The Pink Elephant in the Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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Gosso
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by Gosso » Fri Jun 12, 2015 7:50 am

MachineGhost wrote:
MediumTex wrote: Bloomberg says the 30 year bund is at 1.58%

Is that not right?
Yes, thats right.  How much of a loss was it from the lowest point (I guess 30yr didn't go negative) to 1.58%?  I want an early little taste of the masochism we have coming at us.

EDIT: 30yr yield has skyrocketed from .434% to 1.546%.  -28% loss?
The PRICE() function in excel gives -21%, which makes sense since a 30 year bond has a duration of around 21 years (bond duration can be used to estimate the percent change in the bond price for each 1% change in yield).
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:46 am

sophie wrote:
dualstow wrote: Why pink elephant? I'm too distracted by this that I have to know before I get to the question at hand.
Got you to read the thread now didn't it?
There are two smart-ass compilations that I wish I had begun assembling a long time ago for posterity.
One is MG's "I tried _x_ but it did _y_ to my body." The other is mixed metaphors. Besides seeing pink elephants / elephant in the room,
off the top of my head, there's:

"painted oneself into a pickle" (Moda) {in a pickle / painted ~ into a corner
"cash in my cold dead hands" (MG) { pry the gun from my cold dead hands / cold hard cash }

but it would be too much work to go through and find them now.
Well, back to the thread at hand.
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by barrett » Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:11 am

dualstow wrote:
sophie wrote:
dualstow wrote: Why pink elephant? I'm too distracted by this that I have to know before I get to the question at hand.
Got you to read the thread now didn't it?
There are two smart-ass compilations that I wish I had begun assembling a long time ago for posterity.
One is MG's "I tried _x_ but it did _y_ to my body." The other is mixed metaphors. Besides seeing pink elephants / elephant in the room,
off the top of my head, there's:

"painted oneself into a pickle" (Moda) {in a pickle / painted ~ into a corner
"cash in my cold dead hands" (MG) { pry the gun from my cold dead hands / cold hard cash }

but it would be too much work to go through and find them now.
Well, back to the thread at hand.
Not ready to go back to the thread at hand just yet. It's not in a category of smart-ass but we would also need a Medium Tex Analogy Compendium of quotes that start with "It would be like..."
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:18 am

He really is a master simile crafstman!
live :: I think Zuck and libra need to be observed, but I'm not sure that Congress are up to the task ::
:: NordVPN was hacked. They put out a youtube video on it ::
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by barrett » Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:21 am

sophie wrote: Holding a bond that has gone down in value by 30% and pays no interest has got to be pretty painful.  I must say that if the US 30 year Treasury ever got down to negative yields, I would not be buying them and I'd probably cash out.  The problem is, where would I put the cash?  Bank savings account vs under the mattress would be the only options other than plowing the money into stocks and gold.
This is what I think of as 'Pfanni's Dilemma' from when he was grappling with the European long bond issue a few months ago. The PP strategy of just holding all four assets in equal amounts breaks down for me when long bong rates are super low. At a certain point the risk just outweighs the potential reward and I would say that, yes, holding more cash is the best answer. If there is further deflation, well your cash has gone up in value, just not as dramatically as it would have with bonds. If yields rise quickly to the point where significant inflation takes hold, having that extra cash in, say T-Bills is not so bad either.
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:31 am

dualstow wrote: Which thread? All apologies. I read some threads methodically but skip through others. Let me know and I'll answer right away.
Edit: I think you're asking about the stock newsletter. If so, that would be Louis Navellier. 3 of them, actually: emerging growth, blue chip growth, and family trust.
Cool, thanks!  Navellier is actually one of the better ones, though certainly not tops by all means.  Your client could have done much much worse.

P.S.  There's a cute little pink mouse in the room also...  no one said the PP would offset losses in an asset at the same time.  More than likely you take a hit then have to wait throughout the agonizing recovery.
Last edited by MachineGhost on Fri Jun 12, 2015 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Jun 12, 2015 10:26 am

Yeah, I think Navellier has a pretty good track record, although I noticed I can't always buy at the price he suggests without chasing a stock. For example, for thinly traded stocks, he'll suggest a limit order within 25 cents of the previous day's closing price. It doesn't trigger because the stock shoots up that day, but his newsletter still shows his buy price and the subsequent high gains he brought us.  :)
live :: I think Zuck and libra need to be observed, but I'm not sure that Congress are up to the task ::
:: NordVPN was hacked. They put out a youtube video on it ::
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:33 pm

MachineGhost wrote:
dualstow wrote: Which thread? All apologies. I read some threads methodically but skip through others. Let me know and I'll answer right away.
Edit: I think you're asking about the stock newsletter. If so, that would be Louis Navellier. 3 of them, actually: emerging growth, blue chip growth, and family trust.
Cool, thanks!  Navellier is actually one of the better ones, though certainly not tops by all means.  Your client could have done much much worse.

P.S.  There's a cute little pink mouse in the room also...  no one said the PP would offset losses in an asset at the same time.  More than likely you take a hit then have to wait throughout the agonizing recovery.
bump for MG
live :: I think Zuck and libra need to be observed, but I'm not sure that Congress are up to the task ::
:: NordVPN was hacked. They put out a youtube video on it ::
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by MachineGhost » Fri Sep 02, 2016 1:43 pm

dualstow wrote:
MachineGhost wrote:
dualstow wrote: Which thread? All apologies. I read some threads methodically but skip through others. Let me know and I'll answer right away.
Edit: I think you're asking about the stock newsletter. If so, that would be Louis Navellier. 3 of them, actually: emerging growth, blue chip growth, and family trust.
Cool, thanks!  Navellier is actually one of the better ones, though certainly not tops by all means.  Your client could have done much much worse.

P.S.  There's a cute little pink mouse in the room also...  no one said the PP would offset losses in an asset at the same time.  More than likely you take a hit then have to wait throughout the agonizing recovery.
bump for MG
That is not an endorsement, he's one of "the better ones"... NEAR THE BOTTOM, i.e. he doesn't beat buy and hold. See the stats I posted in the Resort.
"All generous minds have a horror of what are commonly called 'Facts'. They are the brute beasts of the intellectual domain." -- Thomas Hobbes

Disclaimer: I am not a broker, dealer, investment advisor, physician, theologian or prophet.  I should not be considered as legally permitted to render such advice!
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Re: The Pink Elephant in the Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Sep 02, 2016 3:32 pm

Near the bottom. Ok, thank you for that clarification.
live :: I think Zuck and libra need to be observed, but I'm not sure that Congress are up to the task ::
:: NordVPN was hacked. They put out a youtube video on it ::
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