The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

Moderator: Global Moderator

pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1190
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:42 am

Tortoise wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:39 am
boglerdude wrote:
Sun Mar 29, 2020 11:28 pm
Only the Fed would buy long bonds with negative rates. When does it make sense to underweight them in the PP?
This is a good question. What percentage of total Treasury debt would need to be held by the Fed before the Treasury market could cease to be considered a true “market” in the normal sense (i.e. many buyers and sellers)?

Would Harry Browne have advocated continuing to hold an asset for which a normal market no longer exists?
There is still a market. Matter of fact, it turns into a shrinking market, which means that the moves of the people in the market have a more pronounced effect. Bonds have worked out very well for people in Japan and the EU. I see no reason why they won't continue to work here for the deflation hedge that Harry chose them. Moreover, there are not any other better options available.
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 582
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by boglerdude » Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:35 am

Zero lower bound. Stocks can go to infinity w/inflation, bonds cant. How has a Japanese version of EDV done, when 30yr rates can only move between 0% and .5%
pmward
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 1190
Joined: Thu Jan 24, 2019 4:39 pm

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Thu Apr 02, 2020 10:41 am

boglerdude wrote:
Thu Apr 02, 2020 3:35 am
Zero lower bound. Stocks can go to infinity w/inflation, bonds cant. How has a Japanese version of EDV done, when 30yr rates can only move between 0% and .5%
30 year rates are NOT controlled by the Fed. They are not pinned at 0%. The market can take them much lower. The only rate the Fed sets is the overnight rate. The rest are set by the market. And the Fed is buying long treasuries right now, which places downward pressure on long yields.
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 582
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by boglerdude » Mon Apr 13, 2020 11:40 pm

"What has happened with German and Japanese versions of EDV? If the rate moves from 1% to .5% does that mean the fund increases ~25%? in value (because you'd collect twice the interest over 30 years at 1% compared to .5%). So would (does?) Japanese/German EDV bounce around between -1% to 1% with huge swings?"

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewto ... 6#p5181336
boglerdude
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 582
Joined: Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:40 am
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by boglerdude » Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 am

Dalio Says 'You'd Be Pretty Crazy' to Hold Bonds Right Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jmXZkfUZwY
User avatar
Dieter
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 420
Joined: Sat Sep 01, 2012 10:51 am

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Dieter » Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:25 am

boglerdude wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 am
Dalio Says 'You'd Be Pretty Crazy' to Hold Bonds Right Now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jmXZkfUZwY
He says bonds today are a bad bad investment like they were from 1930 - 1945.

They do look like a good diversifier from 37 - 46 per the following -- https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/0 ... -scenario/

And he basically seems to be saying to put money in stock of good companies as the alternative?

I do share some concerns. Most likely inflation IMO, but damn, I think going to be some shocks along the way....
User avatar
dualstow
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 10760
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:18 am
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:12 am

Dieter wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:25 am
boglerdude wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 am
Dalio Says 'You'd Be Pretty Crazy' to Hold Bonds Right Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jmXZkfUZwY
...
And he basically seems to be saying to put money in stock of good companies as the alternative?
...
Ha! Pass
Lenovo To Sell OEM Ubuntu PCs To the Public (Tom's Hardware)
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:31 am

dualstow wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:12 am
Dieter wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:25 am
boglerdude wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 am
Dalio Says 'You'd Be Pretty Crazy' to Hold Bonds Right Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jmXZkfUZwY
...
And he basically seems to be saying to put money in stock of good companies as the alternative?
...
Ha! Pass
even i disagree with dalio .... never ever try to use stocks as a proxy for fixed income investments. at least use high yield as a proxy
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3317
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Fri Apr 17, 2020 11:59 am

mathjak107 wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 7:31 am
dualstow wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 6:12 am
Dieter wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:25 am
boglerdude wrote:
Fri Apr 17, 2020 12:49 am
Dalio Says 'You'd Be Pretty Crazy' to Hold Bonds Right Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jmXZkfUZwY
...
And he basically seems to be saying to put money in stock of good companies as the alternative?
...
Ha! Pass
even i disagree with dalio .... never ever try to use stocks as a proxy for fixed income investments. at least use high yield as a proxy

VIG
User avatar
mathjak107
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 2896
Joined: Fri Jun 19, 2015 2:54 am
Location: bayside queens ny
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by mathjak107 » Fri Apr 17, 2020 1:34 pm

Vig is never a proxy for fixed income ...they are stocks end of story ..when stocks sink it sinks ..I owned vig for quite a while ....
User avatar
Ad Orientem
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3317
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:47 pm
Location: Florida USA
Contact:

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Tue May 05, 2020 7:47 pm

Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel declares end to the 40-year bull market in bonds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/forty-y ... iegel.html
User avatar
pugchief
Executive Member
Executive Member
Posts: 3720
Joined: Tue Jun 26, 2012 2:41 pm
Location: suburbs of Chicago, IL

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pugchief » Tue May 05, 2020 7:50 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 7:47 pm
Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel declares end to the 40-year bull market in bonds

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/forty-y ... iegel.html
If Krugman had said it, you could back up truck buying LTT. Siegel is at least worth a large trunkful, tho.
Post Reply