The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.
Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.

Do you guys mean that TLT might start becoming unstable for whatever reason? Possibly I guess...always better to hold the bonds directly if you can. ER 0 that way.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:18 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am
Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.
...
+1

The economy and the movements of markets may be as complicated as the weather. Running a pp is about as simple as wearing a raincoat or bringing along an umbrella.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Fri Aug 16, 2019 9:49 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am
pmward wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.
Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.

Do you guys mean that TLT might start becoming unstable for whatever reason? Possibly I guess...always better to hold the bonds directly if you can. ER 0 that way.
Agreed, that's why I said that if someone is holding a PP they should not pay much mind to it. It's not that they might become unstable, it's just that we are close to resistance so the odds of a short to medium term pullback within the channel are increased. But like I mentioned, it is possible that we could actually break out above the channel line and really accelerate to the upside. Most importantly, it's still an upward trend so over the long term skies are still blue to the upside. So while he correctly pointed out that a couple days ago the resistance level channel line was about 155, it's slightly higher with each day, week, and month that passes. I'm personally not worried one bit about purchasing bonds in my GB with fresh cash at the moment. If I were looking to do a short to medium term trade however, I would look elsewhere.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:42 pm

I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash...
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 16, 2019 3:01 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:42 pm
I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash...
Does she usually take in interest in charts? I can’t get my other half interested in investing, let alone the pp or charts. She likes math and science but...money is for spending. :P
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:49 pm

She's a scientist so she knows how to read charts and graphs. She also has that woman's intuition for when something is a good deal and when it is overpriced.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Fri Aug 16, 2019 5:34 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:42 pm
I showed my TLT chart to my wife she told me to sell some. I did when my tight trailing stop alert went off. More and more cash...
I'm not so sure cash is any better of an investment at this point in time. Cash is turning back into a fixed expense, lol. Seems to me like maybe trading something likely to go up for something almost sure to go down.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:56 pm

ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:49 pm
She's a scientist so she knows how to read charts and graphs. She also has that woman's intuition for when something is a good deal and when it is overpriced.
I'm trying very hard not to be offended by this discussion, but I'm failing miserably.

So it's my "women's intuition" that gets me publications in Nature journals, is it? And you're graciously admitting I might just know how to read charts and graphs? Geez guys...here's a news flash for you: your wives are intelligent human beings whose interests might or might not align with yours. We are not, contrary to popular belief, a different species of house pet.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:16 pm

sophie wrote:
Sat Aug 17, 2019 1:56 pm
ochotona wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 4:49 pm
She's a scientist so she knows how to read charts and graphs. She also has that woman's intuition for when something is a good deal and when it is overpriced.
I'm trying very hard not to be offended by this discussion, but I'm failing miserably.

So it's my "women's intuition" that gets me publications in Nature journals, is it? And you're graciously admitting I might just know how to read charts and graphs? Geez guys...here's a news flash for you: your wives are intelligent human beings whose interests might or might not align with yours. We are not, contrary to popular belief, a different species of house pet.
I'm sorry, but you need to take a stress pill and think it over. I wasn't referring to you, I was referring to my wife. Also, she's the one who often talks about intuitive feminine ways of knowing, and how men lack them and get into trouble because they are wrapped up in their own head and their own ideas about how things should be instead of seeing how things are. Put another way by Dave Ramsey, "Men have no risk bone".

Men will talk and theorize about agricultural trade policy, and women do too, but women in many households are more prone to have to buy food and feed their families, which gives them more insights of a gut-level type.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:16 pm

In case I'm one of the guys in "geez guys", let me just reiterate that she has the smarts but not the interest.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Smith1776 » Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:05 pm

I've read some of the behavioural economics stuff dealing in this area of men vs. women in investing.

I don't doubt that women have just as good a capacity to understand stock market numbers, charts, and graphs as men do.

However, my understanding is that women generally get better investment results than men because they don't bother with paying attention to that data. Easier to stay the course when you ignore all that.
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