The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Tue Dec 23, 2014 4:49 pm

blackomen wrote: Murphy's law: the day I make a contribution to my PP, some asset drops the ball..  this time, it's bonds (but thankfully, I added most of my contribution to gold since that was my most underweight asset and I was rebalancing from contributions.)
Don't even think about it. Bonds could go up next year, and gold could fall further for years. Harry's law.
Dow + 1,000 pts ~11:40 EST Friday
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buddtholomew
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Tue Dec 23, 2014 5:35 pm

Although I have my preferred asset/s, maintaining a neutral position provides the ultimate comfort.
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Dec 29, 2014 3:20 pm

What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee  8)
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Greg
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Greg » Tue Dec 30, 2014 8:43 am

dualstow wrote: What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee  8)
aww they are almost there hah. I will admit, it did take me some thinking at one point to understand how the bond yield could affect price so much.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by moda0306 » Tue Dec 30, 2014 11:08 am

1NV35T0R (Greg) wrote:
dualstow wrote: What's Driving LT Treasuries This Year?
http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 0&t=154060
hee hee hee  8)
aww they are almost there hah. I will admit, it did take me some thinking at one point to understand how the bond yield could affect price so much.
I had the "LT.bond aha moment" once in college studying how to account for bonds using "General Accounting Principles."

I was immediately interested and a tad taken aback at how bonds worked unintuitively. I found it so much more appealing than the alpha/beta/ratio stock pricing business.... Which seemed a lot more prone to unknown variables.

It wasn't until 2008 hit that I saw how well LTT's did and felt like I'd just discovered a new element.  At that point, all I'd heard about LT bonds was "careful... When rates rise you'll lose your shirt."

Not that bonds are a superior asset class... But its a shame more people don't see them for their diversification benefit.
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

- Thomas Paine
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:41 pm

moda0306 wrote: I had the "LT.bond aha moment" once in college studying how to account for bonds using "General Accounting Principles."
Well you're way ahead of me. I didn't know the investing world existed outside of stocks and lottery tickets when I was in college.
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dualstow
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Mon Jan 05, 2015 11:43 am

Ho hum, another 300-point drop in the Dow and 1+% gain in LT treasuries.
TLT breaching 129...
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by moda0306 » Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:08 pm

dualstow wrote: Ho hum, another 300-point drop in the Dow and 1+% gain in LT treasuries.
TLT breaching 129...
I love when TLT does "its thing." 
"Men did not make the earth. It is the value of the improvements only, and not the earth itself, that is individual property. Every proprietor owes to the community a ground rent for the land which he holds."

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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by goodasgold » Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:14 pm

I feel sorry for all those folks, years ago, who stampeded out of bonds because the Wall Street "experts" told them that "bond rates have nowhere to go but up."

Well, they will go up some day, but in the meantime I am harvesting the rewards of St. Harry B's well-known scripture: chapter 4, verse 25, also known as 4X25.

Amen.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by buddtholomew » Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:53 pm

Nice to see gold stepping up as well. To be honest, I would rather have gold outpace treasuries as yields have no where to go but up  ::)
"The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool" --Feynman.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Lang » Mon Jan 05, 2015 2:57 pm

Swiss government bonds also went up significantly today, bringing yields to historic lows.

50 year yield - 0.744%
30 year yield - 0.666%
10 year yield - 0.280%
up to 6 year yields - negative.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Reub » Mon Jan 05, 2015 3:52 pm

goodasgold wrote: I feel sorry for all those folks, years ago, who stampeded out of bonds because the Wall Street "experts" told them that "bond rates have nowhere to go but up."

Well, they will go up some day, but in the meantime I am harvesting the rewards of St. Harry B's well-known scripture: chapter 4, verse 25, also known as 4X25.

Amen.

Yes, Amen! Let's also give MediumTex some credit because he has been a huge proponent of long bonds over the past few years as an important part of the overall portfolio. I sure wish him well!
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