The Bond Dream Room

Discussion of the Bond portion of the Permanent Portfolio

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whatchamacallit
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by whatchamacallit » Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am

Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am

whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
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Xan
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Xan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am

pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13
pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:42 pm

Xan wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:54 am
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
Greenspan says 0% is just a number:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ex-fe ... 2019-08-13
Yeah I saw that. And with the Fed not editing out discussions on negative interest in their minutes, and their changing of language from "zero lower bound" to "effective lower bound" (of which "effective lower bound" is speculated to be in the realm of -10%) I would say that it feels like they are preparing us for negative rates. It feels an awful lot like how Bernanke discussed QE a long time prior to actually implementing it. I hate to say it, but they are showing us their hand.
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Ad Orientem
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Ad Orientem » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm

pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by modeljc » Wed Aug 14, 2019 5:44 pm

Ad Orientem wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:39 pm
pmward wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 11:30 am
whatchamacallit wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:14 am
Fun perspective.

Record set on 30 year us bonds:

https://www.nytimes.com/1982/02/05/busi ... bonds.html
Ding ding, all time highs. So much for all those people that were convinced the bond bull was dead and that yields had nowhere to go but up.
All bow before the genius of Harry Browne. The future is indeed unpredictable. Here we are with the HBPP being lifted in large part by what I think can be safely called its most unpopular component. I can't count the number of times I have ground my teeth at the thought of that giant allocation to a doomed asset.
BOY I hear that! You are so right! I did sell a very little today just to feel I had shorten the duration just a fraction. Wow I just can't believe that we only have 600 or so worldwide on this board! What a overall bad allocation as we don't have any believers. Ground teeth is not what I feel. For me it's I am so dumb to have this allocation as we know rates are going a lot, lot higher.
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Tortoise
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by Tortoise » Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:24 pm

Since 2010 when I started investing in the 4x25 PP, long-term Treasuries have been the most surprising asset by far.

It’s my least favorite PP asset that’s always the hardest for me to buy, but it keeps surprising me by swooping in to buoy the portfolio at unexpected times. It seems to perform the best when people are trash-talking it the most.
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm

Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
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ochotona
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by ochotona » Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:09 am

Sorry chart is working now... Please look
pmward
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by pmward » Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am

ochotona wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.
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sophie
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by sophie » Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am

pmward wrote:
Thu Aug 15, 2019 11:09 am
ochotona wrote:
Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:07 pm
Seems to me TLT starts to bang it's head on the ceiling when it hits 155. Click here, because darn it, Tinypic is going away.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e9kyV6 ... rHSm-/view
Trend channels can be broken out of, and generally when that happens the old resistance line becomes the lower support line going forward. With our Fed I wouldn't be surprised if this happens in the coming years. That being said, they are considered strong resistance when tested 3 or more times, so it won't be easy. And even if we don't break above it, there's no reason why we can't just hug the line and follow it up. It is also an upward trending channel, and it's a strong upward trend, so just because we are close to the resistance level doesn't mean we have to pull back. If I were short term trading I wouldn't buy here, but for a PP like long term buy and hold, it's fine to still buy here. Better to buy here than not buy at all, imo.
Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.

Do you guys mean that TLT might start becoming unstable for whatever reason? Possibly I guess...always better to hold the bonds directly if you can. ER 0 that way.
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Re: The Bond Dream Room

Post by dualstow » Fri Aug 16, 2019 8:18 am

sophie wrote:
Fri Aug 16, 2019 6:51 am
Horse race talk again?

Whether or not to buy a PP asset has nothing to do with trend channels, resistance lines, support lines, or whatever else is in here that I can't understand BC (before coffee). You buy to stay within your rebalance limits.
...
+1

The economy and the movements of markets may be as complicated as the weather. Running a pp is about as simple as wearing a raincoat or bringing along an umbrella.
pariah — 1610s member of a low caste in S. India; Tamil (Dravidian) “drummer”, as members of the lowest caste played drums at festivals. “social outcast,” 1819.
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