TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

Post Reply
User avatar
lordmetroid
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 200
Joined: Wed Nov 26, 2014 3:53 pm

TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Post by lordmetroid »

I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!
Image
Alanw
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 279
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2012 11:05 am

Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Post by Alanw »

Rate hike was one of the worst kept secrets.  All priced in far in advance.
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 14292
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Location: synagogue of Satan
Contact:

Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Post by dualstow »

lordmetroid wrote: I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!
If there's one thing I've learned over and over and over on this forum, it's that gentle Fed rate hikes wouldn't necessarily affect our long term bonds at all. So, definitely not crazy.
9pm EST Explosions in Iran (Isfahan) and Syria and Iraq. Not yet confirmed.
User avatar
ochotona
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3354
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 5:54 am

Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Post by ochotona »

Also, TLT and FED funds rate are the two extreme ends of the yield curve... they are not tightly linked.
economicsjunkie
Full Member
Full Member
Posts: 88
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2015 2:09 pm

Re: TLT value increased when FED raised rates?

Post by economicsjunkie »

lordmetroid wrote: I thought the bonds where suppose to loose value when rates increased. This is crazy!
The Fed Funds rate is a short term rate.

Put simply: The yield investors ask on a 30 year Treasury is essentially their expected average yield of all the 30 1 yr Treasurys inside that timespan (or all the 60 6 month Treasurys etc.), plus some premium to compensate for surrendering your money for a longer period. So even if the yield on the 1 yr were to go to 4%, if investors expect that increase to be short lived and 1 yr yields to fall back to around 0.5% for example, and then stay below 3% for decades to come, they may still be satisfied with a 3% yield on present 30 year Treasurys.
Last edited by economicsjunkie on Wed Mar 02, 2016 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Post Reply