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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:45 pm
by pmward
Thanks Kriegs!

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:53 pm
by dualstow
Kriegsspiel wrote:
Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:37 pm
In the spirit of technovelist, I'd like to take credit for this boom in bonds, as I sold a few immediately prior to the huge jumps recently. That is all, you're welcome.
Might turn out to be a prescient decision.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:19 am
by dualstow
Looks like we could be in for another pp-friendly day.

https://imgur.com/a/BMouofa

I snapped the pic linked above a couple of days ago but was unable to upload it from my tablet.

{Edited for grammar}

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
by whatchamacallit
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
by pmward
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am
by Xan
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:42 pm
by pmward
Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13
Yeah I saw that. And with the Fed not editing out discussions on negative interest in their minutes, and their changing of language from "zero lower bound" to "effective lower bound" (of which "effective lower bound" is speculated to be in the realm of -10%) I would say that it feels like they are preparing us for negative rates. It feels an awful lot like how Bernanke discussed QE a long time prior to actually implementing it. I hate to say it, but they are showing us their hand.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm
by Ad Orientem
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:44 pm
by modeljc
Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.
BOY I hear that! You are so right! I did sell a very little today just to feel I had shorten the duration just a fraction. Wow I just can't believe that we only have 600 or so worldwide on this board! What a overall bad allocation as we don't have any believers. Ground teeth is not what I feel. For me it's I am so dumb to have this allocation as we know rates are going a lot, lot higher.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:24 pm
by Tortoise
Since 2010 when I started investing in the 4x25 PP, long-term Treasuries have been the most surprising asset by far.

It’s my least favorite PP asset that’s always the hardest for me to buy, but it keeps surprising me by swooping in to buoy the portfolio at unexpected times. It seems to perform the best when people are trash-talking it the most.

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
by ochotona
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view

Re: The Bond Dream Room

Posted: Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:09 am
by ochotona
Sorry chart is working now... Please look