TLT Negative YTD

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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buddtholomew
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TLT Negative YTD

Post by buddtholomew » Wed Apr 29, 2015 8:07 pm

My TLT holdings are now -.15% YTD (dividends not reinvested). It has certainly been a roller coaster ride. Can't explain the outsized declines of late given economic news and the remote chances of a rate hike this year.  I wouldn't be alarmed if we see a complete reversal soon.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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ochotona
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by ochotona » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:19 pm

Not a whole lot of fun. Bonds are high, US stocks are high, gold is wherever it is, I'd be thrilled if the PP could give us +7% this year.
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by ochotona » Wed Apr 29, 2015 9:32 pm

ochotona wrote: Not a whole lot of fun. Bonds are high, US stocks are high, gold is wherever it is, I'd be thrilled if the PP could give us +7% this year.
Forget everything I said. I use the TLO ETF, yes, the price of the ETF is down 0.5%  YTD...

The total performance is +3.6% YTD.
Last edited by ochotona on Wed Apr 29, 2015 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pet Hog
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by Pet Hog » Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:37 am

Inspired by ochotona's hope for a 7% return this year, I ran some numbers for the first third of PP 2015.  Not great performance, but not terrible, at +1.55% nominal (0.99% real).  Annualized, that would be about 4.7% nominal.  With almost no inflation, we're on track for quite an average real PP return.

YTD returns (dividends reinvested; Dec 31, 2014 to Apr 29, 2015)
TLT: +0.46%
VTI: +3.39%
IAU: +1.75%
SHY: +0.63%
PP Total: +1.55%
Inflation: +0.56% (end Dec 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +0.99%

Year-over-year, it's been a slightly above average period: 6.20% nominal (6.60% real):

YOY returns (div reinvested; Apr 29, 2014 to Apr 29, 2015)
TLT: +16.85%
VTI: +14.37%
IAU: –7.32%
SHY: +0.90%
PP Total: +6.20%
Inflation: –0.40% (end Apr 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +6.60%

I don't know about you folks, but I've been pleased with the boring, slow-but-steady PP performance lately.
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ochotona
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by ochotona » Thu Apr 30, 2015 5:24 am

Now that you mention it, why does Morningstar say that YTD TLO performance is +3%? That's weird. Annualized? But it doesn't say that. Now I am not sure what the case is. But it isn't flat, we get interest.
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by iwealth » Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:12 am

ochotona wrote: Now that you mention it, why does Morningstar say that YTD TLO performance is +3%? That's weird. Annualized? But it doesn't say that. Now I am not sure what the case is. But it isn't flat, we get interest.
From Morningstar...sort of small print, but not that small:

"Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD (Price) return as of 03/31/2015.  Barclays US Agg Bond TR USD (NAV) return as of 03/31/2015.  Long Government (Price) return as of 03/31/2015.  Long Government (NAV) return as of 03/31/2015.  TLO (Price) return as of 03/31/2015.  TLO (NAV) return as of 03/31/2015."

If you look at the trailing total returns, you'll see the YTD price is +0.25% as of 4/29/15.
Last edited by iwealth on Thu Apr 30, 2015 8:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by dragoncar » Thu Apr 30, 2015 2:45 pm

Pet Hog wrote: Inspired by ochotona's hope for a 7% return this year, I ran some numbers for the first third of PP 2015.  Not great performance, but not terrible, at +1.55% nominal (0.99% real).  Annualized, that would be about 4.7% nominal.  With almost no inflation, we're on track for quite an average real PP return.

YTD returns (dividends reinvested; Dec 31, 2014 to Apr 29, 2015)
TLT: +0.46%
VTI: +3.39%
IAU: +1.75%
SHY: +0.63%
PP Total: +1.55%
Inflation: +0.56% (end Dec 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +0.99%

Year-over-year, it's been a slightly above average period: 6.20% nominal (6.60% real):

YOY returns (div reinvested; Apr 29, 2014 to Apr 29, 2015)
TLT: +16.85%
VTI: +14.37%
IAU: –7.32%
SHY: +0.90%
PP Total: +6.20%
Inflation: –0.40% (end Apr 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +6.60%

I don't know about you folks, but I've been pleased with the boring, slow-but-steady PP performance lately.
I think you need to update yer numbers today
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by Pet Hog » Thu Apr 30, 2015 3:59 pm

Here you go, dragoncar.  No fun today.  Now we're on track for a below-average, yet positive, year.  But YOY, we are still slightly above average (I consider +5.2% real as my benchmark).  If I remember, I'll update the real yields and inflation numbers when the CPI-U is announced for April on May 22.

YTD returns (dividends reinvested; Dec 31, 2014 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +0.63%
VTI: +2.27%
IAU: +0.00%
SHY: +0.62%
PP Total: +0.88% (+2.70% annualized)
Inflation: +0.56% (end Dec 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +0.32% (+0.98% annualized)

YOY returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2014 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +16.57%
VTI: +12.72%
IAU: –8.48%
SHY: +0.82%
PP Total: +5.41%
Inflation: –0.40% (end Apr 2014 to end Mar 2015)
PP real: +5.81%
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by Pet Hog » Thu Apr 30, 2015 4:19 pm

For a longer-term view...

Five-year returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2010 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +60.28%
VTI: +95.60%
IAU: –0.87%
SHY: +4.31%
PP Total: +39.83% (+6.94% annualized)
Inflation: +8.31% (end Apr 2010 to end Mar 2015; +1.61% annualized)
PP real: +5.33% annualized

Ten-year returns (dividends reinvested; Apr 30, 2005 to Apr 30, 2015)
TLT: +98.82%
VTI: +133.77%
IAU: +163.59%
SHY: +27.34%
PP Total: +105.88% (+7.49% annualized)
Inflation: +21.34% (end Apr 2005 to end Mar 2015; +1.95% annualized)
PP real: +5.54% annualized
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sophie
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by sophie » Thu Apr 30, 2015 9:49 pm

You might want to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  A lot of money flowed out of volatile assets today and into cash, and it's likely going to show up somewhere (e.g. bonds) eventually.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... tes-plunge
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buddtholomew
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Re: TLT Negative YTD

Post by buddtholomew » Fri May 01, 2015 9:36 am

sophie wrote: You might want to wait and see what happens tomorrow.  A lot of money flowed out of volatile assets today and into cash, and it's likely going to show up somewhere (e.g. bonds) eventually.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... tes-plunge
Down another 1.4% at the moment.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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ochotona
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BONDS... don't worry, be somewhat happy

Post by ochotona » Tue May 05, 2015 7:32 am

Budd, this is why I don't worry about bond volatility as compared to stock volatility. VUSTX in blue,  Schwab 1000 Fund in red (why SNXFX? I used to own it, and the ticker symbol sticks in my head. It has a long history, and it's broader than the S&P500). Remember, you get interest along with your VUSTX, much more than you get with stocks.

If you're going to worry about anything, worry that another 40%-50% stock market decline could hit, as has twice in the prior 15 years. Which is why I'm setting sell stops (another thread). I'd rather get stopped out a -20% than make a trip to the basement.

Image
Last edited by ochotona on Tue May 05, 2015 7:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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