Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Discussion of the Cash portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
jason
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:10 pm

Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by jason » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:49 pm

Hello,

I have read both Craig's book and HB's Failsafe Investing, and I think I recall that HB said not to reinvest dividends into the stock market, and just add them to the cash position.  Is that correct?  Also, what am I supposed to be doing with the interest I am earning from my 30 year treasuries.  Should I reinvest that into more treasuries, or should I just add it to my cash position, and not deploy the cash it unless my cash exceeds 35% of my holdings?

Thanks
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10904
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by dualstow » Wed Nov 20, 2013 3:53 pm

I have never reinvested the cash from bonds, with the exception of TLT and EDV. Those were in tax-deferred accounts, so I didn't worry too much about all the cost basis calculations. And, the reinvested dollars were not huge, so it wouldn't throw my portfolio off balance. It was convenient to let them automatically reinvest and buy fractional shares, especially in small accounts that would take forever to build up much cash.

I hope I'm not misquoting: I think Craig said on more than one occasion that he uses treasury interest for some living expenses.
I don't do anything with the interest except let it accumulate in my money market account. It's not much on its own. When enough cash finally piles up from that plus cash from stock dividends (say, $5,000), I decide whether to plow that back into the pp, into the vp, or just over to the bank account for spending.
Apple Security Head Charged With Offering Bribe for Gun Licenses - Bloomberg
Robin DiAngelo, author of ‘White Fragility’, paid more for speaking engagement than black counterparts. — FreeBeacon dot com
User avatar
KevinW
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 945
Joined: Sun May 02, 2010 11:01 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by KevinW » Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:29 pm

The HB-orthodox answer is to have all the stock dividends, bond interest, and cash interest deposited into the cash allocation. Then follow the 15/35 rebalancing rules as usual.
User avatar
jason
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Jun 10, 2013 4:10 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by jason » Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:18 am

KevinW wrote: The HB-orthodox answer is to have all the stock dividends, bond interest, and cash interest deposited into the cash allocation. Then follow the 15/35 rebalancing rules as usual.
Thanks!  That's exactly the information I was looking for.
User avatar
k9
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 130
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:26 am
Location: France

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by k9 » Thu Nov 28, 2013 3:40 pm

In practice, does it change anything if you automatically reinvest dividends ?
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10904
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by dualstow » Thu Nov 28, 2013 8:08 pm

k9 wrote: In practice, does it change anything if you automatically reinvest dividends ?
Dividends are not large for a broad index fund, so i don't see why it would. In a taxable account, of course there'd be much more paperwork.
Apple Security Head Charged With Offering Bribe for Gun Licenses - Bloomberg
Robin DiAngelo, author of ‘White Fragility’, paid more for speaking engagement than black counterparts. — FreeBeacon dot com
User avatar
Bean
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 389
Joined: Mon May 28, 2012 10:30 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by Bean » Fri Nov 29, 2013 7:38 am

k9 wrote: In practice, does it change anything if you automatically reinvest dividends ?
I think I read over in the boglehead forum somewhere you lose around 0.2% in opportunity cost.
“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.� ~Talmud
Pet Hog
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 218
Joined: Tue May 28, 2013 4:08 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by Pet Hog » Mon Dec 02, 2013 7:08 pm

I prefer that dividends and coupon payments be reinvested in stocks and bonds, respectively.  I don't think that rebalancing should occur just because I receive one of these payments.  But what do the numbers say?

Below I have drawn the CAGRs for PPs starting on January 1 of each year since 1972 and ending today (December 2, 2013)—one set with reinvesting, the other without (all data from peaktotrough; 35/15 rebalancing bands; years 2011 to 2013 omitted for clarity).  Reinvesting appears to be a generally better strategy, winning all but nine times over 42 years.  The average difference in CAGR between the two approaches has been 0.16%.

Image

Here is the plot of the difference in CAGR between the two approaches (including years 2012 and 2013):

Image

Conclusion?  Reinvesting has been a better strategy in general, but not always.  The advantage is small, but will add, on average, about 5% to a PP's returns over a 30-year period.
Last edited by Pet Hog on Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Pointedstick
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 8700
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 9:21 pm
Contact:

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by Pointedstick » Mon Dec 02, 2013 8:47 pm

That downward-sloping CAGR graph is not encouraging. :(
Human behavior is economic behavior. The particulars may vary, but competition for limited resources remains a constant.
- CEO Nwabudike Morgan
stuper1
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1061
Joined: Sun Mar 03, 2013 7:18 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by stuper1 » Mon Dec 02, 2013 9:30 pm

Pointedstick wrote: That downward-sloping CAGR graph is not encouraging. :(
We need a graph of real CAGRs after subtracting inflation.  I think (hope) that would not have the downward-sloping trend.
Pet Hog
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 218
Joined: Tue May 28, 2013 4:08 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by Pet Hog » Mon Dec 02, 2013 9:36 pm

stuper1 wrote:
Pointedstick wrote: That downward-sloping CAGR graph is not encouraging. :(
We need a graph of real CAGRs after subtracting inflation.  I think (hope) that would not have the downward-sloping trend.
I'll upload one tomorrow.
Pet Hog
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 218
Joined: Tue May 28, 2013 4:08 pm

Re: Reinvesting dividends and treasury interest?

Post by Pet Hog » Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:26 am

Here's the plot of real CAGRs.  Gratifyingly, it displays no downward trend, and reveals that the PP has provided a real return of between 4 and 6% for every portfolio begun on January 1 since 1972—except for the 2011, 2012, and 2013 portfolios, which are suffering from this year's negative return.

Image

I used CPI-U data to determine the rates of inflation.  (Note that I used the CPI-U value for October 2013—the latest available—as my current value as of December 2, 2013, so all of my charts actually present returns as of October 31, 2013.)

Image
Last edited by Pet Hog on Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Post Reply