:
Mon Nov 25, 2019 2:36 pm

dualstow,

Looking in the rear view mirror, your ten year ladder of CDs must seem like a sure-fire-no-brainer-strategy for any amount of cash up to the $250,000 FDIC limit. Low inflation and Trump’s tax cut didn’t hurt either.

Here’s the problem as I see it:

Domestic STTs and ITTs are now stuck in a lower-bound range of 1.5 - 1.8%, and trillions in negative yielding euro and Swiss franc bonds are piling ever higher in Europe. There is no way that you can build a new ladder of of ten year CDs going forward that will bring you the after-inflation and after-tax yield your old CD ladder did. Interest rates can stay the same or they can rise, but they cannot continue to fall at the rate they did over the last decade for the next decade.
You bringing up FDIC limit brings up something I'd like clarification. SPIC limit.

I find the following: "SIPC coverage, however, has a limit. It’s capped at $500,000 per customer, with an exception of cash holdings, for which the limit is $250,000."

I'm assuming that the $500,000 limit would apply to all one would hold at, say, Vanguard? And, a money market fund would NOT be considered a cash holding? How does buying Treasury Bills via Vanguard brokerage get covered? Just part of that $500,000?

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:52 pm

drumminj wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 1:07 pm
jhogue wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 10:10 am
Why do you want to buy a 5 year FDIC-backed CD, which is illiquid (as you yourself described it) and not as safe as a T-bill?
I buy both, to be honest. For "deep cash", as folks tend to call it, I have some 5-yr CDs fetching > 3%. Yes, I'm chasing yield, but I can withdraw the money immediately (for a small penalty). It's a bit less accessible than cash in an FDIC-insured account, but for some of my cash, the difference in yield is worth it.

I also have a bunch of 13-week treasuries, cash in a bank account, and cash on hand. There's some risk with FDIC, but there's also risk with SIPC (possibly more?) if you're holding STTs with Fidelity, and there's risk with TreasuryDirect (as discussed on this forum).

Pick your poison!
I JUST asked a question seeking clarification regarding SPIC. I assume you see the same risk holding them with Vanguard (or, anyone else)? Outside of TreasuryDirect, how else can you buy / hold them? I assume you can mitigate the SPIC risk by holding them in more than one brokerage (as advised by Craig and Tex's book). Please elaborate on any other SPIC risks you see.

Thanks

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:55 pm

drumminj wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:08 pm
jhogue wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:48 pm
11/27/19
drumminj,

I am not picking your poison because I agree with Harry Browne and craigr that all financial risks are not created equal:
That's fair, and to be clear I'm not trying to convince anyone.

I disagree though that there are no "FDIC limits to worry about". Your MM funds are held by a financial institution (in "street name", possibly even?) which may become insolvent, halt withdrawls, etc. You have insurance issues there, no? Asking sincerely, is this less risky than FDIC?

Treasuries held directly? Sure. Treasuries held on your behalf? Less so. Treasury MM? Also has risks.

Again, not trying to convince anyone to do what I do -- just trying to be clear about the risks here in the margins.
Sorry to keep hounding about this but I've never yet directly owned any bond outside of a fund and never really thought about SPIC until just recently.

Does buying Treasury bills via Vanguard brokerage constitute "Treasuries held directly"?

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by vnatale » Wed Dec 04, 2019 9:02 pm

dualstow wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 3:29 am
Pet Hog wrote:
Fri Nov 29, 2019 1:57 am

I have no problem with cash being defined as up to five-year treasuries/CDs, but I am in the accumulation phase. I can understand someone in the withdrawal phase having a different opinion.
I’m accumulating, too. But, imagine you suddenly need to use cash at the same time that five-year treasuries sharply decrease in value. How mature is that ladder? How many of those treasuries can you really sell in a pinch without much of a loss?

It’s not the same as a treasury mm, from which you can withdraw what you need and a share = $1. If you’re really going to go five years out, maybe you had better go with those CDs with low penalties.
Totally understand what you are saying regarding the potential loss. Does anyone know the sharpest drop in Treasury Bills? Just went here: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... &year=2008 to look at what happened in 2008.

HUGE drop for 1 YR Treasury Bills

01/02/08 started at 3.17%. 12/31/08 ended at 0.37%. A drop of 2.7%! Of course, an EXTREME. But NO guarantees we don't experience the same (or WORSE!) again.

Vinny
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by dualstow » Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:28 am

That’s a drop in yield, isn’t it? Meaning the value of those bills went up.
Even when the yield goes up and the t-bill price goes down, I’ll take the minimal loss vs that in other holdings.
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by jhogue » Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:00 am

Vinny,

Remember that if you held your short term T-bill to maturity, you got your full principal back plus your original stated interest.

Note too in the 2008 example you cited that when US interest rates fell, the principal value of the 30 year T-bonds in the HBPP rose dramatically. You always have to consider how the whole portfolio as a whole reacts, not just one asset.
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A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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mathjak107
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:48 am

for 2019 one of the worst places to keep cash was the permanent portfolio's own treasury bond fund


'Permanent Portfolio Treasury (PRTBX): Expense ratio: 0.66%. Management fee: 1.19%. After expenses, the 5 year return is 0.33%, meaning your fees are far higher than the fund's returns."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mutual-f ... 01586.html
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 06, 2019 6:22 am

jhogue wrote:
Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:00 am
Vinny,

Remember that if you held your short term T-bill to maturity, you got your full principal back plus your original stated interest.
...
Right, and the same goes for those 5-year notes. But, if you have to sell suddenly, one could do worse than t-bills, or VUSXX (treasury money market).
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by sophie » Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:52 am

vnatale wrote:
Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:55 pm
drumminj wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 9:08 pm
jhogue wrote:
Wed Nov 27, 2019 2:48 pm
11/27/19
drumminj,

I am not picking your poison because I agree with Harry Browne and craigr that all financial risks are not created equal:
That's fair, and to be clear I'm not trying to convince anyone.

I disagree though that there are no "FDIC limits to worry about". Your MM funds are held by a financial institution (in "street name", possibly even?) which may become insolvent, halt withdrawls, etc. You have insurance issues there, no? Asking sincerely, is this less risky than FDIC?

Treasuries held directly? Sure. Treasuries held on your behalf? Less so. Treasury MM? Also has risks.

Again, not trying to convince anyone to do what I do -- just trying to be clear about the risks here in the margins.
Sorry to keep hounding about this but I've never yet directly owned any bond outside of a fund and never really thought about SPIC until just recently.

Does buying Treasury bills via Vanguard brokerage constitute "Treasuries held directly"?

Vinny
This is actually a really good question.

A treasury bill or bond should be very safe, so there should be no problem selling it or collecting the promised bond amount + interest on maturity. However, in order to get that cash to your checking account so you can use it to pay bills, it has to go by way of the brokerage core fund. I have no idea how safe those are...presumably pretty safe, but if there were ever a panic in the money markets I assume those core funds could be affected. A frozen core fund would be a disaster, as it would effectively freeze your entire account.

Harry Browne advocated getting a Treasury MM with direct checkwriting privileges, and that's how his own finances were set up. He would write a check from the treasury MM once a month to fund his living expenses, because he distrusted banks to the extent that he wouldn't keep more than one month expenses in one. Unfortunately, neither Vanguard nor Fidelity provide checkwriting from an individual fund - only from an account. I don't know where you'd go to find such a beast.
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by dualstow » Fri Dec 06, 2019 2:04 pm

sophie wrote:
Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:52 am
Unfortunately, neither Vanguard nor Fidelity provide checkwriting from an individual fund - only from an account. I don't know where you'd go to find such a beast.
Sophie, I have checkwriting from many of my Vanguard funds, even a long-term muni bond fund.
There was a hiccup during some reshuffling- consolidation of the indy stocks and the mutual funds, which they used to keep in separate sections -- but I merely had to reapply for checks and they came in the mail.
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Re: How do you invest the Cash portion?

Post by jhogue » Fri Dec 06, 2019 3:27 pm

Vinny,

Financial safety is reinforced through diversity and liquidity. T-bills held in a brokerage account at Vanguard are safe enough for “normal” times because Vanguard is a big active player in the enormous world-wide secondary market for Treasurys. Unless there is a terrific disruption in this market your money will always be completely liquid. Nevertheless, you might eventually consider diversifying your holdings of Treasury –issued securities as follows:

1. Federal Reserve notes (ie., greenbacks yielding 0% interest) kept in a safe place in your home.

2. A TreasuryDirect account in your name.

3. Paper I-bonds with registered serial numbers purchased with your annual tax refund.

Any of these will diversify your holdings away from a 100% T-bill position in a brokerage account. But understand that each of these methods poses different risks from T-bills held in a brokerage account. That is the way risk works.
“Groucho Marx wrote:
A stock trader asked him, "Groucho, where do you put all your money?" Groucho was said to have replied, "In Treasury bonds", and the trader said, "You can't make much money on those." Groucho said, "You can if you have enough of them!"
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